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TMS for M30 charts

  • #17,761
  • May 14, 2018 6:20am May 14, 2018 6:20am
Quoting kain775
lisa, how do you handle trades where the TDI signal happens at the same time as the London Open or US Open? do you still take the trade? or do you pass on it?
Would be interested too.

Also could you tell me what risk reward ratio in practise is possible to achieve following this strategy trading the M30 time frame ? Because i noticed in most cases there is no really much room for a potential winner. In most cases i get something around 15-20 pips on average for a winner. Means for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio i would have so set my stop loss around 5 Pips. Also means i would have to hit the perfect timing on each setup not to have it stopped out by every little retracement even if i am correct with the overall trend direction.
  • #17,762
  • May 14, 2018 8:48am May 14, 2018 8:48am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Would be interested too. Also could you tell me what risk reward ratio in practise is possible to achieve following this strategy trading the M30 time frame ? Because i noticed in most cases there is no really much room for a potential winner. In most cases i get something around 15-20 pips on average for a winner. Means for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio i would have so set my stop loss around 5 Pips. Also means i would have to hit the perfect timing on each setup not to have it stopped out by every little retracement even if i am correct with...

i've seen likica take trades from 1:1 to 1:3 in some cases

her overall risk reward probably averages out at like 1:1.5 or something

me personally, if i cannot get 1:2 i tend not to enter. Often if i get a tdi cross i will hang back and see it price retraces and if it does i'll enter once i can get 1:2 .. if price does not retrace enough then that's too bad for me, but that's life.

was waiting for a retrace today with a pending order on usd/jpy to go long and price missed my pending order by 0.2 pips and then started taking off...
  • #17,763
  • May 15, 2018 12:20am May 15, 2018 12:20am
Quoting kain775
lisa, how do you handle trades where the TDI signal happens at the same time as the London Open or US Open? do you still take the trade? or do you pass on it?
If everything looks good I will take it, whatever time it is, the only exception is when Frankfurt opens, I am always wary that it can tend to go in one direction only for London to swing it the other way, especially with GU.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #17,764
  • May 15, 2018 10:08am May 15, 2018 10:08am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Would be interested too. Also could you tell me what risk reward ratio in practise is possible to achieve following this strategy trading the M30 time frame ? Because i noticed in most cases there is no really much room for a potential winner. In most cases i get something around 15-20 pips on average for a winner. Means for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio i would have so set my stop loss around 5 Pips. Also means i would have to hit the perfect timing on each setup not to have it stopped out by every little retracement even if i am correct with...
Can you post some trades you've taken to have a look? I find if you can take trades as close as possible to the 10ema with space to a pivot for 50 pips it will generally go there.
Success means going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm
  • #17,765
  • May 15, 2018 3:12pm May 15, 2018 3:12pm
Quoting sknight1
. Hey LK, Just popping in real quick to say "Hello". ((( hug ))) . {image}
Nice Green!!!
Positive anything is better than negative thinking.- Elbert Hubbard
  • #17,766
  • May 15, 2018 3:12pm May 15, 2018 3:12pm
Just popping in to say hello. Hope all is well.
Positive anything is better than negative thinking.- Elbert Hubbard
  • #17,767
  • May 21, 2018 7:20am May 21, 2018 7:20am
Quoting redcloudxlll
Just popping in to say hello. Hope all is well.
Good day & good week to you and all
Appreciation is the key to wealth and happiness
  • #17,768
  • May 21, 2018 8:27am May 21, 2018 8:27am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Would be interested too. Also could you tell me what risk reward ratio in practise is possible to achieve following this strategy trading the M30 time frame ? Because i noticed in most cases there is no really much room for a potential winner. In most cases i get something around 15-20 pips on average for a winner. Means for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio i would have so set my stop loss around 5 Pips. Also means i would have to hit the perfect timing on each setup not to have it stopped out by every little retracement even if i am correct with...


and you're doing something wrong in your setups if you're trading m30 and only getting 15-20 pips on average.

observe how much Likica typically gets, it's usually 30+....

anyways, here's a trade i took earlier. Personally I like waiting for price to pullback after the TDI cross and then get in, so i can secure a decent risk to reward
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 21.05.2018 WINNER.png Size: 31 KB
  • #17,769
  • May 21, 2018 8:30am May 21, 2018 8:30am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Would be interested too. Also could you tell me what risk reward ratio in practise is possible to achieve following this strategy trading the M30 time frame ? Because i noticed in most cases there is no really much room for a potential winner. In most cases i get something around 15-20 pips on average for a winner. Means for a 1:2 risk/reward ratio i would have so set my stop loss around 5 Pips. Also means i would have to hit the perfect timing on each setup not to have it stopped out by every little retracement even if i am correct with...
I have been struggling with the exact same problem. I trade New York session and find that most of the moves happen overnight. New York tends to have some news spikes and then go flat, by the time the dust settles on the news spikes it is late in the move and nearly impossible to get better than 1:1.

I would be really interested in learning if someone has found a way to differentiate between trades that will continue to move and those that just go into sideways chop.

