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  • #801
  • May 21, 2018 4:14am May 21, 2018 4:14am
Quoting cat
{quote} It seems from this post that this thread is less about what works across the full spectrum, and more about your prowess as a trader, which you seem very keen to advertise. Nothing wrong with that of course, especially if others can learn from you to increase their chances of becoming consistently successful traders, but I think it would have been better had you called the thread " My Fundamental Trading Always beats my Technical Trading 100% ", because obviously what works for you doesn't necessarily work for others. Happy trading!

Preach!!!!
  • #802
  • May 21, 2018 4:41am May 21, 2018 4:41am
Quoting Samson85
Bank trades for the week: MS trade of the week: sell Eur/Nzd at market (1.70), target 1.63 and 1.74 stop
Great job, broKeep this good job working and share more your experience! Don't care about others negative comments! Thanks
  • #803
  • May 21, 2018 4:47am May 21, 2018 4:47am
Quoting cat
{quote} It seems from this post that this thread is less about what works across the full spectrum, and more about your prowess as a trader, which you seem very keen to advertise. Nothing wrong with that of course, especially if others can learn from you to increase their chances of becoming consistently successful traders, but I think it would have been better had you called the thread " My Fundamental Trading Always beats my Technical Trading 100% ", because obviously what works for you doesn't necessarily work for others. Happy trading!

I think the trades on this thread by me and others struggled for you to make a case because I let my trades do the talking which is quite simple. I am not a keyboard warrior- I am Trader!!

I wish you all the best trading the DAX based on candle stick patterns etc I just hope you don't get caught out with 0 news flow when trading an equity made up of 30 companies.
  • #804
  • May 21, 2018 4:55am May 21, 2018 4:55am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I think the trades on this thread by me and others struggled for you to make a case because I let my trades do the talking which is quite simple. I am not a keyboard warrior- I am Trader!! I wish you all the best trading the DAX based on candle stick patterns etc I just hope you don't get caught out with 0 news flow when trading an equity made up of 30 companies.
You fail to see the point I am making, but it's your thread, and as I always do, I wish you and those who follow your method many green pips.
  • #805
  • Edited 8:36am May 21, 2018 8:22am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting Samson85
Morning All, The most obvious trade of the day is USD/JPY long. Reasons being: US place china tarrifs on hold Yields up again Japan trade balanced missed by a mile. I would also recommend trading AUD/JPY as AUD is a commodity based pair which thrives on good news from trade talks given their strong relationship with China. I have also gone short EUR/USD (swing trade) as I expect a hawkish fed due to Yield curve and I expect somewhat a dovish ECB Minutes. I am still short EUR/NZD but this trade maybe a bit rocky due to negative Retail sales but the...
As you can see I was upset that I closed the EUR/USD based on analysis from forexlive.com and Barclays well it turned out to be the right move as EUR/USD pretty much did a full retracement and it would have missed my original profit target. Whether the pair will rally up I am not sure until we have FOMC minutes & ECB Minutes this week.

I am currently sitting in small profit for both USD/JPY & USD/MXN although this could retrace and become stagnated for a few days as the DXY has pulled back. On the managed accounts USD/JPY is minus 1 pip in the negative.

As predicted AUD/JPY went through the roof, but I did not want to double trade JPY pairs, but whether AUD can hold its momentum remains to be seen.
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  • #806
  • May 21, 2018 8:32am May 21, 2018 8:32am
Hi Samson, Do you offer One on One coaching? Thank you.
  • #807
  • May 21, 2018 8:57am May 21, 2018 8:57am
Quoting Samson85
Morning All, The most obvious trade of the day is USD/JPY long. Reasons being: US place china tarrifs on hold Yields up again Japan trade balanced missed by a mile. I would also recommend trading AUD/JPY as AUD is a commodity based pair which thrives on good news from trade talks given their strong relationship with China. I have also gone short EUR/USD (swing trade) as I expect a hawkish fed due to Yield curve and I expect somewhat a dovish ECB Minutes. I am still short EUR/NZD but this trade maybe a bit rocky due to negative Retail sales...

Hi Samson, you had mentioned that "Japan trade balance missed by a mile". When i check FF or other websites, The Trade balance for Japan is better than expected. I am confused. Forecast value is 0.11T, Actual value is 0.55T. Am i looking at the right value / news release?

