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The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed!

  • #1,001
  • May 30, 2018 12:01am May 30, 2018 12:01am
Quoting iamsovereign
{quote} Im just following the spirit of the thread.
I second your emotion.

Hehe
  • #1,002
  • May 30, 2018 1:51am May 30, 2018 1:51am
Quoting Sciurus
Retail traders are fairly predictable when they place their stops. The concept of order flow trading has been around for quite some time - Darkstar was one of the first on this forum. I'm not sure what he is doing now. The last I heard he was following his passion for internet marketing, but his book is definitely worth a read. {image}
I ask again....

 

  1. what will happen to markets if every trader (retail, institutional, professional) stop using pending orders (Stops, take profits, Buy Stop, Sell Stop, Buy Limit, Sell Limit) and start using only Manual Market Orders for entries and exits. Would SM still win?
  2. Same Question as #1 but now on unleveraged accounts where no margin calls are involved. Would SM still win?

Staying in my lane...
  • #1,003
  • May 30, 2018 2:58am May 30, 2018 2:58am
Quoting Sciurus
Retail traders are fairly predictable when they place their stops. The concept of order flow trading has been around for quite some time - Darkstar was one of the first on this forum. I'm not sure what he is doing now. The last I heard he was following his passion for internet marketing, but his book is definitely worth a read. {image}
Darkstar ... remember him well. From what I can see though his huge amounts of work to decipher order flow et al never really paid off. He ended up going commercial and even that gradually fizzled out; all this in spite of his obvious intellect, dilligence and graft.

To his credit, his take on the market was solid enough that it was copied, rebadged and sold by dozens of hucksters out there over the years. But all the market mechanics, liquidity pools, price manipulation, everything - all boiled down to one essential idea - price moves to create maximum pain. Whether or not this thread really expands beyond that - and no, I've not watched all the videos - is down to the OP. Ironically, I've found the most value in the areas the OP has already dismissed. But then, that's what makes a market...
  • #1,004
  • May 30, 2018 3:24am May 30, 2018 3:24am
Hi FF,

I watched the videos in the thread, and in your two youtube channels. I totally agree on how the market moves, and the basis of it being the accumulations collections and targets from there onwards. I have nothing but great respect for you for the countless number of videos you've posted, and the sublime truth you are trying to propagate. Well done!. However my problem is I see all of the action in hindsight. But looking into the future anticipating needs data like the indicator you utilize. Since the indicator cannot be shared, What methods do you suggest us to use in-order to identify these stop collection levels? (STS, LTS, MTS).
  • #1,005
  • May 30, 2018 3:32am May 30, 2018 3:32am
Hello FractalF
Thank you for the great Videos

Question
The EURUSD went from 1.2400 to 1.1500 in the last 6 weeks. The SM-Algos can’t move the market that much and they can’t stop that move because its fundamental.
What they do is constantly run the stops, breakeven stops, Trailing stops, to prevent that the DM can profit from that move. Is that correct?

Not only the FX Market is rigged, as a great comedian explains in 3 minutes. George Carlin ~ The American Dream


Inserted Video
  • #1,006
  • May 30, 2018 4:46am May 30, 2018 4:46am
Quoting Climber
... Not only the FX Market is rigged, as a great comedian explains in 3 minutes. George Carlin ~ The American Dream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO-2Q
So true and great video
POW!
  • #1,007
  • May 30, 2018 5:25am May 30, 2018 5:25am
Quoting triphop
{quote} Darkstar ... remember him well. From what I can see though his huge amounts of work to decipher order flow et al never really paid off. He ended up going commercial and even that gradually fizzled out; all this in spite of his obvious intellect, dilligence and graft. To his credit, his take on the market was solid enough that it was copied, rebadged and sold by dozens of hucksters out there over the years. But all the market mechanics, liquidity pools, price manipulation, everything - all boiled down to one essential idea - price moves to...
Darkstar's stuff makes sense. Order flow can be an edge. However, according to some of this subscribers, Darkstar is not a profitable trader. As one trader mentioned, you can have an edge but still blow your account. Trading takes much more than having an edge. Unfortunately newbies don't understand that. They equate having an edge with being a trading guru. Among those 95% traders who don't make it, a lot of them have their own edges. They are just unable to find a way to generate profit consistently in spite of the edge they have. And some of them end up making money by pretending to be trading guru and selling their edge. The OP's stuff makes sense too. I don't know if he is a profitable trader or not. However, one thing is for sure, even if all traders in the world have access to his magical indicator and watch his videos and do all the homework, the number of traders who can make it will not be much more than 5%, because the most important factor in the trading equation is the trader himself, not any indicators, not even the strategy.
  • #1,008
  • May 30, 2018 5:58am May 30, 2018 5:58am
  •  regme
  • | Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Planning to be like Warren Buffett | 115 Posts
FF I wish to share link, How SM poison minds of DM.

