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  • #781
  • May 18, 2018 10:51am May 18, 2018 10:51am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} although the JPY traditionally has been a safe haven, I think the fundamental picture will taking a bigger hold of the currency. With worsening economic and inflation targets underperforming BOJ's prediction will likely force the central bank to stay the course a little longer than expected. Though, the BOJ made it clear that they aren't going to unwind QEE anytime soon. Likely, the markets will start to believe them this time around.

I agree with this
  • #782
  • May 18, 2018 5:49pm May 18, 2018 5:49pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} For some reason I can't imagine cpi getting a massive push if it's positive due to all this nafta nonsense because the BOC cannot hike until this is out the way..
So I ended up closing the GBPJPY with +25 PIPS. I knew I should not have taken that trade but at least I did not lose.

Also decided to close WTC Oil @ 71.48 (+289 Points). It is just been back and forth between 72 & 71 for a few days. Im not liking how it looks.

Mixed results across CAD pushed the USDCAD higher but only by 90 pips. Price slammed against 1.29000 and fell back down. Same area it hit on Tuesday. It seems it was just not enough to close above the 1.29000 I wanted.

NEXT WEEK

On the News front:

I am paying attention to Quarterly Retail Sales coming out of NZD.

Wednesday GBP CPI as well as Thursdays Retail Sales should be interesting for Sterling. If we don't break this 12 day range before hand, these reports may just do the job.

Fridays US session will be a bit messy with Fed Chair Powell Speaks, Core Durable Goods & FOMC speech.

On the Chart side:

AUSUSD: Looks like it wants to go up & above 0.75000 but the Bears will not have it. Not without a fight however. If it can get a clean break/close above 0.75600 I see upside potential because next major resistance is not until 0.78000. Believe it or not, AUDUSD is on a, slight, uptrend since January 2016s low of 0.68000. Higher lows but a triple tap of the 0.80000 level. Swing trading wise I like it but the long term out look seems to be flat.

EURUSD: It took 4 and half months a 500+ pip drop but the EURUSD has made it back down to the December 2017 lows of 1.1750. So now what? Do we play the same game again for the next few months? Or does the EUR and ECB crash the currency? Will we see new lows not seen in 6 months? IMHO there is more downside potential than upside. But if I am to be really honest, I think it will just range bound for awhile possibly after profit taking retrace. Either way, swing wise its a good thing.

GBPUSD: Ahh Sterling. It really looks like its waiting for some fundamentals to decide which way to go. Tech wise its trash. A 12 day 95 pip average range with long spiked candles & Bulls & Bears tug of war. It seems to have a slight downward drift but I do not make much of that. Not sure what to do with till we get some breaks.

For the USDNZD, CAD, CHF & JPY I am taking a W&S approach. It could be awhile before something comes up tech wise so I will rely on the fundamentals for any near term opportunities.

Have a great weekend

- Ric
Be humble or get humbled
  • #783
  • May 18, 2018 9:59pm May 18, 2018 9:59pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} So I ended up closing the GBPJPY with +25 PIPS. I knew I should not have taken that trade but at least I did not lose. Also decided to close WTC Oil @ 71.48 (+289 Points). It is just been back and forth between 72 & 71 for a few days. Im not liking how it looks. Mixed results across CAD pushed the USDCAD higher but only by 90 pips. Price slammed against 1.29000 and fell back down. Same area it hit on Tuesday. It seems it was just not enough to close above the 1.29000 I wanted. NEXT WEEK On the News front: I am paying attention to Quarterly...
I don't think trading vs JPY is a bad thing, but with cable depending on data its risky, because the last employment figures came out in line and traders wanted to see more wanting it to provide overall GBP direction. With trade talks up and down it was always going to be risky as JPY is a safe haven play. USD/JPY would have been safer as USD will always rebound vs jpy (Strong dollar, yields, hiking etc) or not get bullied too far down (It going down does provide good pull backs for buying).

WTI is tricky because I did expect too see a rally on the back of the US dropping Iran.

I will be trading GBP CPI live and swinging it for about 400 pips either way it goes. Retail sales very important because they need to know Brits are spending. Contemplating what pair to trade for this risk event.

FOMC I will be glued to, but I would prefer some dovish talk which is unlikely as there are talks of another 3 additional hikes this year.

