Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 55 | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #1,081
  • May 23, 2018 10:39am May 23, 2018 10:39am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Wow my head will explode when i have read all that, have you every attended one of his live events, ticket prices are quite eye watering but there are all high powered attendees not your average FF member
in December 2011 there was NO HIGH POWERED ATTENDEES only normal average people and many groupies.

Marty was a leper for ALL financial institutions.

There were some attendees from these institutions, but coming at their expenses and wanting to stay under the radar ( no comment please, no picture etc )
  • #1,082
  • May 23, 2018 11:16am May 23, 2018 11:16am
Real Estate Cycles
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx ARMSTRONG REAL ESTATE CYCLES.docx   1.7 MB | 422 downloads
  • #1,083
  • May 23, 2018 11:18am May 23, 2018 11:18am
Volatility
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx ARMSTRONG Volatility Models.docx   505 KB | 348 downloads
  • #1,084
  • May 23, 2018 11:20am May 23, 2018 11:20am
Wave Structure
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File Type: docx ARMSTRONG WAVE STRUCTURE.docx   4.3 MB | 507 downloads
  • #1,085
  • May 23, 2018 12:34pm May 23, 2018 12:34pm
https://fr.onmovies.to/film/Vw/The-Forecaster?ep=3_O1Vw

Martin Armstrong THE FORECASTER

FILM
  • #1,086
  • May 23, 2018 4:54pm May 23, 2018 4:54pm
Quoting parisboy
For your information {image}
The system/PDF explains about 1/2, 1/4 and 3/4.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: volume.png Size: 297 KB


Question:
1. Are these 3 numbers the most seen/shown on the chart?
2. What about the other patterns/cycles/wave-combinations: 1/3, 2/3, 1/5, 2/5, 3/5, 4/5, 1/6, 1/7, 6/7? Are these not significant? If yes, why? Can you tell me more about these numbers in relation to this system?
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  • #1,087
  • Edited 5:51pm May 23, 2018 5:12pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting michaellobry
{quote} The system/PDF explains about 1/2, 1/4 and 3/4. {image} Question: 1. Are these 3 numbers the most seen/shown on the chart? 2. What about the other patterns/cycles/wave-combinations: 1/3, 2/3, 1/5, 2/5, 3/5, 4/5, 1/6, 1/7, 6/7? Are these not significant? If yes, why? Can you tell me more about these numbers in relation to this system?
Above chart comes from Chapter 3 of " Torque Analysis" written by Willam Garrett.

This has nothing to do with Hurst .

The best way to understand nothing to cycles in Price Action is to mix various methodologies and to shake them, preferably without mastering at least one.

Moreover Volume has no influence on "energy" - term which has to be defined in matter of Price Action
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Torque Analysis volume + energy.png Size: 297 KB
  • #1,088
  • May 23, 2018 5:25pm May 23, 2018 5:25pm
As you can observe the Support Curve (in blue) = Cumulated (Volume x Price) / Cumulated Volume is very close from the red curve where Volume is everyday the same = 1

Hence we can infer that Volume influence is near to zero
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SUPPORT CURVE NOMINALE.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #1,089
  • May 23, 2018 5:51pm May 23, 2018 5:51pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 11 24 MAI 2018.png Size: 236 KB
  • #1,090
  • May 23, 2018 6:55pm May 23, 2018 6:55pm
Quoting OAPDave
Just doodling ? {image}
I'm also reproducing the chart into MT4 style. See image. It is the first test (32-1, 128-2, 256-4), I will try to improve on it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.png Size: 209 KB
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  • #1,091
  • May 23, 2018 7:07pm May 23, 2018 7:07pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Yes you are correct in your thinking - that is the general idea BUT key points to catch a move with a minimum of safety are : - never going counter trend (there is some exceptions but we are working on the basics) in your chart 2 Envelopes are UP and very close from the Upper Limit of the Lila Enveloppe which shows the most Amplitude and a more or less flat trend so we can suspect a downtrending correction at short term but you have also to take into account the propagation effect. Trend (Up or Down) goes progressively from Envelope 1 with...
Your phrase was: "- never going counter trend (there is some exceptions but we are working on the basics)"

Question:
You said that there are exceptions. Could you please go deeper into the advanced details on trading counter trend? I'm very intrigued.
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  • #1,092
  • May 23, 2018 7:26pm May 23, 2018 7:26pm
Quoting parisboy
Look at this chart from Alex C https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post10774048 Forks Sine Waves Division by 8 of the Operative Price Range Center of Gravity is not Always Horizontal It depends of the Underlying Trend {image}
In this picture the 8 lines are in a diagonal direction. This is the first screenshot where they are not horizontal.

Question 1:
- In your research, experience, to what extent were the results significant?
- according to the system/theory, to what extent are these results significant, when using diagonal lines.

Question 2:
- Correct me if I am wrong. In this thread I have not read what the significance is of high and low degree trendlines. But in your pdf's I did read that high degree trendlines should be considered 'reversal' and ranged market. To what extent are these results significant?


