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The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

  • #1,282
  • May 31, 2018 7:26am May 31, 2018 7:26am
FF there are a good number of homework questions out there wait to be answered by those of us trying. Can you answer those or does this all stop until you hear back from the FF admins?
  • #1,283
  • May 31, 2018 7:32am May 31, 2018 7:32am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} Your absolutely correct, the market makers have vast amount of money they can throw at the market to move it. However they have rules how to use it, they cant just move a pair 1000 pips well they can but thats not likely as it will ruin the game and economy. They have a average daily range they can move, sometimes these moves can be bigger if theres important news. They hide behind news to or hit the stops or shift away from the traders that are trapped at that location.
JP, you are as well so right... it amazed me to discover the precise range securities move in (I am not into FX), I am fully aware of the movements FF describes and plot in my charts the levels where the stops should be with uncanny precision... BUT ,and that is why I'm so interested in this thread, I haven't figured out for which stops they will go first in a given day... I have to wait until they show their hand
  • #1,284
  • May 31, 2018 7:51am May 31, 2018 7:51am
FF - Thank you for your videos! I've watched a few dozen. I have been trading for five years or so, and found the educational content validated what I had suspected (I should add that I worked on Wall Street for twenty years or so in IT, so knew snippets of it); when you illustrated your method, I found it quite logical (though I make no claim to any deep understanding yet). I wonder if I had partially intuited it, as the path to profitability that I have found is TP of relatively small pips (40-200) with "disastrous" stops. While I am, as I say, profitable (a few thousand $US per month), there's got to be a better way. I am going to add that open order indicator I see in your videos and see if it aids in understanding the market movement. Given the dynamics you describe, am I correct in thinking that you trade M15 because a higher TF would disguise the SM moves?

I think my next concept to master is judging which stops will attract the stop-hunters, and in what order. Do you have any guidelines for that analysis, aside from quantity of stops at a particular level and the oft-seen pattern of going in the opposite direction of a trend first?
  • #1,285
  • May 31, 2018 8:39am May 31, 2018 8:39am
Quoting oradba
FF - Thank you for your videos! I've watched a few dozen. I have been trading for five years or so, and found the educational content validated what I had suspected (I should add that I worked on Wall Street for twenty years or so in IT, so knew snippets of it); when you illustrated your method, I found it quite logical (though I make no claim to any deep understanding yet). I wonder if I had partially intuited it, as the path to profitability that I have found is TP of relatively small pips (40-200) with "disastrous" stops. While I am, as I say,...
Hi Oradba, my checkdown is 1H to look at the overall bias then i move down to the 15m chart to look for possible entry's. For me i basically check for stop hunts against the trend because the moves that come after that are usually bigger, you can take them counter trend but your target should be more closer.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #1,286
  • May 31, 2018 8:48am May 31, 2018 8:48am
"BackToTradingDiscussion # SupportFractalFreak"
  • #1,287
  • May 31, 2018 8:49am May 31, 2018 8:49am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} Hi Oradba, my checkdown is 1H to look at the overall bias then i move down to the 15m chart to look for possible entry's. For me i basically check for stop hunts against the trend because the moves that come after that are usually bigger, you can take them counter trend but your target should be more closer.
Also, the "Spring Board" and " Upthrust" setup that Dave Weis talked about in Trades About to Happen is a type of stop hunting. The setup was originally identified by Richard Wyckoff.
  • #1,288
  • May 31, 2018 8:52am May 31, 2018 8:52am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} Hi Oradba, my checkdown is 1H to look at the overall bias then i move down to the 15m chart to look for possible entry's. For me i basically check for stop hunts against the trend because the moves that come after that are usually bigger, you can take them counter trend but your target should be more closer.
You could be right, GU has just dipped down and taken out some levels against today's trend. I still feel the SM will be more comfortable above 1.3327 (this value has gone up a little from earlier) so we may see a resumption of the previous up trend to take out the stops above. Or it may take out a few more below first. Being able to discover which the SM will go for first is still a mystery to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,289
  • May 31, 2018 9:31am May 31, 2018 9:31am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} You could be right, GU has just dipped down and taken out some levels against today's trend. I still feel the SM will be more comfortable above 1.3327 (this value has gone up a little from earlier) so we may see a resumption of the previous up trend to take out the stops above. Or it may take out a few more below first. Being able to discover which the SM will go for first is still a mystery to me. {image}
What i look for is that nice M pattern you see on GU before it went down. I know this was countertrend but these setups are easy to pick, these patterns will show divergence on my TDI and it perfectly hit my moving average before it turned around, easy 50 pips.

