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  • #3,141
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:29am Jun 28, 2018 11:29am
Fractal is a big key...

I have read Benoit Mandelbrot and Nassim Taled but not "The black swan".
I have read " Fooled by the hazard" from him. Not so bad.
Some interresting stuff in.

Nobody care, it is just to talk about book instead of trading.

Trading books maybe ? lol
  • #3,142
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:30am Jun 28, 2018 11:30am
To make a LONG STORY short;

if you try to SIMULATE price BEHAVIOUR,

the MULTI FRACTAL Model of Asset Returns clearly OUTPERFORMS any other academic model.

NOW, if you want to use the MMFA for predicting price VOLATILITY (based on vol. clustering), YES, it can do that.

But that is where it ends.

In today's markets, the SM Algo Manipulation DOMINATES, as you finally understoof.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,143
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:33am Jun 28, 2018 11:33am
Quoting FractalFreak
"interesting development...have you every wondered why his nickname is "FractalFreak"?" I can tell you myself. When I was still in academics, I did a lot of research on Benoit Mandelbrot's work. I SUGGEST you to read "Fractal Finance" as well as the "(mis)Behaviour of Markets". Both great books. Now, I am ALSO a big fan of NASSIM TALEB. Watch for the BLACK SWAN ;-). HOWEVER, what I am showing you here is to TURN Black Swans into Grey Swans....sometimes Weven White ones... ;-) YES, market moves are fractal. BUT, the "scaling" of prices is NOT infinite....
I've read both of them ,-) and you're right about the scaling (at least in short-term and whoever knows what short-term means).
  • #3,144
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:33am Jun 28, 2018 11:33am
I highly recommend the "Black Swan" as an introduction, and Mandelbrot's books as the real meat.

Well, for the ones who can handle it. I studied Economics, which helps understanding his books (one of the RARE occasions where economics helps)).


If you want an anecdote,

I almost met Mandelbrot when I was a student....however, since I did not finish his books, I did not feel ready to meet and talk to him.

Unfortunately, he died less than a year later.

RIP Benoit.

;-(

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,145
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:33am Jun 28, 2018 11:33am
Quoting FractalFreak
Read this if you have time: {image}
Thank you!!!!!!!!!
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,146
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:34am Jun 28, 2018 11:34am
"I've read both of them ,-) and you're right about the scaling"

Nice.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,147
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:34am Jun 28, 2018 11:34am
"Thank you!!!!!!!!"


You are welcome, dear.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,148
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:35am Jun 28, 2018 11:35am
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  • #3,149
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:35am Jun 28, 2018 11:35am
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  • #3,150
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:37am Jun 28, 2018 11:37am
JUST understand;

Mandelbrot was not so much interested in WHY prices move up or down.

Rather, he was interested in HOW prices move and how this can be modeled.

This is very different.


I am a TRADER. I am interested in WHY markets move. And as you know, I have not only found the answer. My work focuses on the perspective of the TRADER.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,151
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:38am Jun 28, 2018 11:38am
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  • #3,152
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:39am Jun 28, 2018 11:39am
When Mandelbrot talks about "long-term memory", we basically start talking abouyt the "NON-randomness" in price moves.

If you go for a read of "Fractal Finance", do not get turned off by the mathematics. You can handele them with a bit of effort.

There is a lot to win.

He was a GENIOUS.

Bless him.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,153
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:40am Jun 28, 2018 11:40am
I will never forgive that he did not receive the NOBEL PRIZE.

At least they gave him the Wolf PRIZE.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,154
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:41am Jun 28, 2018 11:41am
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  • #3,155
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:42am Jun 28, 2018 11:42am
https://www.ted.com/talks/benoit_man...t_of_roughness
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  • #3,156
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:42am Jun 28, 2018 11:42am
Watch the video if you have time.

Ok, enough about that.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,157
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:44am Jun 28, 2018 11:44am
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  • #3,158
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:44am Jun 28, 2018 11:44am
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  • #3,159
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:46am Jun 28, 2018 11:46am
Quoting FractalFreak
"I've read both of them ,-) and you're right about the scaling" Nice. FF
Fractal fatigue....
  • #3,160
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:48am Jun 28, 2018 11:48am
All coincidence.

;-)))))))

Yeah, you guys really got it....tsss

FF
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