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If you haven't made it yet, what makes you think you will?

  • #181
  • Edited 5:59am Jun 5, 2018 5:47am | Edited 5:59am
Yup, as the last few posts demonstrate, trading is a tough business on so many levels. Even when we have pretty much pieced the mechanics of price movement together, we still possess all the human frailties that ensure that most people fail in this business. Nobody understands or cares much about the secretive world we immerse ourselves into, least of all when we plod on, year after year without anything to show for it, and it can be exhausting and debilitating for all concerned, but especially for the person sitting infront of the screens day after day trying to put it all together. Surely there is no more thankless task in the world, and to make it even more difficult than it already is, we get punished instantly and mercilessly for any mistakes we make.

GDR3K made a short but absolutely critical comment above about what is needed to trade profitably, and yes, he so so tight - ordinary human beings make absolutely terrible traders, even when we can read charts upside down and inside out, because unless we can shut out or learn to override those damaging psychological impulses we all have, it will all be for nothing. To act on a trading signal, without hesitation, doubt or fear, ( as well as having the patience not to trade when we are not sure ) is the hardest yet most important skill to master in this business, to become something other than human, yes if you like, to become a robot. Very few can do this, and all of us who have managed to learn to think and act as we know we have to, know very well how hard this has been to achieve.

Each and every one of us, with the right commitment, has the ability to become a consistently profitable trader , of that there is no doubt, but only those of us who learn to truly manage ourselves will ever succeed.
  • #182
  • Jun 5, 2018 8:43am Jun 5, 2018 8:43am
Quoting cat
Each and every one of us, with the right commitment, has the ability to become a consistently profitable trader , of that there is no doubt, but only those of us who learn to truly manage ourselves will ever succeed.
What you say resonates with me as it often does on psychology.
I believe there is a great correlation between success in trading and mental sanity, and I am afraid that a lot of unsuccessful traders have undiagnosed psychological issues/barriers that are magnified by the trading activity. Hardly anyone sees it as a daily job, which it is if you do it properly, and this requires a business model, a business plan, capital allocation, holidays, and time away from the job to live the life you are working for.
  • #183
  • Jun 5, 2018 9:20am Jun 5, 2018 9:20am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} What you say resonates with me as it often does on psychology. I believe there is a great correlation between success in trading and mental sanity, and I am afraid that a lot of unsuccessful traders have undiagnosed psychological issues/barriers that are magnified by the trading activity. Hardly anyone sees it as a daily job, which it is if you do it properly, and this requires a business model, a business plan, capital allocation, holidays, and time away from the job to live the life you are working for.
Holidays? Sorry, can you just remind me what they are!

Seriously though, yes, I agree, all very important. I don't think there is anything psychologically wrong with unsuccessful traders, if anything, it's the other way around...the more normal you are, the less likely you are to become a successful trader.

The perfect trader is the ultra disciplined psychopath!
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  • #184
  • Jun 5, 2018 9:45am Jun 5, 2018 9:45am
Quoting cat
{quote} Holidays? Sorry, can you just remind me what they are! Seriously though, yes, I agree, all very important. I don't think there is anything psychologically wrong with unsuccessful traders, if anything, it's the other way around...the more normal you are, the less likely you are to become a successful trader. The perfect trader is the ultra disciplined psychopath! {image}
I understand what you mean in the robotic sense and the ability to trade without emotions, but it is the way nature conceived us at the beginning, i.e. act/react on reality rather than obey hopes/fears, so I cannot agree with you on the necessity of being a psychopath to succeed because it would mean I am doomed (or am I? )
  • #185
  • Jun 5, 2018 9:53am Jun 5, 2018 9:53am
Becoming wealthy is hard irrespective of the endeavor. You just have to keep at it, sooner or later you will understand a price dynamic and make it big. I think it's hard to figure stuff out, it' like a puzzle. It will only make sense once you have all the pieces at the right place and then you can make money very very quickly.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #186
  • Jun 5, 2018 10:43am Jun 5, 2018 10:43am
Quoting Rennaissance
Becoming wealthy is hard irrespective of the endeavor. You just have to keep at it, sooner or later you will understand a price dynamic and make it big. I think it's hard to figure stuff out, it' like a puzzle. It will only make sense once you have all the pieces at the right place and then you can make money very very quickly.


Perhaps you can tell us all something about that, as I'm sure there are a few people who'd like to know?
  • #187
  • Edited 11:20am Jun 5, 2018 10:57am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting Rennaissance
Becoming wealthy is hard irrespective of the endeavor. You just have to keep at it, sooner or later you will understand a price dynamic and make it big. I think it's hard to figure stuff out, it' like a puzzle. It will only make sense once you have all the pieces at the right place and then you can make money very very quickly.
Personally, I understand what you just said... all because of experience. Your signature makes a lot of sense to me as well.

