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  • #981
  • Jul 1, 2018 7:23am Jul 1, 2018 7:23am
Warning; USDTRY weekly chart is a dirty double top with support/entry at 4.48. I like to trade these. I normally enter these early within a high prob bearish pattern via the lower time frame (on normal pairs).

If it goes this low, it will be the third time it tests and it could give for a nice downward trend which, really, would make sense in the scheme of the post election euphoria.

Just speculating, tho.
  • #982
  • Edited 3:24pm Jul 1, 2018 8:07am | Edited 3:24pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} briefly i guess that, we will see some corrections in main trends in remaining summer season and when we approach to september Fed meeting, also end of holiday season, we will mostl likely see of resuming main trends.. so, my guesses are at attached charts..approximately.. {image} {image} {image} {image}
ok, lets come to the our lovely Usd/Try

in monthly chart, main trend is clearly bullish..but after May, there is a bit lack of momentum..June candlestick is smalller (less volatile) and has a lower high..but still closed higher than May...it suggests we may linger on around here a bit more before next up movement..in additon, we dont see any clear bearish sign yet..

in weekly chart, it seems, bears have taken control..Daily 50 MA is good support below and actually, until there, we dont have any strong support..maybe we may consider also 4.50 as a pysholgogical barrier/support..so, this week we can continue down move...but momentum may slow down when doing down..because after election, it seems volatility has been decreased in recent days..also, when price is down, sellers can be lesser..whwn we approach to 4.50s, buying scalps will be more enjoyable with more confidence..also 4.50s are good place for long for real market players..so i expect some down move this week and maybe next weeks..but those down movements will be limited to 4.50s or Daily 50 MA (at ard 4.46 now) most likely..also, noticed that on tuesday, inflation data is coming for Try..so, we may see week high of this week at tuesday before or after data results..then resume down movement to 4.55 or below..

in daily chart, we are going down slowly..after some surge on monday and tuesday due to inflation data, we may continue down..have not yet a clear sign of up reversal..4.50 and daily 50 MA are probably hold the down movement this summer..and during july and august we may trade 4.46-4.70 range if any political crisis doesnt erupt in the country..

in 4h chart..we are below 200 MA..and we dont see yet a clear sign of up reversal..so, slowly melting down likely..but we may test 200 MA and 100 MA before falling further..

in 1h chart..last week, every up movement is nicely capped by 50 and 100 MAs..there is clear ongoing down movement..1h 100 MA can be good resistance for any up movement this week esp. on monday and tuesday..we dont see yet a clear sign of up reversal..so, hourly chart is bearish..but when we approach to 4.55s, 4.50s selling Usd/Try is becoming more risky..because there is a good chance of pop up again to 4.70s with any political or diplomatic issue..

as a result, very near term looks bearish, but be careful and keep in mind that main trend is bullish..and we are approaching to the very advantegous places to long..so short can be very dangerous around 4.55s, 4.50s (if we go there)..

i hope a very profitable week for all
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try monthly - 1 july.jpg Size: 311 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try weekly - 1 july.jpg Size: 349 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try daily - 1 july.jpg Size: 371 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try 4h - 1 july.jpg Size: 377 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try 4h with MAs - 1 july.jpg Size: 386 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try 1h - 1 july.jpg Size: 390 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd try 1h with MAs - 1 july.jpg Size: 410 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #983
  • Jul 1, 2018 3:35pm Jul 1, 2018 3:35pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} briefly i guess that, we will see some corrections in main trends in remaining summer season and when we approach to september Fed meeting, also end of holiday season, we will mostl likely see of resuming main trends.. so, my guesses are at attached charts..approximately.. {image} {image} {image} {image}
it seems there will be gap down in eur/usd, gbp/usd, gbp/jpy..this can be a buy opportunity..there seems gap up in usd/try..but i would wait for shorting this pair till tuesday inflation data ..


https://xe.com/
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #984
  • Jul 1, 2018 4:02pm Jul 1, 2018 4:02pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} it seems there will be gap down in eur/usd, gbp/usd, gbp/jpy..this can be a buy opportunity..there seems gap up in usd/try..but i would wait for shorting this pair till tuesday inflation data .. https://xe.com/
they closed the gap before open..didnt let to buy
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #985
  • Jul 1, 2018 5:12pm Jul 1, 2018 5:12pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} i m happy with pepperstone but even in pp, it happen sometimes.. crazy spreads such as 500 pips..thats why i dont prefer to use stoploss..instead i follow trades closely..and close trades in a short time, win or lose..especially, when NY close (swap times), spreads are opening..so, first and last hour candlesticks of day can be misleading due to widened spreads..these wide spreads are normalizing later on..so, if leverage are proper and you are familiar with this issue, you can endure that and profit..
usd try opened late today in my broker.. and now 400 pips spread

4.5831 to 4.6244

crazy start haa

if normalize around 4.59 in the following hours, i ll buy some..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #986
  • Jul 1, 2018 8:42pm Jul 1, 2018 8:42pm
this is not Try pair, but want to share with you guys..it looks promising trade..

