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Statistics combined with system. Profitable? What do you think

  • #21
  • Jun 1, 2018 11:53pm Jun 1, 2018 11:53pm
Quoting Fauzaan
{quote} Since u didnt mention about zigzag i assumed HH and LL based on Candles. Ill see what i can do using the Zigzag
Thank you so much!
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  • #22
  • Jun 2, 2018 12:34am Jun 2, 2018 12:34am
I test for EU 01.01.2017 - 25.04.2018 tf H1 / Wicksys (2) default set
Ooop! what i Missed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TesterGraph.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #23
  • Jun 2, 2018 2:47am Jun 2, 2018 2:47am
Lassame. Thanks for your reply. I appreciate your message! What is your suggestion to improve this system? How do you think we could tweak to use statistical information in trading?

Regarding your reply, the main reasons:
0. the parameters are not yet correct.
1. the EA is in progress so we need your ideas
2. you are backtesting in Open Prices mode which means you are disregarding wicks. This system uses wicks to determine direction.
3. you are testing in 90% data feed. Type in google: download MT4 99% tick data feed
4. use the best data feed (not manipulated from a broker):
* https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/comme...rex_data_feed/
* https://www.forextester.com/forex-data-feed
* https://www.liteforex.com/trading/best-data-feed-forex/
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  • #24
  • Jun 4, 2018 12:29am Jun 4, 2018 12:29am
How to make a system scientific based?

Test case:
By demonstrating a 50 -50 ratio just by calculating red and green candles on M1 for the past 20 years and you can see that it will be much more candles in 1 type than on the other, way past a reasonable distribution, so in either way its biased. But to say random, i agree. BTW the gold and silver is upward biased more than 35% than the equilibrium, thats not a coincidence, but the seed of candlesticks is probably a true random sequence.

Question:
- how do we define:
1. a biased market
2. a coincidence in the market
3. a random price direction?

What is your opinion?
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  • #25
  • Jun 4, 2018 12:34am Jun 4, 2018 12:34am
For your information about market predictability and randomness: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...le#post7157404.
What is your own opinion to what extent the market is random?
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  • #26
  • Jun 26, 2018 2:36pm Jun 26, 2018 2:36pm
https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/comme...eurusd_thesis/

What is your opinion about this scientist's EUR/USD thesis?
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  • #27
  • Jun 26, 2018 3:04pm Jun 26, 2018 3:04pm
[quote=michaellobry;11119623]Trading system: wick system 1.00 Type: trend and ranged Timeframe: M1 - D1. In this example we take the H1 chart. Entry: - when: in the H1 chart buy or sell on every candle (this means, every hour you will open an order at exactly close of previous candle). - buy: if lower wick of previous candle is bigger than the upper wick. - sell: if lower wick of previous candle is smaller than the upper wick. - TP/SL: 50 pips Stati

Hi, i trade using statistics and to be precise Frequency Distribution...
i am not here to be negative and you may have something with the wicks?
But the only way to trade is follow the market makers and especially after the uk & us open. volatility is king.
Keeping stats opens your eyes as to what the market movers are up to OR playing.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #28
  • Jun 26, 2018 3:06pm Jun 26, 2018 3:06pm
Quoting michaellobry
https://www.reddit.com/r/Forex/comme...eurusd_thesis/ What is your opinion about this scientist's EUR/USD thesis?
negative opinion, anything can happen between now and then.
For every forecaster who is correct we will have losers.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #29
  • Jun 27, 2018 11:42am Jun 27, 2018 11:42am
Here you will find an mq4 file for candle wicks. Can anyone upload more indicators that are similar or interesting for scientific or wick purposes?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CandleWicksDisplay_mod3.mq4   8 KB | 353 downloads
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  • #30
  • Jun 27, 2018 11:45am Jun 27, 2018 11:45am
Quoting billytt
{quote} negative opinion, anything can happen between now and then. For every forecaster who is correct we will have losers.
Thank you for your reply. I appreciate it a lot.

