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(binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont

  • #281
  • May 13, 2018 8:09am May 13, 2018 8:09am
Where is osjoe? This is part of starting a thread. You have to be around to kick these trolls out of the thread in order to keep the thread "on point" and "enjoyable" I really like Neil and think he's being very generous by offering help to those of us who genuinely want it. Then you have idiots like this who think they have to argue every point and show everyone how smart they are. I'm losing interest in the thread myself because of people like this. If it weren't for Neil I would have left already. Thanks Neil for your help. I hope to continue to receive help from you and learn how to trade this contrarian method. As for stimpy, do us all a favor and just leave. Go to someone else's thread and complain to them. No one wants you here.
  • #282
  • May 13, 2018 8:14am May 13, 2018 8:14am
Quoting neilgroom
Stimpy unsubscribed from you.... Oh bless... Think I'll have an afternoon Brandy to celebrate then go walk round Loch Lomond. It isnt rocket science you fool.... The total funds of myfxbook real accounts amounts to $1,509,896,681 Over One and a half Billion Dollars They have been buying the CHF since Mid February 2018 74% still have CHF buys To newcomers. That charts means the CHF is really weak {image} {image}
My goodness that sounds nice. Wish I could join you as Brandy/Cognac is my favourite tipple too! Such a lovely part of the world, especially in Summer.

Look I don't want to appear as a know-all in any way. What this thread has taught me is how little I do know about the various players/investors in the forex market! According to COT, there are the "dealer intermediaries", "asset manager/institutional" - are they the banks? Then there is "leveraged funds" and of course us small fry. But what relationship the bigger players actually have to each other and who's gunning for who is now something that I'm really hazy about. Also are the "dealer intermediaries" all the forex brokers?

If someone can enlighten me on the above I'd be grateful!
  • #283
  • May 13, 2018 8:29am May 13, 2018 8:29am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} My goodness that sounds nice. Wish I could join you as Brandy/Cognac is my favourite tipple too! Such a lovely part of the world, especially in Summer. Look I don't want to appear as a know-all in any way. What this thread has taught me is how little I do know about the various players/investors in the forex market! According to COT, there are the "dealer intermediaries", "asset manager/institutional" - are they the banks? Then there is "leveraged funds" and of course us small fry. But what relationship the bigger players actually have to...
It's beautiful.. Never seen so much beauty.

Re: Also are the "dealer intermediaries" all the forex brokers? In a way yes. Thats why so many went bust with the CHF so many years ago.

If you use a rubbish broker when you buy say the USD/CHF they sell it. That's my theory anyway LOL

I'll try and answer when I get home, if I ever leave though. Not very good at the COT stuff.

Bojack PM OSjoe and he will block him.. Tell him I told you so cause I need a few Brandys and explore some beautiful land called Scotland with the family.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #284
  • May 13, 2018 9:51am May 13, 2018 9:51am
Quoting stimpy
{quote} You could all be from ScorpionFX for all we know - the whole Angela1985 and jayrai could be one big funnel upto here - who knows. Relying on ScorpionFX has absolutely nothing to do with learning to 'trade' This thread rightly belongs down in the commercial thread - hopefully someone will create a decent sentiment/contrarian & strength thread.

You obviously haven't even read most if the thread, typical.

Turns out no one here likes you, I can see why. Did your boyfriend Erebus put you up to this? It's time for you to go away now troll.

edit: I see erebus still lurks around here liking the troll's posts. It's really a funny thing, if they spent HALF the time that they do on this forum talking bullshit and use that time to focus on their trading they probably wouldn't be such toxic people and maybe make a dollar or two
  • #285
  • May 13, 2018 10:02am May 13, 2018 10:02am
Quoting neilgroom
{quote} It's beautiful.. Never seen so much beauty. Re: Also are the "dealer intermediaries" all the forex brokers? In a way yes. Thats why so many went bust with the CHF so many years ago. If you use a rubbish broker when you buy say the USD/CHF they sell it. That's my theory anyway LOL I'll try and answer when I get home, if I ever leave though. Not very good at the COT stuff. Bojack PM OSjoe and he will block him.. Tell him I told you so cause I need a few Brandys and explore some beautiful land called Scotland with the family.
You lucky devil! Thanks so much. Looking forward to your further explanation. Yes I wondered about that regarding the "dealer intermediaries". While the DI's are overwhelmingly long on AUD, the instititions are overwhelmingly short! Although that info is almost a week old I doubt if it's changed significantly. Of course it's not the dealers themselves who are long, but rather it's their clients right?