Thank you.
  • #808
  • May 21, 2018 9:05am May 21, 2018 9:05am
Quoting FundmntlTrde
{quote} Hi Samson, you had mentioned that "Japan trade balance missed by a mile". When i check FF or other websites, The Trade balance for Japan is better than expected. I am confused. Forecast value is 0.11T, Actual value is 0.55T. Am i looking at the right value / news release? Thank you.
Here you go
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  • #809
  • May 21, 2018 9:16am May 21, 2018 9:16am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Here you go {image}
Thanks a lot, Samson. Where do you look for the news releases? FF did not give Imports and Exports - just the Trade Balance that came higher than Forecast value.

There seem to be 3 releases -

1. Trade Balance - Exports - Missed by a Mile

2. Trade Balance - Imports - Missed by a Mile

3. Trade Balance - Trade Balance - Higher than Forecast.


How can we tell which of the above are to be considered?
  • #810
  • May 21, 2018 9:32am May 21, 2018 9:32am
Quoting FundmntlTrde
{quote} Thanks a lot, Samson. Where do you look for the news releases? FF did not give Imports and Exports - just the Trade Balance that came higher than Forecast value. There seem to be 3 releases - 1. Trade Balance - Exports - Missed by a Mile 2. Trade Balance - Imports - Missed by a Mile 3. Trade Balance - Trade Balance - Higher than Forecast. How can we tell which of the above are to be considered?

See this is where it gets tricky as you'e asked a very good question.

The market will always take one data point with more regards than the others. In order to know which one the market will be focused on you'll need to-do your homework.

Forexlive.com tells you the main expectations sometimes and so do ransquawk (can get a two week free trial)

My broker cmc sometimes priorities them correctly but not always.

If the data point the market is looking beats or mises expectations then this could cause a rally.

Hope This helps. In order to fully get this you'll need to do it in the practical via trial and error or pure diligence
  • #811
  • May 21, 2018 9:59am May 21, 2018 9:59am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} See this is where it gets tricky as you'e asked a very good question. The market will always take one data point with more regards than the others. In order to know which one the market will be focused on you'll need to-do your homework. Forexlive.com tells you the main expectations sometimes and so do ransquawk (can get a two week free trial) My broker cmc sometimes priorities them correctly but not always. If the data point the market is looking beats or mises expectations then this could cause a rally. Hope This helps. In order to fully...
As always, very helpful. Thank you. You are very knowledgeable and practical in your trading approach. Are you considering one-on-one mentoring?
  • #812
  • May 21, 2018 10:19am May 21, 2018 10:19am
Quoting FundmntlTrde
{quote} As always, very helpful. Thank you. You are very knowledgeable and practical in your trading approach. Are you considering one-on-one mentoring?
It's not something I would be able to do as I trade full time but I show my trades on here as it's the same as keeping a journal.

My advise would be to sign up to Jarratt davis or Samuel and co trading.

Hope This helps.
  • #813
  • May 21, 2018 10:26am May 21, 2018 10:26am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} It's not something I would be able to do as I trade full time but I show my trades on here as it's the same as keeping a journal. My advise would be to sign up to Jarratt davis or Samuel and co trading. Hope This helps.
Thanks, Samson. I am going through the webinars from Jarratt and I will check out "Samuel and co" trading as well.
  • #814
  • Edited 3:48pm May 21, 2018 3:32pm | Edited 3:48pm
Quoting Samson85
Morning All, The most obvious trade of the day is USD/JPY long. Reasons being: US place china tarrifs on hold Yields up again Japan trade balanced missed by a mile. I would also recommend trading AUD/JPY as AUD is a commodity based pair which thrives on good news from trade talks given their strong relationship with China. I have also gone short EUR/USD (swing trade) as I expect a hawkish fed due to Yield curve and I expect somewhat a dovish ECB Minutes. I am still short EUR/NZD but this trade maybe a bit rocky due to negative Retail sales but the...

My reccomending Aud/JPY turned out to be a much better trade than my USD/JPY trade even though I thought the USd had a stronger fundamental play due to yields etc. The massive error I made was that I should have gone short GBP/AUD because this fell close to 200 pips due to Aud strength.

The stratergy when trading fundamentals intraday is simple strong currency vs weak currency based on sentiment.

GBP was weak due to all negative brexit news. JPY was weak due to China tarrifs being paused.

Aud supported by easing trade talks and China tarrifs being paused. NZD is commodity based also but NZD is currently oversold accross the board.

My Eur/nzd trade is a 120 pips in profit. Usd/jpy is 10 pips negative. These are swing trades and I do expect the usd/JPY to pick up. USD/MXN is currently in the negative which is half the profit for my Nzd trade if this remains the case tomorow mid morning I will cut it.
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  • #815
  • Edited 3:00am May 22, 2018 1:23am | Edited 3:00am
Two trades today.