"i trade using statistics and to be precise Frequency Distribution..."

For the readers out here, could you go more in depth regarding your trading using statistics (FD)?
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  • #31
  • Jun 28, 2018 10:09am Jun 28, 2018 10:09am
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/...ers-statistics
Top 100 Forex Traders Statistics. These statistics are calculated from the forex trading activities over the past 24 hours of two groups of OANDA traders: the top 100 "most profitable" and (optionally) the top 100 "least profitable" traders.

For the readers of this thread, please state your opinion.
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  • #32
  • Jun 28, 2018 10:48am Jun 28, 2018 10:48am
Quoting billytt
Quoting michaellobry
Trading system: wick system 1.00 Type: trend and ranged Timeframe: M1 - D1. In this example we take the H1 chart. Entry: - when: in the H1 chart buy or sell on every candle (this means, every hour you will open an order at exactly close of previous candle). - buy: if lower wick of previous candle is bigger than the upper wick. - sell: if lower wick of previous candle is smaller than the upper wick. - TP/SL: 50 pips Stati Hi, i trade using statistics and to be precise Frequency Distribution... i am not here to be negative
...
"the only way to trade is follow the market makers and especially after the uk & us open. volatility is king. Keeping stats opens your eyes as to what the market movers are up to OR playing"

Fantastic Billy. 100% in agreement with what you said in bold.

Please share a little bit more on "Frequency Distribution". These two are my 2nd and 3rd favorite words too (after "Time").

EDIT - Currently I trade round the clock but my stats tell me trading Asian volatility is not consistent with my understanding of what happens at London and US open. Is that also your experience? especially with AUDXXX and JPY crosses. The Asian MMs use some different techniques or influences making it hard to follow the flow in what I am seeing.
Staying in my lane...
  • #33
  • Edited 1:27pm Jun 28, 2018 1:08pm | Edited 1:27pm
Quoting billytt
Quoting michaellobry
Trading system: wick system 1.00 Type: trend and ranged Timeframe: M1 - D1. In this example we take the H1 chart. Entry: - when: in the H1 chart buy or sell on every candle (this means, every hour you will open an order at exactly close of previous candle). - buy: if lower wick of previous candle is bigger than the upper wick. - sell: if lower wick of previous candle is smaller than the upper wick. - TP/SL: 50 pips Stati Hi, i trade using statistics and to be precise Frequency Distribution... i am not here to be negative
...
@Billy:
I agree with VEEFX. Billy, could you explain in more detail regarding FD?

What is FD:
- Frequency Distribution is well explained here:
Inserted Video
. More links are welcome.
- more and more python traders integrate FD in their system and make use of Taylor's (or Rela's) perspective (https://books.google.nl/books?id=l7WJTcbxcmQC&pg=PA173&lpg=PA173&dq=taylor+vs+rela+"frequency+distribution"&source=bl&ots=1Uu_p45jyR&sig=qVTqwwm_nTdYt2J2RzIXzY093zc&hl=nl&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjm_4SS-fbbAhXPGuwKHSWeAbsQ6AEISjAI#v=onepage&q=taylor%20vs%20rela%20"frequency%20distribution"&f=false)
- Frequency distributions are typically used within a statistical context.
- "The frequency chart is referred to as a point-and-figure chart and was created out of a need for floor traders to take note of price action and to identify trends. The y-axis is the variable measured, and the x-axis is the frequency count. Each change in price action is denoted in X's and O's. Traders interpret it as an uptrend when three X's emerge; in this case, demand has overcome supply. In the reverse situation, when the chart shows three O's, it indicates that supply has overcome demand." (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f...stribution.asp and https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p...igurechart.asp)

How to trade FD:
Regarding how you trade FD, I presume you are using FD tools and indicators:
- like attached below
- order block (tools) (like
Inserted Video
)
- CoT (to replace volume distribution):
Inserted Video

- trading SB waves instead of Barros Swings
- FD trading in other ways:
*1) to find the wick sizes in pips
2) categorise them into the different sizes:
- 0-1 pips
- 1-5 pips
- 5-10 pips
- 10-20 pips
- 20-100 pips
- the tool counts all the wicks of the previous 240 h4 candles (2 months of data). Then the average of the 240 candles. And count the body of the h4 candles and average it out.
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  • #34
  • Jun 28, 2018 1:11pm Jun 28, 2018 1:11pm
Frequency distribution indicator.

