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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #76,741
  • May 28, 2018 10:48pm May 28, 2018 10:48pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
try another long here at 109.00 see what happens. {image} if it holds it has the correct shape.
Maybe a small bounce at 108.60?
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #76,742
  • May 28, 2018 10:59pm May 28, 2018 10:59pm
Quoting darthPip
{quote} Maybe a small bounce at 108.60?
it just retested last weeks low. well see how high it will bounce.
  • #76,743
  • May 28, 2018 11:49pm May 28, 2018 11:49pm
Quoting 4xjunkie
try another long here at 109.00 see what happens. {image} if it holds it has the correct shape.

Showing a bearish golf flag you are, 108.6 target I see. Price broke a pretty big wedge which formed both on the 15 min and the extension on the 4 hour. With the bearish bias. Also a H+S has formed as 15 min and 4 hr pattern (from last week for 4hr) and current at the neck on both.
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #76,744
  • May 28, 2018 11:54pm May 28, 2018 11:54pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Showing a bearish golf flag you are, 108.6 target I see. {image} {image}
I agree with that. The short-term downtrend seems pretty established. Would be foolish to buy at this point.

However I can't help but feel that a retest of the previous high should be imminent.

I like the 107.93 point for a potential long. However it's subject to change. JUST SIT ON YOUR HANDS.
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Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #76,745
  • May 28, 2018 11:57pm May 28, 2018 11:57pm
Here is ahead line which just pop up 9 mins ago, FF main page.

USD/JPY Forecast: Bearish odds improving, drop to 108.20 likely


https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=770484
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #76,746
  • May 28, 2018 11:57pm May 28, 2018 11:57pm
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} I agree with that. The short-term downtrend seems pretty established. Would be foolish to buy at this point. However I can't help but feel that a retest of the previous high should be imminent. {image}

Anything is possible.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #76,747
  • May 29, 2018 12:07am May 29, 2018 12:07am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} I agree with that. The short-term downtrend seems pretty established. Would be foolish to buy at this point. However I can't help but feel that a retest of the previous high should be imminent. I like the 107.93 point for a potential long. However it's subject to change. JUST SIT ON YOUR HANDS. {image}
There is a rate hike coming in june my friend.If UJ retests previous highs it gets stuck in no man's land.
It can only roll downward from here.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #76,748
  • May 29, 2018 12:12am May 29, 2018 12:12am
Quoting darthPip
{quote} There is a rate hike coming in june my friend.If UJ retests previous highs it gets stuck in no man's land. It can only roll downward from here.
True, I am very bearish on the pair. Just know that it ranges quite consistently.

Rate hike for the US? Would probably create upward pressure for the dollar no?
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #76,749
  • May 29, 2018 12:24am May 29, 2018 12:24am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} True, I am very bearish on the pair. Just know that it ranges quite consistently. Rate hike for the US? Would probably create upward pressure for the dollar no?
Rate hikes creating upward pressure is no longer fashionable for USD
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #76,750
  • May 29, 2018 12:36am May 29, 2018 12:36am
Quoting darthPip
{quote} Rate hikes creating upward pressure is no longer fashionable for USD
Still, there would be some effect, I doubt the carry-trade opportunists would be silent.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #76,751
  • May 29, 2018 12:43am May 29, 2018 12:43am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} Still, there would be some effect, I doubt the carry-trade opportunists would be silent.
The only thing that can change the long term trend here is mid term elections.Still some time for the event (It's my whiskey posting on forum now....cheers...GN )
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #76,752
  • May 29, 2018 3:02am May 29, 2018 3:02am
Yen futures catching a big again this morning, probably due to the turmoil in the EU over the weekend

how long does it run before a "political solution" is found?



J7 H4
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #76,753
  • May 29, 2018 3:28am May 29, 2018 3:28am
Quoting theDHT
Yen futures catching a big again this morning, probably due to the turmoil in the EU over the weekend how long does it run before a "political solution" is found? J7 H4 {image}
The way I see it, the only two viable long term political solutions for the EU are --

Become one centrally run/ruled 'bloc'
Break up the EU and go back to independent countries/currencies

Monetary union without political union will always be a disaster.
  • #76,754
  • May 29, 2018 3:37am May 29, 2018 3:37am
Quoting Luzbay
{quote} The way I see it, the only two viable long term political solutions for the EU are -- Become one centrally run/ruled 'bloc' Break up the EU and go back to independent countries/currencies Monetary union without political union will always be a disaster.
i have little faith in politicians to do anything other than protect their own jobs and entitlements... so whatever happens will probably be painful for the people
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #76,755
  • May 29, 2018 5:25am May 29, 2018 5:25am
Quoting Luzbay
{quote} The way I see it, the only two viable long term political solutions for the EU are -- Become one centrally run/ruled 'bloc' Break up the EU and go back to independent countries/currencies Monetary union without political union will always be a disaster.
I doubt that it will revert to the previous status of independent nations. Rarely does politics take a step backward.

At the end of the day, some of brightest, sharpest and greatest are involved in the EU project. I'm unfamiliar with the internal problems, and I don't pretend to have any answers, yet I'm sure that human ingenuity will overrule. It is in the majority of nations interests to remain in the EU.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #76,756
  • May 29, 2018 6:48am May 29, 2018 6:48am
Quoting CannonScout
{quote} I doubt that it will revert to the previous status of independent nations. Rarely does politics take a step backward. At the end of the day, some of brightest, sharpest and greatest are involved in the EU project. I'm unfamiliar with the internal problems, and I don't pretend to have any answers, yet I'm sure that human ingenuity will overrule. It is in the majority of nations interests to remain in the EU.
Me neither, but in my mind they are the only two options that present a viable, long term solution for the problem that is the Euro.

Absolutely, it makes tonnes of sense for the countries to remain in the European Union, but not necessarily with the shared currency. The decision the UK made not to join the Euro all those years ago is, arguably, one of the best financial decisions a country has made in recent history.

Therein lies the unsolvable problem.
  • #76,757
  • May 29, 2018 7:09am May 29, 2018 7:09am
Quoting Luzbay
{quote} Me neither, but in my mind they are the only two options that present a viable, long term solution for the problem that is the Euro. Absolutely, it makes tonnes of sense for the countries to remain in the European Union, but not necessarily with the shared currency. The decision the UK made not to join the Euro all those years ago is, arguably, one of the best financial decisions a country has made in recent history. Therein lies the unsolvable problem.
Agree completely.

Control of a currency by unappointed bureaucrats is a failed proposition in the making. Amazing it has lasted as long as it has but it only a matter of time before it no longer does.
  • #76,758
  • May 29, 2018 8:28am May 29, 2018 8:28am
Of the low coming re-test. Hmmmmmm.
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #76,759
  • May 29, 2018 8:33am May 29, 2018 8:33am
sell rallies, take profit at 105 ?
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,760
  • May 29, 2018 9:11am May 29, 2018 9:11am
Quoting MrPresident
sell rallies, take profit at 105 ?
That's my thinking, at the moment.

Initial target is 108.
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