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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #41,281
  • Jun 12, 2018 12:10pm Jun 12, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting RajD
bulls have struggled their climb, however the bears haven't shown any signs of entering in just yet (in the last swing). Would this be considered a good time to enter even if i see a rotating candle at my AOI?? The bears made three attempts and have failed to make a NSL. Have the bears weakened?? Let me know your thoughts Damian {image}
RajD,

I am sure Damian will correct if I am off base. The current expectation is still a NSL on that order flow, however, the failing to make a NSL multiple times significantly weakens the bears but they are still in control until they break your blue line. Also, looking at the price action it qualifies for being range bound or a complex correction. To enter it would be wise to look for a deep correction where you can take on as little risk as possible. Remember to protect since there is a lot of support and resistance on both sides until it breaks.

Building on those thoughts the AOI should be identified as the structure where the risk is acceptable to the potential reward. Once an engagement zone is identified, if price does what you expect coming to and within that AOI, the trade should be taken. We are not here to filter trades. We trade our plan! With that said, if you don’t like that the market is ranging find something else to do until market conditions are more favorable. Not being in a trade is a position.

~PiProspector
  • #41,282
  • Jun 12, 2018 12:25pm Jun 12, 2018 12:25pm
Quoting PiProspector
{quote} RajD, I am sure Damian will correct if I am off base. The current expectation is still a NSL on that order flow, however, the failing to make a NSL multiple times significantly weakens the bears but they are still in control until they break your blue line. Also, looking at the price action it qualifies for being range bound or a complex correction. To enter it would be wise to look for a deep correction where you can take on as little risk as possible. Remember to protect since there is a lot of support and resistance on both sides until...
Thanks PiProspector
  • #41,283
  • Jun 12, 2018 12:38pm Jun 12, 2018 12:38pm
I've been hanging around this thread for almost 6 months now, it's not the only thread I read everyday but it is the only thread I post in. I just wanted to state an observation that these threads really do tend to take on the attitudes of their creators/moderators for better or worse, and in our case for much better. Props to Damian and everyone here for the generous and helpful attitudes that abound. Every thread is not so lucky.
  • #41,284
  • Edited 1:25pm Jun 12, 2018 1:14pm | Edited 1:25pm
These are the market conditions I find most difficult. The YM made a weak NSL so the expectation is a NSL. But it has failed 3 or 4 times now. We are clearly in a complex correction. But I'm not sure if going short is a good idea because the the bears look really weak. So do you go long? Bulls seem to be holding 300 and have more strength but again the 'expectation is the expectation'.
I find in the past when I've tried to trade in these conditions I'm always wrong. Either I go short and there is an expectation failure or I go long and the expectation plays out. Sure I maximize risk/reward but I'm not sure if I'm missing something or just really unlucky.
Anyone have any thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-18 (233 Tick) 2018_06_12 (2_05_35 PM).png Size: 49 KB
  • #41,285
  • Jun 12, 2018 1:33pm Jun 12, 2018 1:33pm
Quoting PipJr
These are the market conditions I find most difficult. The YM made a weak NSL so the expectation is a NSL. But it has failed 3 or 4 times now. We are clearly in a complex correction. But I'm not sure if going short is a good idea because the the bears look really weak. So do you go long? Bulls seem to be holding 300 and have more strength but again the 'expectation is the expectation'. I find in the past when I've tried to trade in these conditions I'm always wrong. Either I go short and there is an expectation failure or I go long and the expectation...
PipJr,

This is a challenging market to trade. Seeing your chart, the top and bottom AOI are what I would see as the trenches that the two enemies have established (bulls/bears). The middle zone is “no man’s land”. I use that term as a descriptor to visualize since as Wikipedia states No man’s land is the area “which neither side wished to cross or seize due to fear of being attacked by the enemy in the process”. The area of strength to enter is only on the top AOI if a bear and the bottom AOI if a bull. The middle AOI is going to get you caught being mauled by both the bulls and bears!

~PiProspector
  • #41,286
  • Jun 12, 2018 1:46pm Jun 12, 2018 1:46pm
Quoting PiProspector
{quote} PipJr, This is a challenging market to trade. Seeing your chart, the top and bottom AOI are what I would see as the trenches that the two enemies have established (bulls/bears). The middle zone is “no man’s land”. I use that term as a descriptor to visualize since as Wikipedia states No man’s land is the area “which neither side wished to cross or seize due to fear of being attacked by the enemy in the process”. The area of strength to enter is only on the top AOI if a bear and the bottom AOI if a bull. The middle AOI is going to get you...
Thanks PiProspector,
That's how I identified the areas as well. The middle rectangle was more for me to know where I was in price action than it was an AOI. I only want to take trades in the top and bottom rectangles. Having said that the expectation has since played out and the only time it entered my AOI for a short was right at market open (9:30EST) so I wasn't prepared to enter then. Had I gone long at any area in the bottom AOI I would have been stopped out. Hence, my dilemma - How do you trade in these markets? Or do we just not trade? If you look at the more immediate OF it seems the bulls had more control of the day and were creating HL's throughout the day.