I looked at the charts every single day for months and months... then years passed. Nothing made sense to me, but I kept at it. Then, one day I scanned all the charts again and... price action just looked so clear to me. I thought, "this is it" and entered the trade, this is when I learned of the phrase, "self-fulfilling prophecy". After that one given experience, everything started to line up and I knew EXACTLY what to look for now. Trust what you see, then act on it.
It was also at that very moment I truly understood the meaning of 'patience', literally it hit me like a slap in the face.

"When you see it, bet big" you're damn right. But how can you elaborate this any further if you haven't trained your eyes to "see it"? Do you know what I'm trying to say?
  • #188
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:27am Jun 5, 2018 11:27am
Quoting Chart1st
{quote} Trust what you see, then act on it. It was also at that very moment I truly understood the meaning of 'patience', literally it hit me like a slap in the face. "When you see it, bet big" you're damn right. But how can you elaborate this any further if you haven't trained your eyes to "see it"? Do you know what I'm trying to say?
Last post from me today, and a big thanks to everyone for some great posts today.

All true above, but it's the " When you see it, bet big " aphorism that worries me, having seen quite a few traders blow themselves to pieces by risking too much. My own approach to trading, which isn't necessarily the right one, but the one that works for me, is to keep strictly within my risk tolerance. That way I am able to keep my losses small and my gains moderate, taking bites out of the market without putting myself at too much risk, which is why I asked whether Rennaissance would like to elaborate on his comment about making money " very very quickly ".
  • #189
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:33am Jun 5, 2018 11:33am
Quoting cat
{quote}[/b] Perhaps you can tell us all something about that, as I'm sure there are a few people who'd like to know?
What I meant is that there are different chart patterns that offer incredible risk reward situations. They work about 50-60% of the time with a risk to reward of 2x,3x,4x,5x.... You need to find those patterns, what I can guarantee you is that they are all very hidden. Then the only thing left is to wait and have the patience to let those situation form.

With such odds 50% risk to reward 1:3 , how can't you make alot of money quickly? Cheers
When you see it, BET big.
  • #190
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:37am Jun 5, 2018 11:37am
Quoting Chart1st
{quote} Personally, I understand what you just said... all because of experience. Your signature makes a lot of sense to me as well. I looked at the charts every single day for months and months... then years passed. Nothing made sense to me, but I kept at it. Then, one day I scanned all the charts again and... price action just looked so clear to me. I thought, "this is it" and entered the trade, this is when I learned of the phrase, "self-fulfilling prophecy". After that one given experience, everything started to line up and I knew EXACTLY what...
Yeah I get you, most traders Don't know what to wait for. You can't really be patient until you know what you are waiting for, and then because they are high probability situations you need to maximize the opportunity by trading them big. Instead of placing small bets here and there, just put all those chips on these situations.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #191
  • Jun 5, 2018 11:52am Jun 5, 2018 11:52am
Quoting cat
{quote} Last post from me today, and a big thanks to everyone for some great posts today. All true above, but it's the " When you see it, bet big " aphorism that worries me, having seen quite a few traders blow themselves to pieces by risking too much. My own approach to trading, which isn't necessarily the right one, but the one that works for me, is to keep strictly within my risk tolerance. That way I am able to keep my losses small and my gains moderate, taking bites out of the market without putting myself at too much risk, which is why I asked...
I understand your low risk approach to building wealth but I think you are not maximizing your edge. I don't think anyone grows rich making small bets. I don't advocate for betting stupidly, but you can be more aggressive when you have a big edge. I personally bet 5-10 % per trade, but I don't bet often, I wait for the big opportunities and I swing them hard.

So it seems ridiculous but it's not, a typical trader who does 10trades a week risking 1% per trade, has 10% at risk for that week. My idea is to bet on 1 of those 10 opportunities, the one with the highest probability and bet those 10% on it. I believe that' how you build wealth aggressively, by making few concentrated bets.

This is an idea of my record for the last 2 months

Trades
1. 37%
2. 10%
3. 18%
4. 32.5%
5. 22.5%
6. -7.5%
7. Open long EUR USD from about 12 pm today.

That is not how it usually is, I am just on a hot hand. Cheers.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #192
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:05pm Jun 5, 2018 12:05pm
I really kick myself for that first trade. I took profits way to early, it was a 100% trade and I scared myself out of it. I have been living with that pain for 7 weeks now.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #193
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:11pm Jun 5, 2018 12:11pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I understand your low risk approach to building wealth but I think you are not maximizing your edge. I don't think anyone grows rich making small bets. I don't advocate for betting stupidly, but you can be more aggressive when you have a big edge. I personally bet 5-10 % per trade, but I don't bet often, I wait for the big opportunities and I swing them hard. So it seems ridiculous but it's not, a typical trader who does 10trades a week risking 1% per trade, has 10% at risk for that week. My idea is to bet on 1 of those 10 opportunities,...
I completely agree with you. You don’t make huge gains from betting small and always playing it safe... you should definitely bet small on trades that you aren’t that confident in, but when there’s a clear opportunity, you should maximize on it.

