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Jay's Candle Sticker System

  • #101
  • Jun 9, 2018 4:36am Jun 9, 2018 4:36am
Quoting Emerald2112
{quote} Confirmed looks to be the confirmed patterns as a % of the total patterns so 2/3*100=66% Then there's profitable patterns as a % of the confirmed. How does it get the profit/loss % in the table though? Hi Reteid2222. Your the best coder here I think
They need to expand the percentages 0, 1, 2, 3 are not very informative, I think it is the actual percentage of profit you would have made on your account if you had taken the trade. Using the following assumptions, you were trading 1 lot order size and had an account that was worth 10,000.

Or it could be the hold over from some stock thing that I have yet to figure out. In any event the higher the percentage here the better I think.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #102
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:13am Jun 9, 2018 5:13am
Quoting hibra68
{quote} Try opening confirmed trades on sunday and monday and close them tuesday night. The market tends to reverse after tuesday.
If this is true then that is genius! How did you figure this out, merely by emperical observation? You could use that information as an edge and build a complete system around it.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #103
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:17am Jun 9, 2018 5:17am
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} If this is true then that is genius! How did you figure this out, merely by emperical observation? You could use that information as an edge and build a complete system around it.
Lol, i got it from contrarian thread. Beats watching your earnings dissapear in 1 day, doesnt it?
  • #104
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:23am Jun 9, 2018 5:23am
Ive added an ADR and it give 92 (14 setting) here. Didn't make it to +92 either but close to it. Also seems that we opened very high above the signal/buy level at 1.53779. Maybe only take a trade when it closes at a certain level above the buy line?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD daily3.png Size: 21 KB
  • #105
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:29am Jun 9, 2018 5:29am
Quoting Emerald2112
Ive added an ADR and it give 92 (14 setting) here. Didn't make it to +92 either but close to it. Also seems that we opened very high above the signal/buy level at 1.53779. Maybe only take a trade when it closes at a certain level above the buy line? {image}
Interesting thoughts, I would guess that it will hit the +92 sometime next week. Once we get a confirmed pattern maybe waiting for a minor retace is the thing, I think a buy limit order at the buy line or close to it could obtain better entries. On a second look this would not have worked with the current trade.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #106
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:37am Jun 9, 2018 5:37am
Quoting hibra68
{quote} Lol, i got it from contrarian thread. Beats watching your earnings dissapear in 1 day, doesnt it?
Hell, watching paint dry or grass growing is more fun.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #107
  • Jun 9, 2018 5:51am Jun 9, 2018 5:51am
Quoting hibra68
{quote} Try opening confirmed trades on sunday and monday and close them tuesday night. The market tends to reverse after tuesday.
Which tuesday night..???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDDaily.png Size: 42 KB