Eur/aud short - commodities are strong and the euro is all over the place vs other pairs showing weakness.

Gbp/cad - short- oil is strong and pound has brexit worries. Risk to this trade is that we have boe speakers but how they can be hawkish with shocking data I doubt it ( I took this trade idea from forexlive to be quite frank but I like the set up)

Update: usd/mxn closed for a loss as I said I would if no progress mid morning. This Loss only accounted for 25% of the profit from the current EUR/NZD trade.
USD/JPY closed for tiny profit as Ransqauwk indicated the DXY was falling quite choppy.

I still have the above trades open in the previous post with USD/JPY open - eur/nzd doing wonders (over 150 pips in profit).

Update: EUR/NZD closed for 150 pips. EUR/AUD closed for -9 pips. Closing was based on EUR having am immense strong bid vs all pairs and DXY collapsing.
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  • #816
  • May 22, 2018 5:36am May 22, 2018 5:36am
Took this trade via limit order and the suport levels safe beautiful.

Usd/cad long. The bias is no nafta deal but oil prices coukd kill the trade. Very tight stop loss
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  • #817
  • Edited 9:55am May 22, 2018 9:38am | Edited 9:55am
Quoting Samson85
Two trades today. Eur/aud short - commodities are strong and the euro is all over the place vs other pairs showing weakness. Gbp/cad - short- oil is strong and pound has brexit worries. Risk to this trade is that we have boe speakers but how they can be hawkish with shocking data I doubt it ( I took this trade idea from forexlive to be quite frank but I like the set up) Update: usd/mxn closed for a loss as I said I would if no progress mid morning. This Loss only accounted for 25% of the profit from the current EUR/NZD trade. USD/JPY closed for...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-21/europe-s-italy-problem-is-bigger-than-brexit

EUR is fundamentally getting weak. This news came on 21st.

Samson, Good trade on EURAUD as fundamentals are pointing to EUR weakness and AUD gets stronger due to commodities.

Do you look at a specific index / chart to tell that Commodities are going up? If so, can you please share?

I found the following - Dow Jones Commodity Index

https://www.investing.com/indices/dj-commodity



GBP is weak as well, with Brexit and rate related woes.

https://forexlive.com/centralbank/!/boes-carney-says-that-economy-did-not-evolve-in-line-with-february-forecast-20180522
  • #818
  • May 22, 2018 11:34am May 22, 2018 11:34am
Quoting FundmntlTrde
{quote} https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-21/europe-s-italy-problem-is-bigger-than-brexit EUR is fundamentally getting weak. This news came on 21st. Samson, Good trade on EURAUD as fundamentals are pointing to EUR weakness and AUD gets stronger due to commodities. Do you look at a specific index / chart to tell that Commodities are going up? If so, can you please share? I found the following - Dow Jones Commodity Index https://www.investing.com/indices/dj-commodity GBP is weak as well, with Brexit and rate related...
Hey,

I didnt profit from EUR/AUD as i closed it -9 pips although I was up like 30+ pips but but cut it becuase there was a euro rally due to the GBP speakers which the euro chose to follow.. I did in fact bank 150 pips on EUR/NZD with NZD also being commodity based

On you watch list for commodities you should have:

  1. WTI
  2. COPPER
  3. GOLD


Copper is a big influence for AUD.

DXY is what I use to judge how strong the dollar is. If the JPY/CHF is strong, and gold is strong, and equities are down that tells you that there are safe haven plays going on meaning something seen as negative is impacting the market.

  • #819
  • May 22, 2018 11:45am May 22, 2018 11:45am
Quoting Samson85
Took this trade via limit order and the suport levels safe beautiful. Usd/cad long. The bias is no nafta deal but oil prices coukd kill the trade. Very tight stop loss {image}
Update on USD/CAD which was bought on clean suport levels. The trade is now 45 pips up
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  • #820
  • May 22, 2018 12:45pm May 22, 2018 12:45pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Hey, I didnt profit from EUR/AUD as i closed it -9 pips although I was up like 30+ pips but but cut it becuase there was a euro rally due to the GBP speakers which the euro chose to follow.. I did in fact bank 150 pips on EUR/NZD with NZD also being commodity based On you watch list for commodities you should have: WTI COPPER GOLD Copper is a big influence for AUD. DXY is what I use to judge how strong the dollar is. If the JPY/CHF is strong, and gold is strong, and equities are down that tells you that there are safe haven plays...
very helpful information. Thanks, Samson.
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