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SAFE - KISS

  • #1,061
  • Jun 8, 2018 9:46am Jun 8, 2018 9:46am
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} Most pairs doing a retrace dance. You can play it on the h1 & h4 or just sit it out & ride the waves. Never panic. This is what the market is all about. Without waves there would be no market {image}
Ralffe, can you explain why you have drawn such lines?
Especially, I'm interested in downtrend one. I don't see any wave hinged line can be drawn to.
Don't you think that EU is forming 5th wave in downtrend?
  • #1,062
  • Jun 8, 2018 10:19pm Jun 8, 2018 10:19pm
Quoting antisystem
{quote} Ralffe, can you explain why you have drawn such lines? Especially, I'm interested in downtrend one. I don't see any wave hinged line can be drawn to. Don't you think that EU is forming 5th wave in downtrend?
The line had been moved. As often happens with a breakout, price has come back to the line again.
This appears to be wave 4 of 3. If so it could go as high as 1.22. could be more downside first though.?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 28 KB
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,063
  • Jun 8, 2018 10:41pm Jun 8, 2018 10:41pm
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} Fake-out or break-out.???? This where patience comes to the fore {image}
Can you please explain more here, how we can avoid fakeouts by using patience ?

Thank You.


Best regards
  • #1,064
  • Jun 8, 2018 11:04pm Jun 8, 2018 11:04pm
Quoting jgadefelth
{quote} Can you please explain more here, how we can avoid fakeouts by using patience ? Thank You. Best regards
Simply by waiting for another candle to confirm the supposed break-out. In this case the break-out appeared genuine on the 15m but a look at the h1 & h4 showed it was likely a fake-out. It was a fake-out price then dropped 90 pips.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,065
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:48am Jun 9, 2018 1:48am
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} The line had been moved. As often happens with a breakout, price has come back to the line again. This appears to be wave 4 of 3. If so it could go as high as 1.22. could be more downside first though.? {image}
Hmm.. I don't understand
Here is my vision. I drew line (green one) to major wave. You told to use only major waves. No breakout yet.
The only thing I can guess why you drew lines to those bars is that price moved lower then previous bar's low & didn't break previous high. But is it a sign to move hinged line?
And if this is a 4th wave then why should it go higher? Instead, we shouldn't expect price to go higher then previous wave's low...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 23 KB
  • #1,066
  • Jun 10, 2018 12:43am Jun 10, 2018 12:43am
Quoting antisystem
{quote} Hmm.. I don't understand Here is my vision. I drew line (green one) to major wave. You told to use only major waves. No breakout yet. The only thing I can guess why you drew lines to those bars is that price moved lower then previous bar's low & didn't break previous high. But is it a sign to move hinged line? And if this is a 4th wave then why should it go higher? Instead, we shouldn't expect price to go higher then previous wave's low... {image}
I understand your confusion regarding minor & major waves. However in this case we are on the Daily chart. Sometimes you need to look at 2 or 3 time frames to get the real picture. The h4 shows the wave clearly while it takes experience to see the same wave on the Daily. Wave 1 is often subtle & easily missed.
2 scenarios for this week.
1. return to 1.16 before heading up
2. A quick trip to 1.22
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 27 KB
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,067
  • Jun 10, 2018 2:31am Jun 10, 2018 2:31am
... First let me congratulate you for this awesome, simple but powerful system, and then price you for doing it for free, you should be in the halls of records of FF as one of the many that with their efforts make this place unique, carry on, and good luck with your group, I have no doubt they will be great as you if they follow the rules and be patient and focus....bless you Rallfe....
The Chonchy
  • #1,068
  • Jun 10, 2018 4:43pm Jun 10, 2018 4:43pm
Very interesting, I'll be checking it out

I notice that you keep referring to the videos by page; you may not be aware that in the User Settings there is an option for number of posts per page

Therefore causing the number of pages to change, hence page 24 will no be the same for all users

However, the number of posts never changes, so the best option is to use a Post # for reference

Thus, videos are located at Posts 15, 470 and 471

Hope that helps
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,069
  • Jun 10, 2018 6:39pm Jun 10, 2018 6:39pm
Thanks mate
Hadn't noticed that.