  • #108
  • Jun 9, 2018 6:05am Jun 9, 2018 6:05am
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} Interesting thoughts, I would guess that it will hit the +92 sometime next week. Once we get a confirmed pattern maybe waiting for a minor retace is the thing, I think a buy limit order at the buy line or close to it could obtain better entries. On a second look this would not have worked with the current trade.
Yeah...I was going to say or wait for a retrace but it hasn't done that here. Maybe it will retrace yet though
  • #109
  • Jun 9, 2018 6:13am Jun 9, 2018 6:13am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} Which tuesday night..??? {image}
So hard to find an edge these days...
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #110
  • Jun 9, 2018 6:50am Jun 9, 2018 6:50am
Quoting reteid2222
{quote} A good start...could you do this for all symbols and save the html files and pack all in ONE zip file? Then I could import in Xl and analyse them all... And what means confirmed? Only 66% confirmed but 100% successfull?
Here is your data, it's like a snapshot in time. I had to break it into multiple files to stay under the 10MB upload limitation here on FF. Good luck coding.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip CandleSticker data 1 of 4.zip   5.6 MB | 487 downloads
File Type: zip CandleSticker data 2 of 4.zip   5.9 MB | 426 downloads
File Type: zip CandleSticker data 3 of 4.zip   6.3 MB | 478 downloads
File Type: zip CandleSticker data 4 of 4.zip   6.0 MB | 402 downloads
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #111
  • Jun 9, 2018 8:46am Jun 9, 2018 8:46am
Hi JayDavis thank you so much for sharing. Just had a look at candlesticker.com some of the things they said are difficult to comprehend. What the heck are they trying to say in the last para???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2018-06-09 21.40.46.jpg Size: 192 KB
  • #112
  • Jun 9, 2018 9:00am Jun 9, 2018 9:00am
Hi Jay,
Pretty wild swings with this method. Maybe you should stick to the pairs that work well like EUR/CAD which you caught some nice swings.
I wonder if adding a 100 pip trailing stop might help. That way when the second position gets opened the first will go to B/E.
Just a thought.
Don
Enter Signature
  • #113
  • Jun 9, 2018 9:18am Jun 9, 2018 9:18am
Quoting Don M
Hi Jay, Pretty wild swings with this method. Maybe you should stick to the pairs that work well like EUR/CAD which you caught some nice swings. I wonder if adding a 100 pip trailing stop might help. That way when the second position gets opened the first will go to B/E. Just a thought. Don
100 pip trailing stoploss, I like it. After Friday I am loving the idea of locking in profits.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #114
  • Edited 9:06pm Jun 9, 2018 9:41am | Edited 9:06pm
Jay’s Candle Sticker System Version 2

You never really know what you got until you try to explain it to someone else. Having my account drop from pinging 20K last month to 2,600 last Friday has brought about some disquieting reflection. Something about my strategy need to change. I need to figure out a way to lock in some of these massive profits that I glanced at for a fleeting moment.

New improvements:

Reduce the overall lots at risk. Using a total of one lot size for the total position.

Close half of the order at 1 ATR(14) profit or 100 pips.
Close a quarter at 2 ATR(14) or 200 pips.
Leave open the last quarter to be closed by an opposite confirmation candle or a stop-loss, to catch those long streaks.

Add a 100 pip trailing stop-loss to each order to address major reversals.

Trade selection will be improved by being more selective and only taking trades using confirmed candle patterns that have shown a net gain of at least 1 percent when traded in the past. I don’t need to take every trade that is put in front of me, just the ones with the highest chance of being a winner.

Girlfriend rule, if you account doubles in a day close all positions.

Procedure:
When signaled with a confirmed candlestick pattern.
Create a 0.5 lot-sized order at the market price with 100 pip trailing stop-loss and take-profit at 1 ATR(14) or 100 pips.
Create a 0.25 lot-sized order at market price with 100 pip trailing stop-loss and take-profit at 2 ATR(14) or 200 pips.
Create a 0.25 lot-sized order at market price with 100 pip trailing stop-loss and no take profit, wait for reversal candlestick pattern or stop-loss.

--- Still under development so improvements and suggestions are most welcome.
Also to alleviate spread risk the time to enter trades moves to 6:30 - 7:00 pm Eastern, spreads should have returned to normal by that time.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #115
  • Edited 10:15am Jun 9, 2018 10:04am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting fxrapido
Hi JayDavis thank you so much for sharing. Just had a look at candlesticker.com some of the things they said are difficult to comprehend. What the heck are they trying to say in the last para??? {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2018-06-09 21.40.46.jpg Size: 192 KB


Sure, bear in mind that you do not place the stop-loss on the chart. This sentence explains the mechanics about when to close the trade if it goes beyond the stop-loss. Also, keep in mind that you are only making decisions once a day for 15 minutes a day. So let us examine the sentence in detail.

The stop loss level is defined as the last low.
-The lowest point reached in the formation of the bullish hammer.