So in my view, the smart money is short AUDUSD whereas the dumb money is long. Hope I'm making sense!
  • #286
  • May 13, 2018 11:03am May 13, 2018 11:03am
Quoting bojack34
My contrarian trades this week according to ScorpianFX and Myfxbook will be: BUY USD/CHF.........90% short on Myfxbook with 13,265 Volume SELL NZD/USD.......83% long on Myfxbook with 4706 Volume (doesn't exactly meet the 5000 volume qualification but it's close....we'll see how it goes) SELL GBP/USD.......73% long on Myfxbook with 6904 Volume I am going to trade these 3 in two different ways...... 1st way is blindly entering all 3 trades as soon as the market opens on Monday with my full lot size (2% risk per trade) 2nd way is to enter all 3 trades...
I will follow with the same steps. Good luck
  • #287
  • May 13, 2018 12:53pm May 13, 2018 12:53pm
Quoting jmtini
{quote} You lucky devil! Thanks so much. Looking forward to your further explanation. Yes I wondered about that regarding the "dealer intermediaries". While the DI's are overwhelmingly long on AUD, the instititions are overwhelmingly short! Although that info is almost a week old I doubt if it's changed significantly. Of course it's not the dealers themselves who are long, but rather it's their clients right? So in my view, the smart money is short AUDUSD whereas the dumb money is long. Hope I'm making sense!
It could be very good trade this week. Might have to edit this one a few times as i'm on my tablet. No trades for me this week until I can get to my computer. See what the RSI 2 does.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDchartRSI.png Size: 105 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #288
  • Edited 1:54pm May 13, 2018 1:41pm | Edited 1:54pm
Hi,

This indicator calculates the currency strength for you.

First 2 rows display the values [xx] bars back.
Last 2 rows display the values [0] for the actual bar.
Default TF = H4 and sma period = 200.

Ranking is done based on values of first row.
In the calculation of USD values the USDSEK pair is used, so check if available at your broker and symbol list.
Take care you have enough history bars.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 9 KB


BR

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 iAA_DB_Currency_Strength_V1.01.ex4   44 KB | 946 downloads
It is not important how often you fall down, but how often you get up again
  • #289
  • May 13, 2018 2:00pm May 13, 2018 2:00pm
Quoting bojack34
My contrarian trades this week according to ScorpianFX and Myfxbook will be: BUY USD/CHF.........90% short on Myfxbook with 13,265 Volume {image} SELL NZD/USD.......83% long on Myfxbook with 4706 Volume (doesn't exactly meet the 5000 volume qualification but it's close....we'll see how it goes) {image} SELL GBP/USD.......73% long on Myfxbook with 6904 Volume {image} I am going to trade these 3 in three different ways...... 1st way is blindly entering all 3 trades as soon as the market opens on Monday with my full lot size (2% risk per trade) 2nd...
Neil, is the 3rd way i'm trading these pairs this week correct?
  • #290
  • Edited 3:21pm May 13, 2018 3:01pm | Edited 3:21pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Neil, is the 3rd way i'm trading these pairs this week correct?
Yes perfect. Confused me a bit cause you have USDCHF sell but I know your drunk LOL.. Im finding it hard to do charts on my tablet. Jeez miss my computer but I'm not leaving this place in a hurry. Your in good hands with those trades. Watch the RSI 2 though. Sentiment might change for a while until the USD comes back. These dates are when retail where doing the opposite.

Edit - I'll edit if I uploaded something wrong. Where these your trades this week?
People might start believing now I have uploaded these charts. Complete opposite of what retail where doing and that's just three trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWEEKLY.png Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDWEEKLY.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFWEEKLY.png Size: 36 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #291
  • Edited 5:25pm May 13, 2018 4:47pm | Edited 5:25pm
Quoting neilgroom
{quote} Yes perfect. Confused me a bit cause you have USDCHF sell but I know your drunk LOL.. Im finding it hard to do charts on my tablet. Jeez miss my computer but I'm not leaving this place in a hurry. Your in good hands with those trades. Watch the RSI 2 though. Sentiment might change for a while until the USD comes back. These dates are when retail where doing the opposite. Edit - I'll edit if I uploaded something wrong. Where these your trades this week? People might start believing now I have uploaded...
I think you're the one who is drunk...hahah. I had USDCHF as a BUY and NZD/USD and GBP/USD as both SELL. I forgive you though since you are on vacation. Have another Brandy on me! LOL.........and yes those are the 3 trades that I came up with for this week. I just got home so I was not able to open all 3 right at the market open. Today is Mother's Day here in the states. I better spend some time with the wife and mother in law or I will be in trouble...lol. Green Pips everyone!!
  • #292
  • May 13, 2018 6:50pm May 13, 2018 6:50pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} I think you're the one who is drunk...hahah. I had USDCHF as a BUY and NZD/USD and GBP/USD as both SELL. I forgive you though since you are on vacation. Have another Brandy on me! LOL.........and yes those are the 3 trades that I came up with for this week. I just got home so I was not able to open all 3 right at the market open. Today is Mother's Day here in the states. I better spend some time with the wife and mother in law or I will be in trouble...lol. Green Pips everyone!!
lmao I don't drink.. Right need some sleep. I'd wait until the RSI 2 moves above 70.. This is a line break 1 chart. Not a normal candle chart.