Cheers
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,070
  • Jun 10, 2018 6:46pm Jun 10, 2018 6:46pm
While at first this seems a unique and innovative way to analyze price action, I don't think it is anything that can't be replicated quite easy with indicators, thereby eliminating all the discretionary, subjective drawing of trend lines as well as saving a lot of work!

For instance, looking at the data of the first video and I think it's used in the rest also, SuperTrend will give basically identical entries.

Don't forget the stop loss are 200 pips or more, and if a target take profit of 2 to 1 is not taken, then is will be reduced to only 1 to 1 with the exits shown

A few whipsaw stop loss hits on entry will eat that up quickly.

He keeps saying the entry was on this bar and points high on the bar as if it was a breakout entry, but the rules are the first bar without crossing the line

You don't know that until the bar closes with price much lower; and 2.5 weeks later price is back at break even!

Here is the chart as I see it

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-16_16-50-42.png Size: 44 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,071
  • Jun 10, 2018 6:50pm Jun 10, 2018 6:50pm
Another way to gauge the price action if you are comfortable with large stops is to study Dinapoli method, Google that

One thing he uses is Displaced Moving Averages, the 25 EMA x 5 Shift to stay in a trade

This give pretty much the same trades on the AUDUSD data set

Also, clearly shows the bar that didn't cross as explained in the rules

Here is the chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-06-11_9-25-55.png Size: 60 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,072
  • Jun 10, 2018 7:03pm Jun 10, 2018 7:03pm
So here is a free signal for you, not sure where to anchor the trend line when there is no nearby swing before the lowest point?

Have a good week all, watch that USD, it is make or break time!



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2018-06-11_10-01-27.png Size: 45 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,073
  • Jun 10, 2018 7:25pm Jun 10, 2018 7:25pm
Quoting Erebus
While at first this seems a unique and innovative way to analyze price action, I don't think it is anything that can't be replicated quite easy with indicators, thereby eliminating all the discretionary, subjective drawing of trend lines as well as saving a lot of work! For instance, looking at the data of the first video and I think it's used in the rest also, SuperTrend will give basically identical entries. Don't forget the stop loss are 200 pips or more, and if a target take profit of 2 to 1 is not taken, then is will be reduced to only 1 to...
Thanks but I have tried all those indicators in the past & none of them give you the safety of the hinged lines. No indicator can detect & combat a fake-out resulting in losses or unnecessary DDs.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,074
  • Jun 10, 2018 8:21pm Jun 10, 2018 8:21pm
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} Thanks but I have tried all those indicators in the past & none of them give you the safety of the hinged lines. No indicator can detect & combat a fake-out resulting in losses or unnecessary DDs.
I'm not so sure if the "safety" is in the magic line or the stop loss being very far away, 20 pips from the recent high or low, correct?

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #1,075
  • Jun 10, 2018 8:49pm Jun 10, 2018 8:49pm
Quoting Ralffe
{quote} Thanks but I have tried all those indicators in the past & none of them give you the safety of the hinged lines. No indicator can detect & combat a fake-out resulting in losses or unnecessary DDs.
I have found by using the lines correctly there is no need for a SL other than fact a no SL trade can be suicidal. The SL is only there for the totally unexpected.
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,076
  • Jun 11, 2018 2:50am Jun 11, 2018 2:50am
Im not as experianced as you Ralffe, but strogly agree with your last two posts
Thank You James16, Fijitrader, Mbqb1, ghous, Pinbar and Jarroo. cpfleger
  • #1,077
  • Jun 11, 2018 4:45am Jun 11, 2018 4:45am
FOMC bullshit this week guys n gals so trade carefully. Could get ugly what with Rocket man & Trump etc etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 24 KB
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,078
  • Jun 11, 2018 8:33am Jun 11, 2018 8:33am
Quoting Ralffe
FOMC bullshit this week guys n gals so trade carefully. Could get ugly what with Rocket man & Trump etc etc. {image}

where are you why you not replying to me please ?
  • #1,079
  • Jun 11, 2018 7:15pm Jun 11, 2018 7:15pm
Quoting samekhanok
{quote} where are you why you not replying to me please ?
Emails sent
Conventional trading is for losers
  • #1,080
  • Jun 11, 2018 7:18pm Jun 11, 2018 7:18pm
EU & GU moving down for retrace. Good opportunities to make money today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4.png Size: 24 KB
Conventional trading is for losers
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