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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #76,561
  • May 17, 2018 3:55am May 17, 2018 3:55am
Daily high of 110.74 hit. I'd assume a lot of profits being taken here.

I'm now out. If sentiment is super strong, I see it pushing right through to 111.00 without taking a breath.

Ideally, I'd re-enter on price action in the mid to low 111.50s.
  • #76,562
  • May 17, 2018 5:42am May 17, 2018 5:42am
ready to load up on longs but have to be cautious today since the NAFTA deal announcement is due soon and bad news will likely hurt USD

best to stay out of the market until next week once the picture becomes more clear
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,563
  • May 17, 2018 6:05am May 17, 2018 6:05am
Agree to stay long. H1, H4 is on support.
My coverings targeted to the 111.1
I hope the price will not exceed it a much.
Forcemeat can not be unrolled back...
  • #76,564
  • May 17, 2018 6:26am May 17, 2018 6:26am
Not very likely any major new NAFTA deal announcement today - other than something like .... we are getting closer to finalizing it. But time seems to have run out of Congress passing anything still this year. Best to consider it a non-factor IMO.
  • #76,565
  • May 17, 2018 6:34am May 17, 2018 6:34am
Quoting SunTrader
Not very likely any major new NAFTA deal announcement today - other than something like .... we are getting closer to finalizing it. But time seems to have run out of Congress passing anything still this year. Best to consider it a non-factor IMO.
I agree.
  • #76,566
  • May 17, 2018 8:26am May 17, 2018 8:26am
http://business.financialpost.com/ne...e-it-this-year

that will likely affect stocks and USD/JPY if the market panics
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,567
  • May 17, 2018 8:29am May 17, 2018 8:29am
USD/JPY continues to advance and is marking fresh monthly high. The price is developing above its firmly bullish moving averages and I expect a test of 111.00 handle.
  • #76,568
  • May 17, 2018 8:33am May 17, 2018 8:33am
Quoting MrPresident
http://business.financialpost.com/ne...e-it-this-year that will likely affect stocks and USD/JPY if the market panics
I'm not sure it will. I don't think there's been any real expectation that they'd sort NAFTA out this year. It's just a bit of can kicking and, until they sort it out, I assume they'll stay with what they've got.

I'd consider it a non-event, personally. The only way I see it significantly affecting UJ is if a deal is announced (very unlikely) that is even worse for the US (next to impossible, with Trump in charge).

I'd expect to see 111+ before anything below 110.35.

My thoughts.
  • #76,569
  • May 17, 2018 8:53am May 17, 2018 8:53am
Rising interest rates, rising oil prices and with it gasoline prices (plus inflation overall) rising value of the dollar, rising budget and trade deficit but still puny wage growth - the economy should be in "great" shape soon enough.
  • #76,570
  • May 17, 2018 9:21am May 17, 2018 9:21am
111.03/110.91 now in sight. The 315pips from 109.214 still playing out neatly.
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.
  • #76,571
  • May 17, 2018 11:58am May 17, 2018 11:58am
Quoting catroot
Agree to stay long. H1, H4 is on support. My coverings targeted to the 111.1 I hope the price will not exceed it a much.
For what it's worth, I like your level. I'm thinking of going short at 112 or so with a quarter of my usual order or so. Weekly chart attached:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 30 KB
  • #76,572
  • May 17, 2018 12:21pm May 17, 2018 12:21pm
Cannot understand where all this USD strength is coming from... economy is an absolute mess
  • #76,573
  • May 17, 2018 1:00pm May 17, 2018 1:00pm
Quoting Seshwaan
Cannot understand where all this USD strength is coming from... economy is an absolute mess
Safety haven. It isn't so much a reflection of the US economy as much as a reflection of everything looks shaking so run to the biggest world reserve currency and baton down the hatches.
  • #76,574
  • May 17, 2018 1:29pm May 17, 2018 1:29pm
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} Safety haven. It isn't so much a reflection of the US economy as much as a reflection of everything looks shaking so run to the biggest world reserve currency and baton down the hatches.
Absolutely, that and Japan's economy hasn't been/isn't going anywhere fast.

Also, the interest rate differential is such that it makes being long Yen very unattractive from a swap perspective. The bigger the gap in interest rates get, the more the dollar becomes the carry currency of choice, which gives it even more strength.

Just one theory.
  • #76,575
  • May 17, 2018 1:44pm May 17, 2018 1:44pm
Quoting Seshwaan
Cannot understand where all this USD strength is coming from... economy is an absolute mess
Short from 110 30
Can't go much higher above the 100 WEEKLY average, it's above the average for the last 2 YEARS.

The Euro also continues to regain 1 18 and the Pound 1.35. A warning sign for USD.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #76,576
  • May 17, 2018 5:33pm May 17, 2018 5:33pm
I'm thinking it's tired, may have to go back to 110.13 first.
  • #76,577
  • May 17, 2018 6:38pm May 17, 2018 6:38pm
The Fed controls the world economy - along with our military might. Until that is no longer the case funds will continue flowing to the U.S. Dollar. Even if it doesn't really economically deserve it.
  • #76,578
  • May 17, 2018 7:53pm May 17, 2018 7:53pm
Honestly I don't buy the Reserve Currency argument for the US Dollar. The Euro or hard assets seem a much likelier choice. Considering Golds downtrend it's fair to say it has nothing to do with 'protection.' There's really nothing to worry about currently, War fears are abating.

Carry trade, perception, Investment in the US and just pure market action drives it higher. Remember it's not just speculators in the market, the majority is the humming of global trade.

If you're bearish the current action is great. Higher price to sell, who could ask for more?
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #76,579
  • May 17, 2018 8:30pm May 17, 2018 8:30pm
im banking on a strong rejection at 111 but got a tight SL so lets see what she does. I enjoyed the ride up from 110.565 so that was nice.
  • #76,580
  • May 17, 2018 8:49pm May 17, 2018 8:49pm
Quoting Seshwaan
Cannot understand where all this USD strength is coming from... economy is an absolute mess
Yes, bear is coming brotha
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