I guess I'm just looking to see if there is a way to trade these markets with greater than 50% win rate. According to my rules I wouldn't have entered at all but it was awfully tempting to enter long around 300-310 (one could definitely build a case for it). Otherwise I didn't see a good signal to go short (which turned out to be the winning trade).
  • #41,287
  • Jun 12, 2018 2:13pm Jun 12, 2018 2:13pm
Quoting Lundies10
{quote} I decided to trade the sxpiring contract yesterday (06 18) and never found entry as a result of low volume. Price ranged all day. Im still new so all I can tell you about is my experience, but I checked the 09 18 chart after my session and would have found entry there so I believe most traders are on to the new contract.
Hi Lundies10, Thanks for your reply. Yes, I struggled yesterday on the old contract, low volume
But today I switched to YM 9 18 and have just closed my short for +75
  • #41,288
  • Jun 12, 2018 3:43pm Jun 12, 2018 3:43pm
Quoting bmdenton23
I've been hanging around this thread for almost 6 months now, it's not the only thread I read everyday but it is the only thread I post in. I just wanted to state an observation that these threads really do tend to take on the attitudes of their creators/moderators for better or worse, and in our case for much better. Props to Damian and everyone here for the generous and helpful attitudes that abound. Every thread is not so lucky.
Very true!
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #41,289
  • Jun 12, 2018 6:57pm Jun 12, 2018 6:57pm
Quoting yates141
{quote} Hi Lundies10, Thanks for your reply. Yes, I struggled yesterday on the old contract, low volume But today I switched to YM 9 18 and have just closed my short for +75
Thats a good day. Well done. None for me today as a result of work but I will be trading tomorrow. Seems like the quarterly months are a good time to take vacations in the future
  • #41,290
  • Jun 13, 2018 5:32am Jun 13, 2018 5:32am
@PiProspector and @PipJr nice discussion you had Yesterday and good questions and observations. I like this type of discussion as those are the same questions that we all have. I went for the long around 310 as i interpreted this as a longer term PB. I was thinking hey! maybe it will form a spring and turn around to trap late sellers at the bottom of the day. I did wait for volume to become imbalance in favor of the bulls just after we got a couple of tick failure at the low. My stop was a few ticks below the low.
  • #41,291
  • Jun 13, 2018 9:38am Jun 13, 2018 9:38am
I took 4 trades on the 89tick all 4 were losers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-18 (89 Tick) 2018_06_13.png Size: 86 KB
  • #41,292
  • Jun 13, 2018 9:56am Jun 13, 2018 9:56am
Quoting Nikster
I took 4 trades on the 89tick all 4 were losers. {image}
Maybe if you show your analysis and why you chose to enter where you did, we can help you. Based on what I see in this image, your first 3 entries were against the expectation.
  • #41,293
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:16am Jun 13, 2018 10:16am
Quoting Lundies10
{quote} Maybe if you show your analysis and why you chose to enter where you did, we can help you. Based on what I see in this image, your first 3 entries were against the expectation.
Looks like some basic entries expecting support and resistance to hold for the most part. Order flow was not considered. On the 89 Tick chart what you are highlighting is the immediate order flow and those expectations were overlooked.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #41,294
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:20am Jun 13, 2018 10:20am
This week is a tough one a very range bound market for many reasons that are not worth mentioning. As traders, we must understand in what kind of market we are in and remember that sometimes the best trade of the day is to go do something else. Use the time to read and sharpen the skill set. This market condition is also very valuable to help you develop patience and restraint.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #41,295
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:23am Jun 13, 2018 10:23am
Quoting Mr. Pip
This week is a tough one a very range bound market for many reasons that are not worth mentioning. As traders, we must understand in what kind of market we are in and remember that sometimes the best trade of the day is to go do something else. Use the time to read and sharpen the skill set. This market condition is also very valuable to help you develop patience and restraint.

Good advice. And I am glad that you mentioned this situation.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #41,296
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:23am Jun 13, 2018 10:23am
damian is there a bearish gartley being formed at the 233. A-B is slightly above the 61.8 so not sure if that fails the pattern
  • #41,297
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:39am Jun 13, 2018 10:39am
Quoting RajD
damian is there a bearish gartley being formed at the 233. A-B is slightly above the 61.8 so not sure if that fails the pattern
Yes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YM 09-18 (233 Tick) 2018_06_13.png Size: 83 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #41,298
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:40am Jun 13, 2018 10:40am
Tomorrow should be a much better market catch you guys tomorrow
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #41,299
  • Jun 13, 2018 10:45am Jun 13, 2018 10:45am
In my view..... this range bound market seems to be a strong battle at or around 25367.

The really seem to be pole dancing at that number. I think if the bulls are strong and pass that number, then they will make a run for 25552.

If the bears can weaken the bulls and keep them below that number, then I think the bears will make a run for 25180.

Right now, this session seems slower than the asian session during the last week of December.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #41,300
  • Jun 13, 2018 12:29pm Jun 13, 2018 12:29pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
In my view..... this range bound market seems to be a strong battle at or around 25367. The really seem to be pole dancing at that number. I think if the bulls are strong and pass that number, then they will make a run for 25552. If the bears can weaken the bulls and keep them below that number, then I think the bears will make a run for 25180. Right now, this session seems slower than the asian session during the last week of December.
I ended up with 1 trade today for +26.
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