I'm likely going to swing trade NZD/CAD for the week as nafta is in turmoil it seems and CAD data was a shocker (Need oil to be balanced or weak). NZD retail sales will boost buying if good so i will trade that live on the personal account.

I agree on the W/S approach.
  • #784
  • Edited 8:20pm May 19, 2018 1:19pm | Edited 8:20pm
Hello Samson and other members,
I am trying to learn fundamental and sentiment trading... greatly appreciate your ideas and posts in this thread.

Monday - 5/21
I would like to day trade the following on NZD Retail Sales / Core Retails Sales news after the "actual" value is announced.

If the outcome is much better than expected, NZD will likely be bullish and i am looking to buy NZDCAD (Core Retail Sales for CAD was weak on Friday and NAFTA agreement is in turmoil as mentioned by Samson above) and buy NZDJPY

If the outcome is much worse than expected , NZD will likely be bearish and i am looking to SELL NZDUSD (as USD is bullish fundamentally) and sell NZDJPY.

If there is not much difference between "expected" and "actual" OR the value of "actual" matches the value of "expected", No Trade.
  • #785
  • May 19, 2018 10:49pm May 19, 2018 10:49pm
Quoting FundmntlTrde
Hello Samson and other members, I am trying to learn fundamental and sentiment trading... greatly appreciate your ideas and posts in this thread. Monday - 5/21 I would like to day trade the following on NZD Retail Sales / Core Retails Sales news after the "actual" value is announced. If the outcome is much better than expected, NZD will likely be bullish and i am looking to buy NZDCAD (Core Retail Sales for CAD was weak on Friday and NAFTA agreement is in turmoil as mentioned by Samson above) and buy NZDJPY If the outcome is much worse than expected...

I think regardless of the retail sales the NZD will still go up based on the fact that it has come down so much over the last month VS other pairs. NZD going up is more of a deep pull back.

The central bank said it could hike or cut rates which caused the NZD to tank last central bank meeting, but it was tanking prior to the central banks comments due to data not being the best.

When trading data releases you need to know whether or not the central bank is really taking that piece of data into consideration. For example the BOE say they want to see positive earnings when it comes to employment figures.

BOC say they want to see positive CPI hence why I traded the CAD CPI live in one of my above posts because I knew the market would sell immensely if it was negative especially with NAFTA unresolved. If CADcpi had been positive I dont think we would have seen much buying because the BOC cannot hike with no NAFTA deal in place although Poloz said the contrary (Lying of course).
  • #786
  • Edited 1:33pm May 20, 2018 9:25am | Edited 1:33pm
Thank you for the continued guidance, Samson. God bless you.

Can you please point me to a reliable source (website) where i can read about Central bank's stance on interest rate hikes and Central bank's expectations regarding a particular economic news release?

Basic question: The values listed under "Forecast" for various news releases in FF - For Example: The Core Retail Sales for CAD: The Forecast value was 0.5% - Does this value come from the expectation of BOC Or is this value determined by analysts / economists and has nothing to do with BOC's expectations?
  • #787
  • May 20, 2018 11:06pm May 20, 2018 11:06pm
Quoting FundmntlTrde
Thank you for the continued guidance, Samson. God bless you. Can you please point me to a reliable source (website) where i can read about Central bank's stance on interest rate hikes and Central bank's expectations regarding a particular economic news release? Basic question: The values listed under "Forecast" for various news releases in FF - For Example: The Core Retail Sales for CAD: The Forecast value was 0.5% - Does this value come from the expectation of BOC Or is this value determined by analysts / economists and has nothing to do with BOC's...
Forexlive.com is a good website
  • #788
  • Edited May 21, 2018 2:04am May 20, 2018 11:19pm | Edited May 21, 2018 2:04am
Morning All,

The most obvious trade of the day is USD/JPY long.

Reasons being:

  1. US place china tarrifs on hold
  2. Yields up again
  3. Japan trade balanced missed by a mile.

I would also recommend trading AUD/JPY as AUD is a commodity based pair which thrives on good news from trade talks given their strong relationship with China.

I have also gone short EUR/USD (swing trade) as I expect a hawkish fed due to Yield curve and I expect somewhat a dovish ECB Minutes.

I am still short EUR/NZD but this trade maybe a bit rocky due to negative Retail sales but the trade is still 50 pips in profit

I am also in a USD/MXN swing based trade as NAFTA failed to conclude and USD/MXN is going to take a big hit!!

