London Open Breakout-M30

Hi all,
have been inspired by these breakout systems, which are uncanningly reliable.
I have taken this idea from
"7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy" http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=103682
& the 0400-0700 GMT breakout strategy http://www.forexfactory.com/t/183582...trategy-1.html.
I originally started a EUR/JPY straddle thread
http://www.forexfactory.com/t/181945/eurjpy-pairs-straddle-tokyo-open-1.html
EUR/JPY Straddle by Me, Bazza
I decided to open a separate thread to the above as it confuses the origininators method.

Upon investigating years of charts, I found this: Don't straddle the London open, but the first 30 minutes of the London open, which is 0800-0830 London time. The Daily trend has been usually established by then. Always be aware of News, especially interest rates, better have that day off.
Method: Set your entry + 5 pips + spread above/below 0800-0830 London 30 min candle. Currency pair: GBP/USD.
Stop loss is opposite of 30 minute candle, or 50 pips if 30 min candle > 50 pips.TP1 is + 30, TP2 is + 60, TP3 is + 90.
Use Trailing stop of 25 pips.
Last evening, Aug 4, my profit was 3 * 19 pips, as T/S took me out, which was good as pair reversed & would have been a loss.
evening before was +30 & + 60. I only entered 2 positions.

Hope you make some nice pips.

the 29th of July to 31st of July wouldnt have been good days for this?

Lets see how it runs.

29 July would have been a -25 pip loss. 31 July a -40 pip loss, but 30 July a 30 pip profit, if your buffer wasn't that tight & you got stopped short, nevertheless, the 25 pip TS would have kept you in profit.

Nothing in this game is 100%, it is Risk reward & probability, & MM to stop you wiping your account out, & I said earlier, ALWAYS check for news. Big News-don't trade.
Bazza

3 stop outs for -26 * 3, had to enter quickly & manually due market moving fast, but I made an execution error- entered too soon, manually, at market, an EA or script would have prevented that.
But upside I made +26, +56, +46 due T/S. ( Targets were 30, 60 + 90, but spread was 4, hence 26, 56, etc)so, net gain, + 50 pips.

think i may have been using a different candle to you?
What was your high and low of the 30 min candle yesterday?
Thanks
Ian

The 1st 30 minute candle of the London market open is GMT 07:00 until GMT 07:30.

Let's all be sure we are using the correct candle...

Hope I am...LOL

time issue again ? Lets use 3 pages to discuss about it

Sorry about that...but clarification is vital for success.

bazza,

I'm not certain how you are implementing the Trailing Stop of 25 pips. If you enter the TS at the pending order level, this would obviate the regular SL because 25 pips is most likely to be less than the distance to the other side of the box.

How/when do you use the TS?

Thanks,
Bob

Great breakout today too !

I am talking London local time, when the market opens in London, which is 0800, London, be it daylight saving or not. I Straddle the 0800-0830 London Candle, ie, I don't place my orders until the time in London has reached 0830 in London. Just pretend you are in London & need to catch a plane that leaves London-Heathrow at 8:30 am in the morning.

Bazza

Nice

I hate to impose but...could you possibly give me a lift to the airport?

Thanks for the thread and sharing your thoughts!

Just as a note for everyone else here, that means it's 7:00 to 7:30 GMT from late March until October (British Summer Time is GMT+1). IBFX is GMT, Alpari UK is GMT+2 (yes, you read that right, their server is an hour ahead of their own summer time and as far as I know they keep it there year round).

Anyway, this thread caught my eye because it's very similar to the old 15min opening breakout on equities back in the day. I know some people advocate fading that instead but, so far, the same effect hasn't happened in forex so it's still a fairly high probability entry in my experience. (It's been years since I've traded NYSE intraday though, so it might work again there now too, I can't say for sure.)

I use a similar method (not exactly the same, but pretty much the same principles) on GBP/USD and EUR/JPY and it's been one of my consistent sources of income over the past year. I just use two halves for the targets (instead of 3) and I make sure the average of the two targets equals larger than the stop so the overall R-R is high while the initial target gives better probabilities (plus lowers the risk).

Your 3 targets might work too, but don't be too rigid with the exact numbers, watch the market and exit them when you see areas where price tends to stall. Sometimes you can get 120 to 200 (with very shallow retraces) on the last remaining entry so it's well worth it to do this and just one of these pays for more than one of the occasional stop-outs so it helps your bottom line quite a bit.