If you always play it passively and bet small... your account will never, ever grow. It’ll take you years to make even 50% of your account. There are moments where you would need to be aggressive.

I personally don’t even trade the lower probability trades... to me, there’s no point. The risk isn’t worth it, the stress isn’t worth it, nothing about lower probability trades is worth it to me... I only wait for the clearest trades, and then I pounce.
  • #194
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:21pm Jun 5, 2018 12:21pm
Quoting Chart1st
{quote} I completely agree with you. You don’t make huge gains from betting small and always playing it safe... you should definitely bet small on trades that you aren’t that confident in, but when there’s a clear opportunity, you should maximize on it. If you always play it passively and bet small... your account will never, ever grow. It’ll take you years to make even 50% of your account. There are moments where you would need to be aggressive.
Completely agree, you said it all. It's ok to bet small on low probability situations, but it's sinful to bet small on a high probability situation. Thanks for your remarks.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #195
  • Jun 5, 2018 12:29pm Jun 5, 2018 12:29pm
Quoting Chart1st
{quote} I personally don’t even trade the lower probability trades... to me, there’s no point. The risk isn’t worth it, the stress isn’t worth it, nothing about lower probability trades is worth it to me... I only wait for the clearest trades, and then I pounce.
I smiled when I read this, totally true. It's pointless, why do more work to make less money? But thats what exist even in the fund managers space. They have 100 positions in their portfolio and wonder why they can't beat the market. They are soo spread their portfolio is the market plus active management fees. If you see the great investors, they have one or two stocks at a time. There was a time I remember buffet owned only one stock at a time. He started buying more companies cause his money grew too big to be invested in only one stock.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #196
  • Jun 5, 2018 1:01pm Jun 5, 2018 1:01pm
Quoting Rennaissance
That is not how it usually is, I am just on a hot hand. Cheers.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-hand-fallacy/
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #197
  • Jun 5, 2018 1:03pm Jun 5, 2018 1:03pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-hand-fallacy/
How should I call I winning streak?
When you see it, BET big.
  • #198
  • Edited 2:57pm Jun 5, 2018 1:26pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} I smiled when I read this, totally true. It's pointless, why do more work to make less money? But thats what exist even in the fund managers space. They have 100 positions in their portfolio and wonder why they can't beat the market. They are soo spread their portfolio is the market plus active management fees. If you see the great investors, they have one or two stocks at a time. There was a time I remember buffet owned only one stock at a time. He started buying more companies cause his money grew too big to be invested in only one stock....
It’s crazy. These type of traders shoot their shot at every single “opportunity” they see. Sure, you can make a good bit of money on a few of those selections, but then also remember you have to account the losses taken on the lower probability ones too.

... So why not just bank your shots only on the high probability selections? Why not just wait? Why even go for those low probability ones? When you’re more patient and highly selective, the losses are even less. Correct?

Sometimes I don't even consider myself as a "trader"... 95% of my days I am just watching and studying the markets. 5% of the time is when I'm actually executing and managing my trades. This is simplicity at its finest.
  • #199
  • Jun 5, 2018 3:18pm Jun 5, 2018 3:18pm
Quoting Chart1st
{quote} It’s crazy. These type of traders shoot their shot at every single “opportunity” they see. Sure, you can make a good bit of money on a few of those selections, but then also remember you have to account the losses taken on the lower probability ones too. ... So why not just bank your shots only on the high probability selections? Why not just wait? Why even go for those low probability ones? When you’re more patient and highly selective, the losses are even less. Correct? Sometimes I don't even consider myself as a "trader"... 95% of my...
Yeah true when you are highly selective not only is your losses few, they are also far between. Allowing the compounding to work, adding to the fact that they are considerably smaller than your profits.
I think the problem is that
1. People Don't know what to wait for.
2. Even those who know can't sit on their hands.
3. Even those who know and who can sit are scared to bet big.
4. Even when a trader has the three of the above, he takes profit too soon. It takes an insane amount of courage to ride a profit when trading big. This I think is the hardest part for me. Taking 20% when you could habe made 40-60%.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #200
  • Jul 20, 2019 4:48pm Jul 20, 2019 4:48pm
[quote=BBalazs;8970671]It is no harder than trying to be an expert in any profession. More than 80% of start-up companies fail in the first two years, the rest is barely getting by and only a handful of them are actually making money. How many people are training extremely hard to become professional NFL or NBA or whatever athletes, and how many of them actually get a contract with a team? It does not matter which profession you choose, to be among the top 5%, you will need to work extremely hard. Trading is difficult IMO, because you have to bear the external pressure from your family and friends, especially if you are not doing good (losing money). To march on in a situation like that with nothing but a vision and rock solid confidence under your belt is pretty hard. After all, all they see is you sitting in front of a computer all day, staring at lines and losing money. Unless you want a 9 to 5 job for the rest of your life (nothing wrong with that), you have to take risks. You are risking your time & energy & money to create a life you don't need vacation from.[

Very encouraging. Many thanks dear.
Trade to trade well
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