I bought both cable and oil (Oil bought based data release) on on Friday due to both reaching technical levels. I closed out cable for a 42 point loss but I also closed out oil for a 51 point gain this morning - we had a spike due to trade talks easing.



UPDATE - A bit pissed off because I closed the EUR/USD trade on the managed accounts platform based on an article from forexlix.com telling me EUR/USD was somewhat oversold (It has reached barclays target to be fair) but Knowing the strength of the dollar I should have held and now I can see potential pips missed!!!!!!

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  • #789
  • May 20, 2018 11:21pm May 20, 2018 11:21pm
Hi Samson,

Have been trying to use fundamental in my trading. What is a good routine/way to start?

Also, could you share with me your steps when identifying and incorporating your fundamental analysis?

Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge in this forum !!
  • #790
  • May 21, 2018 12:37am May 21, 2018 12:37am
Quoting ongweichao
Hi Samson, Have been trying to use fundamental in my trading. What is a good routine/way to start? Also, could you share with me your steps when identifying and incorporating your fundamental analysis? Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge in this forum !!
Hi,

I would advise you watch the videos below and take notes, then look to apply them to your trading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80eJbVhxWlI&t=2072s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80eJbVhxWlI&t=2072s)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W0et0enfQs&t=1502s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7W0et0enfQs&t=1502s)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsQBjHK-SH4&t=1729s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsQBjHK-SH4&t=1729s)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeXNJEIhVbo&t=1873s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeXNJEIhVbo&t=1873s)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKaMiZWPrQ&t=677s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKaMiZWPrQ&t=677s)
  • #791
  • May 21, 2018 1:32am May 21, 2018 1:32am
" Fundamental Trading always beats technical trading 100% "

Which, if taken literally, means that as I line up a trade on a purely technical Dax move on my 1m tf conforming to a recognizable pattern I have seen thousands of times before, I also need to be thinking about next month's projected German car sales figures.

Utter nonsense. Fundamentals play a zero % role in my trading.
  • #792
  • May 21, 2018 1:46am May 21, 2018 1:46am
Quoting cat
" Fundamental Trading always beats technical trading 100% " Which, if taken literally, means that as I line up a trade on a purely technical Dax move on my 1m tf conforming to a recognizable pattern I have seen thousands of times before, I also need to be thinking about next month's projected German car sales figures. Utter nonsense. Fundamentals play a zero % role in my trading.

Next time Deutche bank takes a hit and you decide to go long on the DAX I am sure you will wish you paid attention to the fundamentals!!!
  • #793
  • May 21, 2018 2:09am May 21, 2018 2:09am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Next time Deutche bank takes a hit and you decide to go long on the DAX I am sure you will wish you paid attention to the fundamentals!!!
But if I spent my day worrying about whether Deutche Bank was about to take a hit or not, I would never place a trade at all.

I repeat. Fundamentals play a 0% role in my trading. That doesn't mean that I place trades regardless of what is happening ( I don't trade into big data releases etc ) but it does mean that I trade purely on what I see on my charts, regardless of anything else. The bigger the time frame one trades off, and the longer one holds trades, the more fundamentals play a role. For me, I am in and out of trades all day, so my trading is purely, 100% technical, which is why I am taking issue with the title of this thread, because it is wrong, and inaccurate to say that ' Fundi trading ALWAYS beats techi trading 100% '.
  • #794
  • May 21, 2018 2:13am May 21, 2018 2:13am
Quoting cat
{quote} But if I spent my day worrying about whether Deutche Bank was about to take a hit or not, I would never place a trade at all. I repeat. Fundamentals play a 0% role in my trading. That doesn't mean that I place trades regardless of what is happening ( I don't trade into big data releases etc ) but it does mean that I trade purely on what I see on my charts, regardless of anything else. The bigger the time frame one trades off, and the longer one holds trades, the more fundamentals play a role. For me, I am in and out of trades all day, so...
Fundamentals always beat technical because at the end of the day its the big banks moving the market making trades based on fundamental analysis.

You saying you don't trade into data releases shows that you are aware that fundamental data could blow your account.