Attached Image
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  • #1,093
  • May 23, 2018 8:14pm May 23, 2018 8:14pm
Could anyone upload the hurst (or similar) indicators that could benefit this system? Attached is only 1 indicator for the Hurst system.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 hurst-indicator.mq4   8 KB | 487 downloads
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  • #1,094
  • May 24, 2018 2:11am May 24, 2018 2:11am
Quoting michaellobry
{quote} Your phrase was: "- never going counter trend (there is some exceptions but we are working on the basics)" Question: You said that there are exceptions. Could you please go deeper into the advanced details on trading counter trend? I'm very intrigued.

IMHO it depens of the Amplitude (or depth) of the Envelopes

Lett's take an example :

If the Amplitude of the Envelope 256 TU is 250 points as right now on the DOW , it means that the Octave is 125.

Envelope 128 TU depth is 125 points
Envelope 32 depth is 62,5 points

as I generally enter after confirmation of the new trend I need "space" to be able to catch some points

It is 4 times easier to catch some points in a counter trend if the depth of the Envelope = 62.5 than if if the depth is 15,625 points
  • #1,095
  • May 24, 2018 2:48am May 24, 2018 2:48am
Quoting michaellobry
{quote} In this picture the 8 lines are in a diagonal direction. This is the first screenshot where they are not horizontal. Question 1: - In your research, experience, to what extent were the results significant? - according to the system/theory, to what extent are these results significant, when using diagonal lines. Question 2: - Correct me if I am wrong. In this thread I have not read what the significance is of high and low degree trendlines. But in your pdf's I did read that high degree trendlines should be considered 'reversal' and ranged...
Price Action can be classified only in 3 ways

- Uptrending
- Ranging
- Downtrending

most examples , at least in Cycles covers ONLY the Ranging Zone where Trend is Neutral / Flat (to simplify)

This chart shows a Downtrending Price Action

If Trend was Neutral or Flat , Price Action would have stopped in C

In the real world Price Action ended in B

The distance CB or Measured Move CB shows the result of the additional negative thrust or energy given to Price Action by the Underlying Trend.

For Jim Hurst the Underlying Trend is the sum of ALL Cycles whose Period is greater than the Cycle Observed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UNDERLYING TREND.png Size: 167 KB
  • #1,096
  • Edited 4:21am May 24, 2018 2:55am | Edited 4:21am
For Jim Hurst the Underlying Trend is the sum of ALL Cycles whose Period is greater than the Cycle Observed.

As you can observe on the Chart, visible operative Cycles shows a duration (period) of 7 (Cycle AD) and 6 (Cycle DB) Time units (graphically)

Hence we can say that :

Underlying Trend is the Sum of ALL Cycles whose Period is greater than 7 Units (to simplify)

We can also note that the Measured Move CB of the Underlying Trend on Price Action = 6 Price Intervals

We also can use some Gann concept :

Measured Move between A and B is 6 Price Intervals
Time duration is 7+6 = 13 Time units

So we can say (in this configuration) that Price goes slower than Time and follows a 6 / 13 "Angle" very close from the theoretical (1 X 2 ) Angle - 1 Price Unit x 2 Time Units
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UNDERLYING TREND TIME UNITS.png Size: 165 KB
  • #1,097
  • May 24, 2018 4:15am May 24, 2018 4:15am
DAX This morning :

a) a GAP Down at the Open : - 200 points

b) then a progressive "return to the mean" - here a return to the Centered Moving Average 256 TU (in brown)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DECROCHAGE BAISSIER 200 POINTS + RETOUR MMC 256.png Size: 246 KB
  • #1,098
  • May 24, 2018 4:34am May 24, 2018 4:34am
My friend, it does not take a genius to understand that you are at the very top of this trading game, indeed your thoughts knowledge and posts are amongst the best i have read, i have to admit, its now getting far beyond me and as i have no ability to multi task, I am just going to look in and watch your thread with great interest as i think you know were i am at, right or wrong with my own style of trading, just wish i was younger and had more ability to learn, in fact thinking of sending my granddaughter to study under you if you would accept her, she his a virgin trader so no misconceptions about trading, what would the course fee cost, oh did i mention she is only 12 and learning french at school
OAPDave
  • #1,099
  • May 24, 2018 4:58am May 24, 2018 4:58am
Quoting OAPDave
My friend, it does not take a genius to understand that you are at the very top of this trading game, indeed your thoughts knowledge and posts are amongst the best i have read, i have to admit, its now getting far beyond me and as i have no ability to multi task, I am just going to look in and watch your thread with great interest as i think you know were i am at, right or wrong with my own style of trading, just wish i was younger and had more ability to learn, in fact thinking of sending my granddaughter to study under you if you would accept...
OAPDave thanks for your kind words.

But in fact it is very simple. We benefit from the previous work of great minds before us.

We just have to assemble their ideas or intuitions together and try to keep it simple and operative.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SINEWAVE DAX 24 MAI 2018.png Size: 140 KB
Attached Images
  • #1,100
  • May 24, 2018 8:39am May 24, 2018 8:39am
Hello Parisboy,

Doing my homework inspiring by your:

Clear uptrend: Price oscilliate betwenn Zone A and B

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FR40EURM5 trend up.jpg Size: 182 KB


Clear downtrend: Price oscilliate between Zone C and D

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FR40EURM5 down trend.jpg Size: 190 KB


Range market: Price oscilliate between Zone B and C

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FR40EURM5 range.jpg Size: 240 KB


Green pips
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
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