I didnt took this trade but i took UC and CJ as you can see there are perfect clues before the moves happen, nice M/W patterns where the second leg exceed the first leg but show wil show divergence.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #1,290
  • May 31, 2018 9:35am May 31, 2018 9:35am
Quoting pooh123
{quote} Also, the "Spring Board" and " Upthrust" setup that Dave Weis talked about in Trades About to Happen is a type of stop hunting. The setup was originally identified by Richard Wyckoff.
They work tho, today was good evidence.

Look at:GU,GJ,AJ,EA,EJ,CJ,UC,EN. All nice 50 pip targets that where reached within 2 hours.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #1,291
  • May 31, 2018 9:42am May 31, 2018 9:42am
Sometimes you have more than 20 of these setups a week, its not that hard.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #1,292
  • May 31, 2018 10:12am May 31, 2018 10:12am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} We have these setups EVERY day. The so called manipulation happens all the time. What I was trying to get to with my question on crosses is that it happens LESS OFTEN on crosses when the primary market is not open for those crosses... atleast that has been my observation. It was more of a validation exercise. These moves is how I play and make significant amount of Time-weighted gains (fast returns with the least amount of market exposure) EDIT: I will also say this... playing pullbacks on crosses will give a higher winrate. playing majors...
I personally havent looked on it like that but i will since you said it, also about the pullbacks and the majors and JPY pairs i will study this.
You somewhere said you have been open about how you trade, can i find this somewhere on the forum? I would like to compare our tading if you mind.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #1,293
  • May 31, 2018 10:18am May 31, 2018 10:18am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} You could be right, GU has just dipped down and taken out some levels against today's trend. I still feel the SM will be more comfortable above 1.3327 (this value has gone up a little from earlier) so we may see a resumption of the previous up trend to take out the stops above. Or it may take out a few more below first. Being able to discover which the SM will go for first is still a mystery to me. {image}
mh, maybe your aproach is wrong?
(.)(.) think first ...
  • #1,294
  • May 31, 2018 10:22am May 31, 2018 10:22am
VEEFX,

You dont think GU is going to rise?
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #1,295
  • May 31, 2018 10:38am May 31, 2018 10:38am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Look what this mofo did to me... it's not perfect but then trading can never be perfect. There is no such thing as a perfect setup. EVERYTHING we do in trading has a binary outcome with a probability of 48% - 52% {image}
Dont you use stops?
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #1,296
  • May 31, 2018 10:38am May 31, 2018 10:38am
Quoting Hairi
ok let test the theory, at the BEGINNING of the day. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
multiple pair intraday.
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  • #1,297
  • May 31, 2018 10:45am May 31, 2018 10:45am
Quoting hepsibah
Maybe it is something like this? {image}
To me that looks like a high/low candle (perhaps MTF) indicator? Anyway, what i noticed my own in years of trading is that price always tend to go for the extreme.. So regardless of the zones you are plotting, the majority of them will act as an attraction point that pulls price towards it, rather than pushing it away.
Price always aims to eliminate as many zones as possible.
  • #1,298
  • May 31, 2018 10:52am May 31, 2018 10:52am
lol what happened to this thread? Oh trading journal. That sounds good.

Hey OP, what is your entry criteria and rules for your trading? Do you have a trade explorer to support your trading journal?

Can you tell a little bit about yourself since this is a trading journal section? Like how long have you been trading? Were you very poor last time and then you found the holy grail and now you want to teach us for FREE? I will subscribe to your trading journal gladly if you show me your trading rules.

After all, it's a trading journal now. I will drop by when i am free. I am mostly browsing the trading discussion section but once in a while, i will drop by the trading journal section yeah? I hope you don't get moved to commercial section because everything is free right?
  • #1,299
  • May 31, 2018 10:56am May 31, 2018 10:56am
Quoting iamsovereign
{quote} Its a conspiracy against the frac freak I new it
@ frac freak- this is called sarcasm --- this was not an agreement

where is the laughing man emojis when I need him-
Live today like theres no tomorrow-- Prioritize like you will die today
  • #1,300
  • May 31, 2018 11:04am May 31, 2018 11:04am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I don't think because I don't look at price... not at entry and not at exits. Price does not exist for me in my design. I do not use stops either. Never have and never will. "Price Action" is a fallacy. I am the first one on the internet to say this sh*t over and over again! I do not use TPs either. This was just to show you guys how I think.. only market orders for entries and exits 100% of the time.
Ok you have a valid point, would you like to explain where you place your market orders for your entry's and exit?
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
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