I am sure if you heard that Deutche was going to merge with lets say JP morgan I am sure you would be buying the dax for days to come

TBF i think when trading the dax risk management is probably the most important thing .
  • #795
  • May 21, 2018 2:22am May 21, 2018 2:22am
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  • #796
  • May 21, 2018 2:30am May 21, 2018 2:30am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Fundamentals always beat technical because at the end of the day its the big banks moving the market making trades based on fundamental analysis. You saying you don't trade into data releases shows that you are aware that fundamental data could blow your account. I am sure if you heard that Deutche was going to merge with lets say JP morgan I am sure you would be buying the dax for days to come TBF i think when trading the dax risk management is probably the most important thing .
Based on what you are saying, it is impossible for any retail trader to trade the markets because the Big Banks can move them hundreds of points at any time, without warning, and without any sign on the charts that this is about to happen. Such a statement proves that you know little of how price action IS a reflection of what is happening fundamentally, but on a macro level. On a micro level, as in intra-day, the overall majority of market moves are technical moves driven by the biggest market players, which is why they can be anticipated and traded by the likes of us.

Blowing ones account? What are you waiting for - a sudden total collapse of the Eurozone? Almost all of the big, sudden moves come with data releases, though admittedly they do happen when something unexpectedly hits the markets, like a Trump tweet for example, which means that yes, risk management is always important, so set your stop losses and apply good risk management to your trading. If you are worried about suddenly having your account wiped out by some unforeseen event, then trading is not for you.
  • #797
  • May 21, 2018 2:45am May 21, 2018 2:45am
Quoting cat
{quote} Based on what you are saying, it is impossible for any retail trader to trade the markets because the Big Banks can move them hundreds of points at any time, without warning, and without any sign on the charts that this is about to happen. Such a statement proves that you know little of how price action IS a reflection of what is happening fundamentally, but on a macro level. On a micro level, as in intra-day, the overall majority of market moves are technical moves driven by the biggest market players, which is why they can be anticipated...
Well considering I pay for Ransqauwk which delivers market breaking news (Morning analysis as well which loads of prop firms use them for) the same time the banks get it shows that I am not a regular retail trader as I invest in sources which enhances my profit. I also manage a client account of $50k (small for now but results will lead ti $1mill soon) but my results do the talking. Look at Fridays trades on this thread for example

My fundamental trade examples on this thread (Which are shown from the start in real time - this mornings trades for example all in profit!!) helps prove that fundamentals work. All you need to do is look at my USD/JPY trade this morning and the reasons for it and you'll see that European traders started buying as soon as they saw US had paused the tariffs on china. I have so many real life trade examples on this thread so its very difficult for you to challenge to me.
  • #798
  • May 21, 2018 3:15am May 21, 2018 3:15am
Quoting earlroy63
I love fundamentals, I use them to give me VOLATILTY, to prove that my Technicals trades will bring me many pips. I ALWAYS ENTER BEFORE THE NEWS RELEASE. I have two examples CAD -Red News Friday 18th May and Red news NZD Sunday 20th May 2018. {image} {image} {image} {image} Just my experience, I use Technicals to Predict the Fundamentals.

Good examples of trades and knowing how to predict the data before the release. I normally only go in before the release unless the numbers just look so unrealistic.

Lining up technicals with the fundamentals and succeeding from it is an art
  • #799
  • Edited 8:29am May 21, 2018 3:32am | Edited 8:29am
Bank trades for the week:

MS trade of the week: sell Eur/Nzd at market (1.70), target 1.63 and 1.74 stop


Citi trade recommendation - buy Usd/Cad at 1.2860, target 1.3115 and 1.2750 stop

MS recommends short Eur/Sgd at market (1.5800), target 1.5600 and 1.5950 stop
  • #800
  • May 21, 2018 4:01am May 21, 2018 4:01am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I pay for Ransqauwk... I am not a regular retail trader as I invest in sources which enhances my profit. I also manage a client account of $50k (small for now but results will lead ti $1mill soon) but my results do the talking.... My fundamental trade examples on this thread (Which are shown from the start in real time - this mornings trades for example all in profit!!) helps prove that fundamentals work. All you need to do is look at my..... I have so many real life...
It seems from this post that this thread is less about what works across the full spectrum, and more about your prowess as a trader, which you seem very keen to advertise.

Nothing wrong with that of course, especially if others can learn from you to increase their chances of becoming consistently successful traders, but I think it would have been better had you called the thread " My Fundamental Trading Always beats my Technical Trading 100% ", because obviously what works for you doesn't necessarily work for others.

Happy trading!
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