Following the BUY,
- You have a valid buy trade working.

if prices go down instead of going up, and close or make two consecutive daily lows below the stop loss level, while no bearish pattern is detected, then the stop loss is triggered.
- Basically, your trade is not going well and if it closes below the stop-loss level or dips under it twice, which would take multiple days (bear in mind that it (the stop-loss) is NOT on the chart so it will not auto trigger) you close the trade during your daily 15-minute analysis. If there was a bearish pattern your trigger to close the order could happen before the stop-loss due to a valid opposite confirmed candlestick pattern.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #116
  • Jun 9, 2018 11:44am Jun 9, 2018 11:44am
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} After the way it crashed and burned on Friday, I would agree. I am thinking just take the initial order and set a take profit for double the distance of the stop loss and get out with your profits, also there is no need to take every signal just take the formations that worked in the past. That would make it similar to a 2R system.
you do not have to get out, you can trail your stop loss to the low or high of the last candle, everyday, the reason is so when you have a runner, those types where you have 10 up or down days straight, u do be in . the market will take you out by it self...take the first entry, trail the stop, market takes you out by itself...
  • #117
  • Jun 9, 2018 12:38pm Jun 9, 2018 12:38pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} you do not have to get out, you can trail your stop loss to the low or high of the last candle, everyday, the reason is so when you have a runner, those types where you have 10 up or down days straight, u do be in . the market will take you out by it self...take the first entry, trail the stop, market takes you out by itself...
How about you trail stop loss the following way:

This is for a buy signal;

Intial stop loss 2 x daily ATR.

Every time there is a bullish candle with a higher open than the last bullish candle, you move your sl , calculate 2 x ATR from the open of the new bullish candle down.

When you reach 4 x ATR in profit reduce your sl to 1 x ATR and keep trailing with 1 x ATR.
  • #118
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:34pm Jun 9, 2018 1:34pm
Quoting JayDavis
{quote} {image} Sure, bear in mind that you do not place the stop-loss on the chart. This sentence explains the mechanics about when to close the trade if it goes beyond the stop-loss. Also, keep in mind that you are only making decisions once a day for 15 minutes a day. So let us examine the sentence in detail. The stop loss level is defined as the last low. -The lowest point reached in the formation of the bullish hammer. Following the BUY, - You have a valid buy trade working. if prices go down instead of going up, and close or make two consecutive...

Jay this looks a lot like a pinbar system that others have tried over the years. You can look at this thread so you don't reinvent the wheel..

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=276861

Wish you luck with this but...
  • #119
  • Jun 9, 2018 3:14pm Jun 9, 2018 3:14pm
Quoting ranger_lp
{quote} Jay this looks a lot like a pinbar system that others have tried over the years. You can look at this thread so you don't reinvent the wheel.. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=276861 Wish you luck with this but...
Maybe I got the wrong gist but this Bullish hammer is only one of 84 different patterns that are detected, we are talking many many different candlestick patterns.
Buy, Sell, plus this other thing equals Profit!
  • #120
  • Jun 9, 2018 3:28pm Jun 9, 2018 3:28pm
Quoting JayDavis
Jay’s Candle Sticker System Version 2 You never really know what you got until you try to explain it to someone else. Having my account drop from pinging 20K last month to 2,600 last Friday has brought about some disquieting reflection. Something about my strategy need to change. I need to figure out a way to lock in some of these massive profits that I glanced at for a fleeting moment. New improvements: Reduce the overall lots at risk. Using a total of one lot size for the total position. Close half of the order at 1 ATR(14) profit or 100 pips....
Hey Jay

Came across your thread and I find this quite interesting so far. Thanks for posting this. I quickly read most of the posts on this thread. I have also subscribed.

I have to say your girlfriend is very smart! I would like to add this which I am pretty sure it will be very helpful to you and many others. About the statement "If the account doubles in a day close all positions" This sounds very good in theory but with a lot of experience of trying many many things myself, for me this statement only bothers me. So IMHO if you think or believe or witnessed your account doubling in a day, to me you should see this as a danger. This only means your account can also wipe out in a day. Unless you can logically explain why to yourself why that is not a possibility? So I would like to suggest the most important thing you want to consider here is your Lotsize. You want to go a lot lot smaller if you believe there is a possibility of doubling the account.
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