Keep up the good work.

Yesterday, Aug 7, 2009, Much Red news on GBP & Eurozone , & today, Aug 8, Non Farm payroll- so, No trade, &, guess what? The system didn't work, I didn't trade. Markets tend to go sideways before big news.
Just another pip for your toolbox,
Bazza

Bazza mate,

For a good simple strategy like yours there is always one primary thing to do: instead of allowing the price to "choose" which of your orders to hit, you can try to make a choice yourself. What I mean is, you can choose a preferable breakout direction (up or down) beforehand, a direction where you're likely to get higher percentage of being right. It may sound too simple, but Parabolic SAR with default settings (0.02, 0.2) might be on your side. Before 8:00 am GMT, for example, Parabolic SAR, as a rule, already establishes its trend preferences. So, the only thing you need to do is to follow it. For example, if SAR suggests an uptrend at the moment you set up your trades, then go with a Buy Stop order only and a Stop loss.
This simple approach should increase your winning ratio.

Keep the good systems flowing Bazza!

ashane

System seems really promising, have you back tested it? And what are the results(if you have)?

cheers

after I reading this thread I was thinking to backtest manualy to see who profitabile is this method
here are my results
Month: Jul
Time frame: 30 minute
Enter on the first break of the 30 minute candel in either direction (7:00-7:30 GMT London open)
I have tested to posible fixed amount of TP area oane for 30 pips and other for 50 pips.

If you where looking to grab only 30 pips here are the results:

Total of trades: 23
Total of winings trade: 16 (69,56%)
Total of loosing trade: 7 (30,43%)

Maximum consecutive win in row: 6
Maximum consecutive loss in row: 5

Amonut of pips gain: +480
Amount of pips loss: -179
--------------------------
total: +301 pips

If you where loking to grab 50 pips here are the results:

Total of trades: 23
Total of winings trade: 8 (34,78%)
Total of loosing trade: 15 (65,21%)

Maximum consecutive win in row: 3
Maximum consecutive loss in row: 6

the amount of pips I didn't count but you can se that it's negative
I'll look to see what results we'll have if we where looking at 15 tf and play
the breakout of the candel from 7:00-7:15 GMT

Hope this help

i'll post when I'll be finised,the results by looking at 15 TF

Month: Jun
Time frame: 30 minute
pair: GBP/USD

I have tested for 3 diferent amounts of TP.

If you where looking to grab only 30 pips here are the results:

Total of trades: 22
Total of winings trade: 15 (68,2%)
Total of loosing trade: 7 (31,8%)

Maximum consecutive win in row: 5
Maximum consecutive loss in row: 3

Amonut of pips gain: +450
Amount of pips loss: -252
--------------------------
total: +198 pips

If you where looking to grab only 20 pips here are the results:

Total of trades: 22
Total of winings trade: 17 (77,3%)
Total of loosing trade: 5 (22,7%)

Maximum consecutive win in row: 5
Maximum consecutive loss in row: 1

Amonut of pips gain: +340
Amount of pips loss: -196
--------------------------
total: +144pips

If you where looking to grab only 40pips here are the results:

Total of trades: 22
Total of winings trade: 15 (68,2%)
Total of loosing trade: 7 (31,8%)

Maximum consecutive win in row: 5
Maximum consecutive loss in row: 3

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Month: May
Time frame: 30 minute
pair: GBP/USD

If you where looking to grab only 30 pips here are the results:

Total of trades: 21
Total of winings trade: 16 (76,2%)
Total of loosing trade: 5 (23,8%)

Maximum consecutive win in row: 10
Maximum consecutive loss in row: 2

Amonut of pips gain: +480
Amount of pips loss: -137
--------------------------
total: +343 pips

If you where looking to grab only 20 pips here are the results:

Total of trades: 21
Total of winings trade: 18 (76,2%)
Total of loosing trade: 3 (23,8%)

Maximum consecutive win in row: 10
Maximum consecutive loss in row: 2

Amonut of pips gain: +360
Amount of pips loss: -137
--------------------------
total: +253 pips

If you where looking to grab only 40pips here are the results:

Total of trades: 21
Total of winings trade: 16 (76,2%)
Total of loosing trade: 5 (23,8%)

Maximum consecutive win in row: 10
Maximum consecutive loss in row: 2