It will give the stats on how many candles close green & red 1 , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc times in a row in the last x amount of candles.

Example:
100 (will use much bigger sample size in practice) candles Sample
100% Close Green or Red 1 Day in a row
50% Close Greeen or Red 2 days in a row
20% Close Green or Red 3 Days in a Row.
15% close green or red 4 days in a row.
10% close green or red 5 days in a row.
5% close green or red 6 days in a row.
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MT7_FreqDistIN.ex4   39 KB | 283 downloads
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  • #35
  • Jun 28, 2018 1:25pm Jun 28, 2018 1:25pm
Frequency distribution indicator:

https://www.kreslik.com/forums/theru...n-trade-t12931
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15.png Size: 59 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: rar Templates and indicators for HOLO 160804.rar   33 KB | 355 downloads
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  • #36
  • Jun 28, 2018 1:34pm Jun 28, 2018 1:34pm
PDF files about Frequency Distribution (HOLO and cycles in particular).
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf HighestLowestOpenTrade.pdf   162 KB | 344 downloads
File Type: pdf HoLo.pdf   623 KB | 355 downloads
File Type: pdf market-cycle-times.pdf   108 KB | 361 downloads
File Type: doc HOLO THE RULES.doc   1.7 MB | 353 downloads
File Type: doc TO SLOOW STRATEGY.doc   1.7 MB | 336 downloads
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  • #37
  • Jun 28, 2018 1:39pm Jun 28, 2018 1:39pm
Frequency Distribution indicators
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 TradeBuddy_HOLO_1.ex4   39 KB | 310 downloads
File Type: ex4 TRS.ex4   3 KB | 237 downloads
File Type: mq4 HOLO.mq4   4 KB | 364 downloads
File Type: mq4 fvoe 1.6.3.mq4   18 KB | 323 downloads
File Type: mq4 JF_TradingTimes.mq4   10 KB | 243 downloads
File Type: mq4 HO LO Alert.mq4   10 KB | 316 downloads
File Type: mq4 sqConsecutiveCandlesStatistics.mq4   4 KB | 263 downloads
File Type: mq4 q-Opn_Line.mq4   2 KB | 258 downloads
File Type: mq4 smHiLoOpen Lines_v1.2.mq4   11 KB | 291 downloads
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  • #38
  • Jun 28, 2018 1:39pm Jun 28, 2018 1:39pm
FD indicators.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Highest Open_Lowest Open_SELL_v1.00.mq4   206 KB | 388 downloads
File Type: mq4 Highest Open_Lowest Open_BUY_v1.00.mq4   206 KB | 379 downloads
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  • #39
  • Jun 28, 2018 3:22pm Jun 28, 2018 3:22pm
Quoting michaellobry
Frequency distribution indicator. It will give the stats on how many candles close green & red 1 , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc times in a row in the last x amount of candles. Example: 100 (will use much bigger sample size in practice) candles Sample 100% Close Green or Red 1 Day in a row 50% Close Greeen or Red 2 days in a row 20% Close Green or Red 3 Days in a Row. 15% close green or red 4 days in a row. 10% close green or red 5 days in a row. 5% close green or red 6 days in a row. {image} {file}
Do you have the source code to share for this indicator?
Staying in my lane...
  • #40
  • Jun 28, 2018 5:27pm Jun 28, 2018 5:27pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Do you have the source code to share for this indicator?
No sorry, I got it from this thread. They only uploaded the ex4 file.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=526335
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