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CCFp weekly signals (set and forget basket trading)

  • #13,341
  • May 20, 2018 11:40am May 20, 2018 11:40am
Following are my main conclusions from the testing:

1. The baskets almost always had a big drawdown at the start of the week, especially on Mondays. I do not have the specific numbers but is just based on my observations. I wish I had been able to document the profit/loss every hour from the time the basket opened.

2. The first few weeks I opened the baskets without setting a Stop Loss. I wanted to get an idea on what maximum drawdown I could expect. After 10 weeks I decided to use 2000 pips as a Stop Loss based on the lowest drawdown of -1872 pips in Week 1.

3. No matter how low the drawdown, the baskets almost always recovered a significant amount of pips. This is where I began to develop the idea of opening a second basket after a significant drawdown.
  • #13,342
  • May 20, 2018 11:46am May 20, 2018 11:46am
Quoting yohec
RESULTS FROM 2017 I would like to show my results during testing of this basket trading. The results will give an idea how I developed my current trading system. Here is a table showing the results for the last 5 months of 2017. {image} Note that I have blacked out the result from week 16 which resulted in a big loser. That one is a special case which I will discuss in detail later. The total pips I show of 2595 do not include the losses from week 16. I had a total of 16 winners and 6 losers during that period in 2017. The column “Min (pips)” shows...
You should try to figure out what the average Min Pips is and what your average Downdraw was (hopefully you were using the same lot size through out so you get consistent data) This way you can decide what the appropriate/best SL % and TP% should be according to your testing/results.

You don't want to run this strategy and have your acct go into -20% DD in one week. At the start of the thread Xmess7 stresses to try and keep a 7-10% SL and a 5% TP for the week. Once either of those two are reached, you would be done for the week.
  • #13,343
  • May 20, 2018 12:08pm May 20, 2018 12:08pm
Now we look at what happened in Week 16. This new table shows the results for the year including Week 16:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CCFp_2017b.JPG Size: 84 KB


When I opened that basket I had the Stop Loss set at -2000 pips, which it reached on Friday. This is the one and only time that a basket did not recover after a big drawdown. So including the 18 weeks I have opened baskets during 2018, that means that only 1 out of 40 weeks (2.5%) has a basket gone against me and did not at least have partial recovery. It does not mean that it won’t happen again. It tells me that the probability of happening again is very low
  • #13,344
  • May 20, 2018 12:09pm May 20, 2018 12:09pm
I analyzed the major economic news events for that particular week:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EcoCalNov2017.JPG Size: 105 KB


Notice the high number of major news in 5 different currencies. My only explanation is that it was a “perfect storm” of economic news against my positions. Since one can’t predict accurately a major news announcement, I would expect that over time a roughly equal number of times the news will be favorable to the basket as unfavorable. So if bad news on the JPY works against me, then maybe good news on the EUR will cancel that out, good news on GBP vs. good news on AUD, etc.

So I really don’t concern myself with major economic news. The only one I do watch is the USA Non-Farm Payrolls the first Friday of the month. But I almost always close my baskets before Friday.
  • #13,345
  • May 20, 2018 6:40pm May 20, 2018 6:40pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} You should try to figure out what the average Min Pips is and what your average Downdraw was (hopefully you were using the same lot size through out so you get consistent data) This way you can decide what the appropriate/best SL % and TP% should be according to your testing/results. You don't want to run this strategy and have your acct go into -20% DD in one week. At the start of the thread Xmess7 stresses to try and keep a 7-10% SL and a 5% TP for the week. Once either of those two are reached, you would be done for the week.
I let the strategy and the results from testing tell me what is the minimum number of pips I need as a SL to allow my strategy to work. Once I know my risk in pips, then I make sure that my position size and account balance are adequate in case the SL gets hit.

From what I have seen so far, I am very confident that the indicator is making the correct trade suggestions. I just need to make sure that the SL is not too tight and stop out my basket before it gets a chance to move in the right direction.
  • #13,346
  • May 20, 2018 6:43pm May 20, 2018 6:43pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} I let the strategy and the results from testing tell me what is the minimum number of pips I need as a SL to allow my strategy to work. Once I know my risk in pips, then I make sure that my position size and account balance are adequate in case the SL gets hit. From what I have seen so far, I am very confident that the indicator is making the correct trade suggestions. I just need to make sure that the SL is not too tight and stop out my basket before it gets a chance to move in the right direction.
Thats what I meant. What are you using in pips to determine your risk%? Nice job yohec! You're doing a great job with your forward testing.
  • #13,347
  • May 21, 2018 6:19am May 21, 2018 6:19am
Quoting yohec
{quote} I let the strategy and the results from testing tell me what is the minimum number of pips I need as a SL to allow my strategy to work. Once I know my risk in pips, then I make sure that my position size and account balance are adequate in case the SL gets hit. From what I have seen so far, I am very confident that the indicator is making the correct trade suggestions. I just need to make sure that the SL is not too tight and stop out my basket before it gets a chance to move in the right direction.
Hi yohec,

Really Great job. Well done and Keep it up

Bendz
  • #13,348
  • May 21, 2018 7:37am May 21, 2018 7:37am
Hello,
I tried to install and can't open the indicators file. have everything in the correct path but I can't see the indicator on MT5. I can't find MT4. it seems it is outdated.
Also, when open the template. it does not look like what I have seen on the thread.

I have search and forum and the net but can't see a proper solution.
Anyone can help?

