The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

Fractal could you Post AUDUSD chart please lol!

"Fractal could you Post AUDUSD chart please lol!"

Here you go bro (upper IR STS taken):

50 pips on that EJ long. candle poked through the previous double top to the left. just at the shorties SLs zone. time for some profits again. thanks FF

Brilliant timing thank you Fractal, look at that get hit lol. Shorts it is for me.

So gold,DM have strong long bias?

It seems on the AUD USD chart that there were significant longs riding that ride up with the SM on its way to the STS it just hit. They seem to have tolerated the longs there with only one move down early on. Are those longs still in their trades?

I think AU wont go short until 0.74

You could be right my friend, heavy volume node up there. I filled short(s) at 0.737942

Yep.

I looked at UJ yesterday and smiled because without FF's chart or any indicators I could easily tell that the resistance at 111 will be broken to take out stops above there. I just calmly waited and voila!

Thanks FractalFreak, the charts are beginning to make sense.

Hi FF, I am hoping to get a detail response. On surface, it might appear a noob question so bear with me. In overall terms, trading is either a bounce or a breakout. It is either divergence from mean or reversion to mean, it is either trend following or counter trend following. The holding pips range or duration of trade defines the type of trader we are.

I am trying to bring your focus on pinpointing WHEN to enter. Knowing what we know, Imo, timing is everything when playing this game of cat and mouse!

With that said, Following possibilities are available to us to avoid being part of DM:

1) Scalp few pips in the drection of the prevailing trend (towards stops, towards fakeouts, towards spikes etc). This is my preferred style of automation that jives well with my personality as I like to stack and get aggressive when timing is in my favor Unfortunately, this means larger stop loss (I use equity stops) or inverse risk reward, faster profit taking, slower/bigger loss taking, faster and awesome looking balance curve and equity curve with bigger than normal equity drops hoping to come ahead in the end of my accounting period...weekly or monthly
2) Do the inverse. By this I mean going against the crowd (beat the SM inverse narrative), going against the trend, counter trend trading assuming bigger nber of Stops accummulations and anticipating stronger and quicker reversals. Perhaps tighter stops, smalller losses, bigger profiting, better RR and better equity growth curve.

Regardless of timeframe, which one of the above is statistically speaking superior (profitable?) to avoid being part of DM?

Which style do you prefer to avoid being part of DMs - scalping, rangebound/gridding, day trading, swing trading, long term position trading?

If you were to trade a naked chart with this information, how would you enter a trade once you know the direction? Wait for manipulation sign to reveal and then quickly jump on it or wait for confirmation or retest ?

Knowing where price is headed is only part of the equation. Once you insert your own order into the position bar, anything can happen based on the number of open positions plus the size of your order. What position sizing scheme would you recommend ?

I added more shorts at 0.739473

"50 pips on that EJ long. candle poked through the previous double top to the left. just at the shorties SLs zone. time for some profits again. thanks FF"


Welcome pamc.

Take profits.
Horrido.

FF

"So gold,DM have strong long bias?"

Yes, but after it came down so much against them, I would stay away from Gold. Too late now bro.

FF

"
I looked at UJ yesterday and smiled because without FF's chart or any indicators I could easily tell that the resistance at 111 will be broken to take out stops above there. I just calmly waited and voila!
Thanks FractalFreak, the charts are beginning to make sense."

You are welcome brother.

Stay safe.

FF

I am short from 0.74

"
1) Scalp few pips in the drection of the prevailing trend (towards stops, towards fakeouts, towards spikes etc). This is my preferred style of automation that jives well with my personality as I like to stack and get aggressive when timing is in my favor Unfortunately, this means larger stop loss (I use equity stops) or inverse risk reward, faster profit taking, slower/bigger loss taking, faster and awesome looking balance curve and equity curve with bigger than normal equity drops hoping to come ahead in the end of my accounting period...weekly or monthly"


Ok bro, so;
I would not recommend to limit the general approach too much.
As you can see from my live trading videos; sometimes I go for a breakout, a pullback, a scalp.....sometimes even reversal (despite rarely).
You can use the MARKET CAUSALITY to trade long-term, medium-term or short-term.

