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Jay's Candle Sticker System

  • #121
  • Jun 9, 2018 4:03pm Jun 9, 2018 4:03pm
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Which tuesday night..??? {image}
Do those vertical lines represent tuesdays?
  • #122
  • Jun 9, 2018 4:14pm Jun 9, 2018 4:14pm
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} So hard to find an edge these days...
if you read the contrarian thread, you open trades at sundays going against the crowd(the retail traders) if certain conditions were to met. And usually the profits peak around tuesday nights. than profit taking begins. this was just a suggestions from the guy who started the system, in order to protect profits, not much different than your plan of keeping winning trades. time remains to see if there is an edge or not.
last week there were no valid trades so i cant say anything at the moment. but i will let you know end of the week how it goes.
  • #123
  • Edited 4:31pm Jun 9, 2018 4:15pm | Edited 4:31pm
Quoting yalgaar
{quote} Hey Jay Came across your thread and I find this quite interesting so far. Thanks for posting this. I quickly read most of the posts on this thread. I have also subscribed. I have to say your girlfriend is very smart! I would like to add this which I am pretty sure it will be very helpful to you and many others. About the statement "If the account doubles in a day close all positions" This sounds very good in theory but with a lot of experience of trying many many things myself, for me this statement only bothers me. So IMHO if you think...
I appreciate the comment, I do, with the new strategies I really don't think that the account would double in a day anymore, unless extremely lucky. However, it sounds like your risk profile is a lot more conservative than mine which is fine. I have seen it happen multiple times the doubling and the wiping in the past, risk big, win or lose big.

Thanks for subscribing, what lot size would you suggest?
The prototypical 2%?
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #124
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:28pm Jun 9, 2018 5:28pm
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} I appreciate the comment, I do, with the new strategies I really don't think that the account would double in a day anymore, unless extremely lucky. However, it sounds like your risk profile is a lot more conservative than mine which is fine. I have seen it happen multiple times the doubling and the wiping in the past, risk big, win or lose big. Thanks for subscribing, what lot size would you suggest? The prototypical 2%?

I really found this thread very interesting and seems like it can provide some edge. But I still have to do some detail study of what you have mentioned and also what Americanbulls.com services that they are offering. I am wondering how reliable is their data history they are providing for each pair and its performance based on their signals. Its quite interesting though.

My risk management always depend on detail study of a system. I try to figure out what will be my max drawdown based on studying all possible scenarios. I then also try to calculate the annual ROI. To me if the annual ROI : DD ratio should always be more than 5:1. Anything less than that does not interest me in the Forex market. Once I have figured out my annual ROI : DD ratio, I would decide my lotsize based on my risk tolerance and confidence level for that system.

All the above said, my personal preference and my math for choosing lotsize would be targeting ROI of 100% per year with accepted DD of 20% max. If I am seeing 100% (doubling account) in 1 day...I would think my Lotsize is way too large since I am not willing to handle the risk that it would come with.
  • #125
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:35pm Jun 9, 2018 5:35pm
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} what lot size would you suggest? The prototypical 2%?
I am sorry I didn't provide a direct answer to your simple question since I don't have a simple answer since the way you are trading this involved multiple trades being opened simultaneously. This means you may have 1 trade open at a certain point and you may also have 28 trades open at a certain point (if you are trading the 28 standards) If I were trading this I will just figure out what the max DD possible if I had trades open on all 28 pairs and I would set the Lotsize so that the max drawdown would never ever be more than 20% of my account size.

I hope this help.
  • #126
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:37pm Jun 9, 2018 5:37pm
I just wondered about the following:

1) Do you trade every confirmed signal?
2) Is there ever a situation where you could have 2 opposite signals based on different patterns for the same pair?
  • #127
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:39pm Jun 9, 2018 5:39pm
Quoting yalgaar
{quote} I really found this thread very interesting and seems like it can provide some edge. But I still have to do some detail study of what you have mentioned and also what Americanbulls.com services that they are offering. I am wondering how reliable is their data history they are providing for each pair and its performance based on their signals. Its quite interesting though. My risk management always depend on detail study of a system. I try to figure out what will be my max drawdown based on studying all possible scenarios. I then also try...
Thanks for your insight, I understand how you would approach things. Could be some valuable tools when creating a low-risk low return stable profitable system, after having, of course, used a high-risk system to get the capital needed for the low risk system to provide any decent gains.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #128
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:43pm Jun 9, 2018 5:43pm
Quoting yalgaar
I just wondered about the following: 1) Do you trade every confirmed signal? 2) Is there ever a situation where you could have 2 opposite signals based on different patterns for the same pair?
1. In the past I have traded every confirmed candlestick pattern that I was aware of provided by American bulls, they don't have all 28 pairs, a recent thought has led me to want to only trade signals that have shown profitable in the past. Which is how I will proceed in the future.
2. Nope, an opposite signal is the signal needed to close your current trade, you could just close it, or close it an open a new trade depending upon the strength of the signal.