Regards
M
  • #13,349
  • May 21, 2018 10:02am May 21, 2018 10:02am
Weekly target achieved today.

+17% for the month so far live account.

Now its SOH until next Monday!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-05-21 at 11.44.16.png Size: 117 KB
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #13,350
  • May 21, 2018 2:03pm May 21, 2018 2:03pm
I think best way to trade it is daily. I am trading demo since last week. Open trades at 7-8pmEST Sunday with target of 20pips tp and no SL. Then once that basket is closed I open another one for 4-5am EST set for 30pips. Once that basket is closed I open another for 10-11am and close it for 20 or 30 by looking at market volatility. That way I am netting more than 300 pips a week. So far for a week test I have not had a loss. I am using v37.7.7(1). None other setting changed all standard, no SL.

https://i.gyazo.com/675b6e4684a37bdc...13bea38d0e.png

Dont have trade history to post because I have been testing different systems and different setting for this system as well so trade report is all mixed up.

I am planning to test only this system for this week and will post daily results.
Game taught me the game. And it didnt spare me the rod while teaching
  • #13,351
  • May 21, 2018 3:38pm May 21, 2018 3:38pm
Quoting ssnijj4r
I think best way to trade it is daily. I am trading demo since last week. Open trades at 7-8pmEST Sunday with target of 20pips tp and no SL. Then once that basket is closed I open another one for 4-5am EST set for 30pips. Once that basket is closed I open another for 10-11am and close it for 20 or 30 by looking at market volatility. That way I am netting more than 300 pips a week. So far for a week test I have not had a loss. I am using v37.7.7(1). None other setting changed all standard, no SL. {image} Dont have trade history to post because I...
so if I understand this correctly, you open one basket on sunday tokyo open then on london open and ny open? And from tue-fri only LO and NY?

I used a timezone converter hope Im correct.
Anything above the line is an uptrend, below the line is a downtrend.
  • #13,352
  • May 21, 2018 4:33pm May 21, 2018 4:33pm
Quoting Degolep
{quote}so if I understand this correctly, you open one basket on sunday tokyo open then on london open and ny open? And from tue-fri only LO and NY? I used a timezone converter hope Im correct.
No,I start on Sunday and then everyday there are 3 baskets last being Friday 10am EST.

I will be testing this for one more week. I have decided to keep the TP at 30 pip for all the sessions. Doing this I should net 450 pips a week. Lets hope for the best.

Regards
Game taught me the game. And it didnt spare me the rod while teaching
  • #13,353
  • Edited 2:14am May 22, 2018 12:36am | Edited 2:14am
Ok. But I'm correct london open, ny open, tokyo open?

30 pips reached in 10min
Attached Image
Anything above the line is an uptrend, below the line is a downtrend.
  • #13,354
  • May 22, 2018 5:09am May 22, 2018 5:09am
I like the idea, ssnijj4, but anytime someone says 'no stop loss' my internal alarms go off.

You must surely have some amount of risk management in place?
  • #13,355
  • Edited 8:07am May 22, 2018 7:54am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting Degolep
Ok. But I'm correct london open, ny open, tokyo open? 30 pips reached in 10min {image}

Not exact London,tokyo or ny open. in GMT times its 00:00 , 08:00 and 14:00.

Last night the tokyo basket had 30 pips TP set but didnt achieve it, price went to 29 pips and reversed so I closed the basket manually. I think we should not be greedy and stick for 20 pips each session and test.

Also, can someone give me ccfp indicator which reads 1 hour or 4 hour chart. I know the current ccfp diff have the settings to configure any timeframe but it doesnt give many signals on 1 hour infact not even 1. Instead of trading daily or weekly basket I want to try something with hour or 4 hour.


Thanks

EDIT: Also, I would like to know if there is a setting or a version which can tell us how many pips the basket went positive and negative in. Like lets say I have set 30 pips TP and basket went 25 pips and then reversed and went negative I would like to know that it went 25 pips in profit before it went against me.
Game taught me the game. And it didnt spare me the rod while teaching
  • #13,356
  • May 22, 2018 11:24am May 22, 2018 11:24am
Opened 1 Real and 1 Virtual Basket at 14:10 GMT per strategy. The VB is set to trigger at -500 pips.

Attached Image


We'll see how this plays out.
  • #13,357
  • May 22, 2018 2:33pm May 22, 2018 2:33pm
I opened NY open also and it was a disaster.
Anything above the line is an uptrend, below the line is a downtrend.
  • #13,358
  • May 22, 2018 2:40pm May 22, 2018 2:40pm
Quoting Degolep
I opened NY open also and it was a disaster.
What happened? Want to share some details?
  • #13,359
  • May 22, 2018 2:43pm May 22, 2018 2:43pm
Quoting Degolep
I opened NY open also and it was a disaster.
Oh boy I need to check my NY basket once I get home.

I think when we trade daily basket then we need to trade it of hourly or 4 hourly ccfp signals not daily. the current indicator we ccfp diff it does not produce many(actually none) signals for hourly or 4 hourly. Maybe someone can tweak the indicator and maybe we can try that on daily basket.
Game taught me the game. And it didnt spare me the rod while teaching
  • #13,360
  • May 22, 2018 3:35pm May 22, 2018 3:35pm
Quoting yohec
{quote} What happened? Want to share some details?
It went to -100+ pips in under 30min. Thats too big drawdown.
Anything above the line is an uptrend, below the line is a downtrend.
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