I suspect that it is not doable--unfortunately.

Keith
  • #17,770
  • May 23, 2018 8:29am May 23, 2018 8:29am
Quoting kminler
{quote} I have been struggling with the exact same problem. I trade New York session and find that most of the moves happen overnight. New York tends to have some news spikes and then go flat, by the time the dust settles on the news spikes it is late in the move and nearly impossible to get better than 1:1. I would be really interested in learning if someone has found a way to differentiate between trades that will continue to move and those that just go into sideways chop. I suspect that it is not doable--unfortunately. Keith
If you don't mind sharing your trading plan/ your trading style, I might be able to add more to your edge, otherwise, I can't say much about what didn't/ don't work for you. You trade your plan and manage your trades, don't let the market manage your trades or just sitting there and saying 1:1 or more unless you are an investor who is doing set and forget trades.
Appreciation is the key to wealth and happiness
  • #17,771
  • May 25, 2018 11:58am May 25, 2018 11:58am
took this one yesterday.
was aware of the support but reckoned it would go through it

have combined likica's style and stuff based on my own observations to take this trade

price at multiple resistances
hidden div on m30 and h4
h4 tdi below 50
tdi cross
last d1 bar bearish

I was thinking the diagonal support could not possibly hold under all that ...and i was right

I have noticed when taking hidden div trades on m30 that it is much better if the tdi on h4 is below the 50
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 25.05.2018 winner key.png Size: 37 KB
  • #17,772
  • May 25, 2018 12:05pm May 25, 2018 12:05pm
I am predicting at least a 60 pip drive to the upside based on market observations. Tbh it will probably go considerably further. I think RR 1:3 + may be possible here if one were to get in on the pullback

I decided not to though as it's friday. It will be interesting to see if i am right on monday and if price shoots up, as this is a bit of an experimental prediction as I am looking at things I don't normally take into account so perhaps this trade prediction won't go to plan....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud will it or wont it d1 double bottom tdi dbl bottom div h4 weak mbl cross consolidation at.png Size: 36 KB
  • #17,773
  • May 26, 2018 8:40am May 26, 2018 8:40am
Quoting likica
{quote} If you don't mind sharing your trading plan/ your trading style, I might be able to add more to your edge, otherwise, I can't say much about what didn't/ don't work for you. You trade your plan and manage your trades, don't let the market manage your trades or just sitting there and saying 1:1 or more unless you are an investor who is doing set and forget trades.
Hi Likica

Thanks for your offer. I trade a very basic retracement strategy, I have an indicator, Marco-ColorCrossoever which defines the trend with a 35 ma and uses two fast Ma to confirm retracements, generally the 8 and 3 periods. Then I require a TDI cross, the TDI cross could happen before the confirmed retracement. In addition to these major criteria, I have a whole slew of factors I look at; candlestick patterns, S&R, news, which in New York is a major headache, big round numbers and even Davits pivots.

For some reason 'upload screenshot' does not work for me (multiple monitors?) so here is a screen capture with all of the non-TMS stuff stripped out.

A couple of things to note, the red line is trade entry, blue bar recent support broken, SL at top of the blue bar, 16 pips, the dashed box is my trading time, starting at 8:00 a.m. N.Y. , I very rarely enter trades after the midway point since I do not like to have open positions overnight. Note the 38 pip range for the session, this is really typical and really limits the choice of TP/SL.

I feel that if you enter a trade at say 10 am EST, then by the time the London open rolls around the original factors driving the entry are likely no longer valid and if you wait that long it is just a coin toss.

Looking at this trade in hindsight I can see that it is late in the move from the swing high, which is a bit of a pattern for me getting in too late. Also a very shallow retracement.

Your thoughts will be much appreciated, if you don't mind a non-TMS intrusion and think that it is helpful I can upload a shot including the Mario ColorCrossover.

thanks

keith
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sample trade.PNG Size: 40 KB
  • #17,774
  • May 26, 2018 8:54am May 26, 2018 8:54am
Quoting kminler
{quote} Hi Likica Thanks for your offer. I trade a very basic retracement strategy, I have an indicator, Marco-ColorCrossoever which defines the trend with a 35 ma and uses two fast Ma to confirm retracements, generally the 8 and 3 periods. Then I require a TDI cross, the TDI cross could happen before the confirmed retracement. In addition to these major criteria, I have a whole slew of factors I look at; candlestick patterns, S&R, news, which in New York is a major headache, big round numbers and even Davits pivots. For some reason 'upload screenshot'...


I am not likica [so take my comments with a grain of salt] but that blue bar does not look like support to me

also at the point where price broke your "support" .., if you went short ..you are now selling into a divergence [if you look on your indicator]. I don't know about everyone else, but this is not something I would do........
  • #17,775
  • May 26, 2018 10:45pm May 26, 2018 10:45pm
Quoting kain775
{quote} I am not likica [so take my comments with a grain of salt] but that blue bar does not look like support to me also at the point where price broke your "support" .., if you went short ..you are now selling into a divergence [if you look on your indicator]. I don't know about everyone else, but this is not something I would do........