ps. I did start in January using 2% of equity as my lot size, as my profits and confidence grew I increased my lot size. Sometimes I would fail to make trades because I was busy doing other things, but for the last two months, I have been pretty consistent.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #129
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:44pm Jun 9, 2018 5:44pm
Quoting yalgaar
{quote} I am sorry I didn't provide a direct answer to your simple question since I don't have a simple answer since the way you are trading this involved multiple trades being opened simultaneously. This means you may have 1 trade open at a certain point and you may also have 28 trades open at a certain point (if you are trading the 28 standards) If I were trading this I will just figure out what the max DD possible if I had trades open on all 28 pairs and I would set the Lotsize so that the max drawdown would never ever be more than 20% of my...
I understood your answer, basically at no point would you ever want to have more than 20% of your account at risk at any one time.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #130
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:46pm Jun 9, 2018 5:46pm
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} 1. In the past I have traded every signal provided by American bulls, they don't have all 28 pairs, a recent thought has led me to want to only trade signals that have shown profitable in the past. Which is how I will proceed in the future. 2. Nope, an opposite signal is the signal needed to close your current trade, you could just close it, or close it an open a new trade depending upon the strength of the signal.
Thanks for your quick replies. I appreciate it.
  • #131
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:52pm Jun 9, 2018 5:52pm
Quoting yalgaar
{quote} Thanks for your quick replies. I appreciate it.
Sure no problem, I appreciate the helpful insights. I sorta feel like if you can't explain what you are doing in a logical and precise way, then you might want to examine why you are doing it.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #132
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:53pm Jun 9, 2018 5:53pm
I was not able to locate on Americanbulls.com where it shows all signals that were generated for each pair and their results so far. Is this something you are able to see only after registering with them?
  • #133
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:55pm Jun 9, 2018 5:55pm
Quoting yalgaar
I was not able to locate on Americanbulls.com where it shows all signals that were generated for each pair and their results so far. Is this something you are able to see only after registering with them?
Yep, unfortunately

I did upload some zip files to this thread that contained that data for one moment in time though. Here is EURUSD from Friday 6/8/18

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Pattern Performance.png Size: 69 KB
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #134
  • Jun 9, 2018 6:06pm Jun 9, 2018 6:06pm
Thanks for posting this. Any idea how do they generate the following signal performance? I mean is it based on taking every single signal that generated for that pair? Do you believe their reporting is reliable? IMO most signal services cook these reports to show positive ROI.
Attached Image
  • #135
  • Jun 9, 2018 6:06pm Jun 9, 2018 6:06pm
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} Yep, unfortunately I did upload some zip files to this thread that contained that data for one moment in time though. Here is EURUSD from Friday 6/8/18 {image}
$420/year. Is it worth it
  • #136
  • Jun 9, 2018 6:20pm Jun 9, 2018 6:20pm
Quoting yalgaar
Thanks for posting this. Any idea how do they generate the following signal performance? I mean is it based on taking every single signal that generated for that pair? Do you believe their reporting is reliable? IMO most signal services cook these reports to show positive ROI. {image}
Considering your risk profile I am sure those are questions that you would have.

A few posts back I gave my thoughts on how they generated performance particularly the % profit.

Yes, it is based on taking every signal and closing the trade by stop loss or opposite confirmed candlestick pattern.

I guess I'm more trusting in that regard. I don't see any reason why they would need to cook the books. I don't consider them a signal service, more of a candlestick pattern detector. How you trade with the info is up to you. And yea what Emerald2112 said, if you really want to get into the weeds get a short subscription and analyze your heart out.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #137
  • Jun 9, 2018 6:35pm Jun 9, 2018 6:35pm
I noticed they have $50 for 1 month option. I might try them out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 6 KB
  • #138
  • Jun 9, 2018 11:02pm Jun 9, 2018 11:02pm
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} {image} Sure, bear in mind that you do not place the stop-loss on the chart. This sentence explains the mechanics about when to close the trade if it goes beyond the stop-loss. Also, keep in mind that you are only making decisions once a day for 15 minutes a day. So let us examine the sentence in detail. The stop loss level is defined as the last low. -The lowest point reached in the formation of the bullish hammer. Following the BUY, - You have a valid buy trade working. if prices go down instead of going up, and close or make two consecutive...
Wow! Thank u for your effort explaining! It is clear now when u said no actual stop loss order being placed.

I understand u trade solely on candlestick patterns so can I say that u don't have an insight of why a trade went against u? Could it be due to some high impact ecomics news release? I would suggest that u pull up the e.calendar during ur 5pm et analysis and close up those positions which have high impact news releasing on that day and also avoid placing trades for those affected pairs
  • #139
  • Jun 10, 2018 7:23pm Jun 10, 2018 7:23pm
New orders from Sunday Evening.

So the account doubled from its lowest point on Friday so the girlfriend rule was initiated. I closed all positions.

That being done, I looked to see what new candlestick patterns were confirmed. I took two trades. A sell-on GBPJPY and a sell on EURJPY.

GBPJPY formed a BEARISH DARK CLOUD COVER pattern which finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed below the confirmation level which was at 147.2000
Stop Loss: 148.1200
Sell Level: 147.2000
Entry Point: 146.786

EURJPY formed a BEARISH HARAMI pattern which received a confirmation because the prices crossed below the confirmation level which was at 129.1650
Stop Loss: 130.2700
Sell Level:129.1650

Using the new rules for version 2,
I opened 0.5 lot with take-profit at 1 ATR(14)
Also opened 0.25 with take-profit at 2 ATR(14)
and another 0.25 with no take profit.
All orders have 100 pip trailing stop losses attached, or so I hope I did not see any change in my MetaTrader when I right click enabled my trailing stops.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sunday6-10-18.png Size: 248 KB
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #140
  • Jun 10, 2018 8:33pm Jun 10, 2018 8:33pm
Quoting JayDavis
New orders from Sunday Evening. So the account doubled from its lowest point on Friday so the girlfriend rule was initiated. I closed all positions. That being done, I looked to see what new candlestick patterns were confirmed. I took two trades. A sell-on GBPJPY and a sell on EURJPY. GBPJPY formed a BEARISH DARK CLOUD COVER pattern which finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed below the confirmation level which was at 147.2000 Stop Loss: 148.1200 Sell Level: 147.2000 Entry Point: 146.786 EURJPY formed a BEARISH HARAMI pattern...

Nice rebound there bro
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