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USD/TRY

  • #1,021
  • Edited 5:44pm Jul 2, 2018 3:18pm | Edited 5:44pm
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} Excellent. Do you think sentiment is weary of Erdogan's behavior? The Lira is losing strength.
I think, despite rapid depreciation in last months, Lira is one of the most vulnerable emerging market currencies..its vulnerability is mostly due to political and geopolitical reasons..of course, economics has ongoing problems such as current account deficit, oil prices, private sector fx debts etc.. however, political uncertainty (despite election win) and unpredictability (considering last 5 years'wrong policies and exploit of state of emergency) are more important negative factors for lira..expectations are still bad after election..morgan stanley, commerzbank etc. expecting lower lira at the end of year..but, we may linger on around here in july, since still some little hopes with new system for stability..next week new cabinet will be declared probably..also, as i say before, we may see some correction in USD index in july, if Trump doesnt continue tweeting whole july there is some voting for tariffs in july 6, i heart at news today..so, we may see some tension in the market until then (trade wars)..then i expect relief rally again..also depends on tomrrow inflation data, investors may expect some more increase at next meeting from Central Bank (24 july meeting)..these events will cause volatility..overall, in summary, i m very long in medium long terms, but we may range 3-8 weeks around 4.50-4.70.. we sholud follow carefully intraday price action..and shouldnt forget always main trend is up..and suddenly with some events, we may rocket up to the sky...

edit: Central Bank meeting date is 24 july..i typed wrong above..corrected now
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,022
  • Edited 4:58pm Jul 2, 2018 4:08pm | Edited 4:58pm
Long again at 4.6190..4.64-4.65 looks reachable targets for tomorrow before inflation data..


Edit: we are now around 4h 200 MA..it is holding now..for tomorrow, it seems we will visit 4h 50&100 MAs above around 4.648..most likely this up movement will happen before inflation data (inflation data will come at London open time)..after inflation data, maybe some pullback to down..or sky up if infaltion is much higher than expectations..i m planning to exit with profit until data time..see how..
https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try 4h-3july.jpg Size: 361 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,023
  • Edited 8:44pm Jul 2, 2018 7:09pm | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting blackwinter
Long again at 4.6190..4.64-4.65 looks reachable targets for tomorrow before inflation data.. Edit: we are now around 4h 200 MA..it is holding now..for tomorrow, it seems we will visit 4h 50&100 MAs above around 4.648..most likely this up movement will happen before inflation data (inflation data will come at London open time)..after inflation data, maybe some pullback to down..or sky up if infaltion is much higher than expectations..i m planning to exit with profit until data time..see how.. https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar...

i am suprised that usd/try is down a bit..and offers to buy from 4.6130 now..i didnt like such a drop in this session..but still hope for pop up when approaching inflation data results at London open..see how

edit: closed at 4.628..yuan devaluation continues..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,024
  • Jul 2, 2018 8:57pm Jul 2, 2018 8:57pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} i am suprised that usd/try is down a bit..and offers to buy from 4.6130 now..i didnt like such a drop in this session..but still hope for pop up when approaching inflation data results at London open..see how edit: closed at 4.628..yuan devaluation continues..
today can be very tricky.. maybe no trade or lesser leverage is better for today..i didnt like asian session price action
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,025
  • Jul 2, 2018 9:56pm Jul 2, 2018 9:56pm
At this moment it looks as if it is loading up for a bull run. This is against the bearish stochastic 30min which makes it odd. I cannot see a legit reason for it. I'm not trading. Even if I were, I would still wait for the hour before London and the hour upon London Open.
  • #1,026
  • Jul 2, 2018 11:55pm Jul 2, 2018 11:55pm
Quoting 2dollardog
At this moment it looks as if it is loading up for a bull run. This is against the bearish stochastic 30min which makes it odd. I cannot see a legit reason for it. I'm not trading. Even if I were, I would still wait for the hour before London and the hour upon London Open.
Update: Dollar is bullish and so is this pair. Might retreat at the top of the hour. If does not retreat, I'd be buying.

Don't hold me to it.
  • #1,027
  • Jul 2, 2018 11:59pm Jul 2, 2018 11:59pm
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} Update: Dollar is bullish and so is this pair. Might retreat at the top of the hour. If does not retreat, I'd be buying. Don't hold me to it.
I bought again above 4.62..i ll close ard 4.63..we can see drop after inflation data..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,028
  • Jul 3, 2018 12:06am Jul 3, 2018 12:06am
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} Update: Dollar is bullish and so is this pair. Might retreat at the top of the hour. If does not retreat, I'd be buying. Don't hold me to it.
euro and gbp may go higher today..i m not confident about Dollar bullishness at remaining of the day..so, not confident also usd/try bull..but at least until data result, some up movement is quite likely..see how
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,029
  • Jul 3, 2018 12:32am Jul 3, 2018 12:32am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} I bought again above 4.62..i ll close ard 4.63..we can see drop after inflation data..
i closed with small profit.. i have gbp/jpy longs only now.. i felt some stress with lira but looks bullish now..see wht will happen after inflation data..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,030
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:11am Jul 3, 2018 1:11am
Yeah. I wouldn't touch it right now. Good week for me to be on the sidelines and just watch.
  • #1,031
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:15am Jul 3, 2018 1:15am
Quoting 2dollardog
Yeah. I wouldn't touch it right now. Good week for me to be on the sidelines and just watch.
usd/try is getting very nasty now..lucky i exited already
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,032
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:30am Jul 3, 2018 1:30am
I opened shorts 4.614 lets see what happens

Do u guys know when the inflaction data will be released ?
  • #1,033
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:33am Jul 3, 2018 1:33am
Subs. Thanks and
Regards
  • #1,034
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:40am Jul 3, 2018 1:40am
Quoting LukaszH
I opened shorts 4.614 lets see what happens Do u guys know when the inflaction data will be released ?
20 minutes later..

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,035
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:51am Jul 3, 2018 1:51am
i just sold small amount of usd/try at 4.6250..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,036
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:52am Jul 3, 2018 1:52am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} 20 minutes later.. https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar

I don't know if it is OK to link a tweet; if not; I will have to send charts and this comes easier for me:
https://twitter.com/bernayildiz_/sta...19698776793088

4.6250 Pivot.
Be careful with the data incoming.
I am Turkish, I should know.
  • #1,037
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:52am Jul 3, 2018 1:52am
This pair is extremely bullish or loaded with bull players. Means squat to me before the news, tho. The broker took out stops on the bottom side, fyi.
  • #1,038
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:56am Jul 3, 2018 1:56am
Quoting blackwinter
i just sold small amount of usd/try at 4.6250..
i closed with 10 usd
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,039
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:59am Jul 3, 2018 1:59am
Quoting Berna
{quote} I don't know if it is OK to link a tweet; if not; I will have to send charts and this comes easier for me: https://twitter.com/bernayildiz_/sta...19698776793088 4.6250 Pivot. Be careful with the data incoming. I am Turkish, I should know.

thanks for info we re waiting for data
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #1,040
  • Jul 3, 2018 2:01am Jul 3, 2018 2:01am
it is quite higher than expected..

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
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