As it should be clear by now (and as I have said many times); there is NOT only one way to trade it.
It is neither difficult to figure out that MY personal way of trading it (watch the videos) focuses on Pullback entries; while after long trends I at some point start to SKIP trend resumption trades, in particular if the market is OR (outter range).

Regarding stops; well, super-tight stops will generally not work, watch the video on "SM Short-term games". Otherwise, DM traders could place GOOD risk-reward trades on lower time frames and make money overall with a 45% win-loss ratio only. SM would not allow that too happen.

Regarding Reversals, these work better on the H4 (I did not have time to make a respective video yet).


"2) Do the inverse. By this I mean going against the crowd (beat the SM inverse narrative), going against the trend, counter trend trading assuming bigger nber of Stops accummulations and anticipating stronger and quicker reversals. Perhaps tighter stops, smalller losses, bigger profiting, better RR and better equity growth curve."

NO. Quite the opposite. Not difficult to see that DM tends to trade "reversals", with the idea of entering "cheaply" into the market, just to be driven into drawdown more and more. In fact, this you can see more often than not. Out of all setups, trading reversals is most difficult (because it only works after the big stops have been taken and DM starts to SWITCH to the other side! I call that "DM Switch").

"Regardless of timeframe, which one of the above is statistically speaking superior (profitable?) to avoid being part of DM?"

So firstly, it is NOT regardless of TF. As I said, in general reversals work better on the H4 or daily and there is a reason for that.
But no, to answer your question, trading reversals is statistically INFERIOR to pullbacks, breakouts, scalps. As described above.

"Which style do you prefer to avoid being part of DMs - scalping, rangebound/gridding, day trading, swing trading, long term position trading?
If you were to trade a naked chart with this information, how would you enter a trade once you know the direction? Wait for manipulation sign to reveal and then quickly jump on it or wait for confirmation or retest ?"

As you can see, I am adaptive in my own trading. I trade the markets according to the MACRO and MICRO STRUCTURE (=CAUSALITY).
Sometimes I get 3 quick scalps in a row. Sometimes I hold a position for more than a week. Sometimes I do SKIP the whole sessions. As explained, SM changes the "speed" and "dynamics" of the markets a a lot, and I ADAPT to that. Adjust to what THEY have on their menue, do NOT impose your own framework on the market. That is also why most statistical systems fail, by the way.


"Knowing where price is headed is only part of the equation. Once you insert your own order into the position bar, anything can happen based on the number of open positions plus the size of your order. What position sizing scheme would you recommend ?"

GOOD question. YES. Firstly, yes, while the DM traders tend to be rather slow (look at charts), YES, the causality CAN change. In fact, while that happens RARELY, there is a known phenomenon of a "DM switch" in which "suddenly" massive DM positions appear in the "wrong direction". It does NOT happen often, but if, I NEED to switch, too. These are the rare cases which can lead to losing trades (if you do NOT switch with the DM). Regarding stops; watch the video on the "stop dance"; RARELY, DM pulls away their stops, as shown, the SM does NOT run behind them but actually moves the price in the opposite direction. In most cases, the DM then pulls their stops closer again and SM does the HUNT.

Regarding "positions sizing", YES, the market causality ALLOWS you to actually correctly evaluate a trade setup.
That means; more DM positions, bigger and closer stops, fitting news plausibility, ranges, correlation to main market, SM levels etc. imply more leverage and VICE VERSA. If for example, EURUSD has a LOW bias as this morning, just SKIP or trade SMALL. But if there are the HIGH CONF setups, you can go IN.
Also, regarding position trades, I normally plan my entries in 3 stages. So I place a first third, then another third if it goes a bit against me etc.

GOOD questions!

Today VEEFX increwases the CIQ to 59!

Congrats!

FF

Believe me, the best thing is when you actually KNOW when NOT to trade.

;-)

Stay safe.

FF