Hi, Kain thanks for your comments.

I should not have used the phrase local support, there was no intent to imply that this is meaningful long-term support, just a 6 bar period of sideways chop, consolidation, range trading, congestion, whatever. The two bearish candles breaking out of the congestion I took as supporting a bearish position, they would never trigger a trade just on their own.

Divergence is a real struggle for me and I haven't found it usefully reliable. In real time with this trade, I saw a retrace in TDI which matches and confirms the retrace in price action, the TDI cross then hopefully confirms the return to trend trade, my system is to trade retraces yielding a return to trend. Given the large bearish entry candle that seemed reasonable. Obviously MR. Market didn't agree.

As to why I don't have a lot of faith in divergence I have attached a screenshot showing what happened on the second bearish trade, note that a third of the way through there is bullish divergence and technically I would have bailed out of the trade too early.

in any event, my original post related to IDDD's post about how to get a decent R:R, and in this trade I had hoped that a return to trend with two large bearish candles would have enough Momentum to go further.

So still looking for the holy grail.

thanks for the input

Keith
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sample trade 2.PNG Size: 37 KB
  • #17,776
  • Edited 2:53am May 27, 2018 2:32am | Edited 2:53am
Quoting kminler
{quote} Hi, Kain thanks for your comments. I should not have used the phrase local support, there was no intent to imply that this is meaningful long-term support, just a 6 bar period of sideways chop, consolidation, range trading, congestion, whatever. The two bearish candles breaking out of the congestion I took as supporting a bearish position, they would never trigger a trade just on their own. Divergence is a real struggle for me and I haven't found it usefully reliable. In real time with this trade, I saw a retrace in TDI which matches and...

hi again, you seem a bit confused about divergence

for the first trade price had made a new low, but the indicator hadn't. by going short here you are selling into a divergence.


for the second trade you took it looks like probably had hidden divergence on your side at time of entry [by looking at your indicator]
Price had not made another new low yet. Therefore you were not selling into a divergence when you went short.

selling into a divergence = price making a new low, but the indicator not making a new low, and you selling on that new low ...which you did in trade one but not trade two

if you are entering at low probability points like you were doing in trade one, then more times or not the trade isn't going to yield profits.

no yellow market base line in your TDI either. Better to have one than to not have one imo unless you are tms expert and don't need it
  • #17,777
  • May 27, 2018 2:43am May 27, 2018 2:43am
Quoting kminler
{quote} Hi, Kain thanks for your comments. I should not have used the phrase local support, there was no intent to imply that this is meaningful long-term support, just a 6 bar period of sideways chop, consolidation, range trading, congestion, whatever. The two bearish candles breaking out of the congestion I took as supporting a bearish position, they would never trigger a trade just on their own. Divergence is a real struggle for me and I haven't found it usefully reliable. In real time with this trade, I saw a retrace in TDI which matches and...

As for the original question about entering trades late in the trading day [past US open] .. I agree with you that sometimes price can range a lot and do nothing at this time till next day sometimes.

i used to find this problem too so try not to trade past US open, ..but recently I think I may have found how to know if price will continue ..but am not sure yet, it needs more testing. I will try and make a post on it if the testing proves successful

but like yourself, I am still eager to see likica's opinion on this
  • #17,778
  • May 27, 2018 9:43am May 27, 2018 9:43am
Quoting kain775
{quote} As for the original question about entering trades late in the trading day [past US open] .. I agree with you that sometimes price can range a lot and do nothing at this time till next day sometimes. i used to find this problem too so try not to trade past US open, ..but recently I think I may have found how to know if price will continue ..but am not sure yet, it needs more testing. I will try and make a post on it if the testing proves successful but like yourself, I am still eager to see likica's opinion on this

Hey Kain

thanks for the comments. if you do find a way to determine if the price action is likely to continue I am all ears. If you'd like help testing I am up for that. Lord knows what I am doing isn't working and I tried getting up at 3 a.m. to trade London and found that my brain is even more dysfunctional at that time.

Keith
  • #17,779
  • May 28, 2018 4:12am May 28, 2018 4:12am
trading with the trend

hidden div on h4
h4 tdi below 50
last h4 bar bearish
last d1 bar bearish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud 28.05.2018 hidden div on h4.png Size: 36 KB
  • #17,780
  • May 29, 2018 11:50am May 29, 2018 11:50am
Hi traders,
I'm a TMS apprentice and I love this thread for its wealth of examples which I'm working my way through and want to thank everyone for their contributions. I also wanted to PM Lisa but haven't quite figured out how to do that on FF so I thought I'd ask here and hopefully she sees it. I was going through some posts from last year and she had talked about compounding after every trade, with impressive results. My question is if her results continue to be so amazing with this system? I'm taking your advice to heart Lisa and reading some great traders posts including yours thoroughly and putting in the work to practice so it inspires me to know that someday I may be half as good as you guys. Thanks again for your time and sharing your knowledge and experience.
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