4h chart implies that we may visit around 145.50 today...now price is around 146.30..looks nice trade..

i m short from 146.20 already..entered a bit early see how
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp jpy 4h - 1 july.jpg Size: 401 KB
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #987
  • Jul 1, 2018 11:41pm Jul 1, 2018 11:41pm
Quoting blackwinter
lastly, there is an important event at next tuesday for Try pairs..monthly inflation rate.. have a good weekend !! https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/calendar
Thank you for the calendar. Very useful!
  • #988
  • Jul 1, 2018 11:42pm Jul 1, 2018 11:42pm
Quoting MisterWhite
{quote} Thank you for the calendar. Very useful!
welcome
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #989
  • Jul 1, 2018 11:43pm Jul 1, 2018 11:43pm
Quoting blackwinter
this is not Try pair, but want to share with you guys..it looks promising trade.. 4h chart implies that we may visit around 145.50 today...now price is around 146.30..looks nice trade.. i m short from 146.20 already..entered a bit early see how {image}
exit with some profit..4h chart is still very promising..i can short again from high..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #990
  • Jul 1, 2018 11:51pm Jul 1, 2018 11:51pm
Today would be an early consideration for my normal scalp. Big players are loaded up as if anticipation for a dollar breakout. The algo's slip a sell out every now and then but it's holding firm above 4.6. It's early. Even the big players have been known to be wrong. Patience pays while the dollar begins it's fake-out routine.

Top of the hour determines losers.

Good trading every one.
  • #991
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:05am Jul 2, 2018 12:05am
Quoting 2dollardog
Today would be an early consideration for my normal scalp. Big players are loaded up as if anticipation for a dollar breakout. The algo's slip a sell out every now and then but it's holding firm above 4.6. It's early. Even the big players have been known to be wrong. Patience pays while the dollar begins it's fake-out routine. Top of the hour determines losers. Good trading every one.
I just bought some usd try at 4.6070..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #992
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:09am Jul 2, 2018 12:09am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} I just bought some usd try at 4.6070..
waovvvv..i m so happy mannn..i bought, then i was writing here..then saw at Tv prices at 4.63 plus..then turn to MT4 back and close right away with 250 pips profit..crazy

what a nice pop up
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #993
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:11am Jul 2, 2018 12:11am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} I just bought some usd try at 4.6070..
i have a sell here 4.62985
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #994
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:11am Jul 2, 2018 12:11am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} waovvvv..i m so happy mannn..i bought, then i was writing here..then saw at Tv prices at 4.63 plus..then turn to MT4 back and close right away with 250 pips profit..crazy what a nice pop up
well done mate
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #995
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:13am Jul 2, 2018 12:13am
ok..sold some bitcoin now..i m done with Try today..i dont like trading bitcoin but gap up will be closed probably in a few days..main trend is down in weekly and monthly at bitcoin..good selling opportunity..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #996
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:13am Jul 2, 2018 12:13am
new president >>>>>>>>>>>>.. the market does not like mxn i have a sell
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #997
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:16am Jul 2, 2018 12:16am
Quoting Aussi
{quote} well done mate
thanks
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #998
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:21am Jul 2, 2018 12:21am
Quoting 2dollardog
Today would be an early consideration for my normal scalp. Big players are loaded up as if anticipation for a dollar breakout.
I'm still net long, by around 40,000 units. Just closed a 5,000 unit trade for $30 profit.
  • #999
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:24am Jul 2, 2018 12:24am
Quoting MisterWhite
{quote} I'm still net long, by around 40,000 units. Just closed a 5,000 unit trade for $30 profit.
Yeah. i think the dollar is gonna stay bullish for a while, but no guarantee. Watch out for top of the hour at London open, she can reverse and won't give noticed until a few minutes in or so. But you probaby already know these moves.
  • #1,000
  • Jul 2, 2018 12:24am Jul 2, 2018 12:24am
Quoting Aussi
new president >>>>>>>>>>>>.. the market does not like mxn i have a sell

Thank you for that. I had been wondering.
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