Inserted Video
  • #1,009
  • May 30, 2018 6:02am May 30, 2018 6:02am
Market manipulation is not a new concept. All traders who study Volume Spread Analysis know that markets are manipulated. See http://www.marketmanipulation.com
  • #1,010
  • May 30, 2018 7:09am May 30, 2018 7:09am
NZDUSD is well played today.
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  • #1,011
  • May 30, 2018 7:22am May 30, 2018 7:22am
Quoting Hairi
NZDUSD is well played today. {image}
yes, and good for a little short later :-)
(.)(.) think first ...
  • #1,012
  • May 30, 2018 7:47am May 30, 2018 7:47am
Hairi, what is that indicator? Is it connected with the fib tool and how does one apply it?
  • #1,013
  • May 30, 2018 7:50am May 30, 2018 7:50am
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sell order lurking around 1.169XX
  • #1,014
  • May 30, 2018 8:13am May 30, 2018 8:13am
Quoting maximumguita
{quote} yes, and good for a little short later :-)
maybe not yet.
according to FF ideas (from what i understand), we'll wait for accumulation/distribution of DM orders to make a move.
the more DM short this trade, the more price will go in upward direction.
from what i understand for NZDUSD trade structure TODAY, both DM seller/buyer are f**kup. haha..
but we'll see what FF has to offer on his ideas..
stay safe.
  • #1,015
  • May 30, 2018 8:15am May 30, 2018 8:15am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I ask again.... what will happen to markets if every trader (retail, institutional, professional) stop using pending orders (Stops, take profits, Buy Stop, Sell Stop, Buy Limit, Sell Limit) and start using only Manual Market Orders for entries and exits. Would SM still win? Same Question as #1 but now on unleveraged accounts where no margin calls are involved. Would SM still win?

VEEFX- interesting thought experiment. I think your first question can be broken down further into 1a) what would happen if pending orders were invisible to all, and b) what would happen if pending did not exist. for 1a, I honestly don't think much would change. The market would look much like it does now because the FX market exists for may other reasons than for speculation. I really don't personally believe in the whole smart money/dumb money dichotomy when it comes to FX. So I can't answer with certainty what would happen to "DM" or "SM" in this scenario. But my inclination is that retail traders new to the game will continue to lose at a very high rate due to having a gambling mentality and a poor understanding of risk. I'm not sure that that that would translate into better or worse profits for "SM". It does not make sense that SM play the same games with stop hunts. I think its fairly obvious for example that many algo firms parse the language and sentiment of unexpected news articles and place positions accordingly and very rapidly (much faster than the average human attention span can cope with). So is it all about the stops? NO. Now for 1b, I think the market might show a greater variability in volatility during different times of the day (must be at terminal to trade) and there might be a larger number of price spikes (lack of liquidity in the form of limit orders). It'd be a pretty crazy ride.

Now for #2. Yes, SM would still win. They did before retail FX became a thing, and they will continue to do so.

Here is an update on the USDCAD. Notice that the majority (>60%) of Oanda's retail traders were correct (with some assumptions about how they are positioned). The stops for the longs were taken out (intentionally? I doubt it!) Price went down. Now lets see if they can get out without losing (assuming they aren't still in a losing position that they have been holding for a longer time). Is that their stops now around the 1.3 area??.
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  • #1,016
  • May 30, 2018 8:21am May 30, 2018 8:21am
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My data is with 12 hours delay but im seing with my eyes what ff and Veefx are saying.
Ty guys.
  • #1,017
  • May 30, 2018 8:22am May 30, 2018 8:22am
All markets are a rigged game - you can assume that from the very start. Now go in and make your profits which can be made in both rigged and free markets!
  • #1,018
  • May 30, 2018 8:26am May 30, 2018 8:26am
audsusd stop cloud
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  • #1,019
  • May 30, 2018 8:38am May 30, 2018 8:38am
Quoting triphop
{quote} Darkstar ... remember him well. From what I can see though his huge amounts of work to decipher order flow et al never really paid off. He ended up going commercial and even that gradually fizzled out; all this in spite of his obvious intellect, dilligence and graft. To his credit, his take on the market was solid enough that it was copied, rebadged and sold by dozens of hucksters out there over the years. But all the market mechanics, liquidity pools, price manipulation, everything - all boiled down to one essential idea - price moves to...
This thread reminds me of another one I was involved in when I first started to trade. Very intelligent OP, unique views on the market, etc. Long story short, it turned out he was using his ranking at FF to solicit and accept money from unsuspecting members for his "fund". The scam was complete with a lackey doing the menial task of collecting the funds - his job was to sound smart on the forum. I know because I was part of the Facebook group that outed him. Some of you might remember him - EURUSDD. He played the same kind of game - "i'll show you something amazing after you have thought about this", " demonstrate to me that you understand that and I'll then blow your mind", " here is a hint to the key that will unlock everything for you". My advice to the OP: Quit the bullshit and cut to the quick or you risk losing your thread. my advice to everyone else - if you are solicited through FF for money by anyone on FF (this thread included) don't do it. And for God's sake, don't offer your money unsolicited. The longer a thread stays open and the more mysterious and grand it seems, the more people seem willing to throw their money at it because deep down they want it to be true but 99.99999999999% of the time it simply isn't.
  • #1,020
  • May 30, 2018 8:49am May 30, 2018 8:49am
USDCAD

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