If the USD/MXN is dropping like it is then the USD is very weak at the minute. Best to wait. Although it's the Asian session. See how it reacts at London Open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #293
  • May 14, 2018 1:53am May 14, 2018 1:53am
i can smile now. hopefully the direction is in our favour.

tq neil
  • #294
  • May 14, 2018 2:48am May 14, 2018 2:48am
Let me post this EURUSD Technical Analysis from dailyfx.com. Kindly note that this is not a trade recommendation. The only reason I'm posting this is to to highlight the underlined section.
---
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: More Bounce Before More Selling?

Last week’s net result was relatively even for EUR/USD, even posting a small reversal candle on the weekly time-frame, but nothing super convincing. Nevertheless, the euro (https://www.dailyfx.com/eur) could continue to recovery after the big slide its recently experienced.

However, the bounce, given the break of the April trend-line, and more importantly the 2017 high, appears at risk of stalling sooner rather than later and leading to another leg lower. Just ahead is the 200-day MA, but without any price levels in confluence we’ll have to wait and see how a touch of the MA will play out.

A rally up to the broken 2017 high and turn down would hold more appeal for refreshing short positions, as not only is this old support considered a new level of resistance, but the move off of last week’s low will have been sufficient enough to work off oversold conditions.

Retail traders have demonstrated interesting behavior in EUR/USD as seen via IGCS Client Sentiment (http://bit.ly/2BURlqV). On such a large move lower, one would have expected traders to take the other side of the decline more aggressively, but at only 1.25 traders long for every 1 short, we aren’t seeing the same kind of shift you would expect. For example, we saw the ratio in GBP/USD (https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd) swell to 2.5:1 during its recent slide.

Following a bounce in the euro, keep an eye whether this behavior changes on another move lower. If we see an aggressive adding of long exposure in sudden-fashion, from a crowd contrarian standpoint, it could add weight to the notion we will see another leg lower to support in the low-11700s down to 11554.
---
This goes to show that other quality traders are using the same retail contrarian concept in implementing their trading strategies. Thanks Neil and Osjoe for bringing this up.
---
BTW, I'm holding off on shorting any xxxusd pairs until they move a bit higher into key zones that I feel will interest institutional traders.
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #295
  • May 14, 2018 2:59am May 14, 2018 2:59am
Quoting bojack34
{quote}I had USDCHF as a BUY and NZD/USD and GBP/USD as both SELL. I forgive you though since you are on vacation. Have another Brandy on me! LOL.........and yes those are the 3 trades that I came up with for this week. I just got home so I was not able to open all 3 right at the market open.
I do think that the USD is in a bit of a correction phase. But yeah, the longterm strategy is to continue buying USD. As of today, RSI-2 on GBPUSD has crossed over 70 on H4 charr while RSI-2 on USDCHF has crossed below 30 on H4 as well.
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #296
  • Edited 4:05am May 14, 2018 3:52am | Edited 4:05am
The Dollar index.. The weekly RSI-2 is at 70.33 and dropping, with the daily on 9.2. Could be a nice correction that will work in our favour (favor if you're American :-)) over the long term. Retail will start selling big and the big guns will pounce and drive the price higher. Ok, it’s only Monday but here is a little prediction of the USD index for this week and next.

Buy when the RSI-2 goes in our favour. It’s the big guys mind games again.

No liquidity and they won’t pay slippage. So they drive the price down. Retail will then sell. Got to think like them and not a retail trader.

If I don’t make sense it's because it’s early and had too many Brandys last night. Need a long walk and fresh air ;-)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDPrediction.png Size: 338 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFlinebreakchart.png Size: 474 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #297
  • May 14, 2018 4:06am May 14, 2018 4:06am
I love the work that impenia has done and with inspiration from him. I did up the excel and also do it as a chart form to show the relationship that he is talking about.

How as price moved higher, the retail(dumb money) went net short over the last week.

I am loving this tread and will stay tune.

Thanks Neil for the good work and hope i can contribute something to this tread.
Attached Image
  • #298
  • May 14, 2018 7:17am May 14, 2018 7:17am
Quoting neilgroom
The Dollar index.. The weekly RSI-2 is at 70.33 and dropping, with the daily on 9.2. Could be a nice correction that will work in our favour (favor if you're American :-)) over the long term. Retail will start selling big and the big guns will pounce and drive the price higher. Ok, it’s only Monday but here is a little prediction of the USD index for this week and next. Buy when the RSI-2 goes in our favour. It’s the big guys mind games again. No liquidity and they won’t pay slippage. So they drive the price down. Retail will then sell. Got to think...
In your pictures your RSI is showing 2, Close? I thought I was supposed to use 2, hlc3? Also on the RSI chart on the bottom do I have to click on the 1d tab? I've never used Tradingview before.
  • #299
  • Edited 7:43am May 14, 2018 7:32am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} In your pictures your RSI is showing 2, Close? I thought I was supposed to use 2, hlc3? Also on the RSI chart on the bottom do I have to click on the 1d tab? I've never used Tradingview before.
Best not to take much notice of me when I have had a few Brandys...

It's hard to change the setting on my tablet.. I was losing the plot. Yes, it should be HLC3.. Sorry about that. I miss my computer, I can do it in seconds. On the tablet it take me ages. It even takes me hours to take a screen shot.. Damn thing. Nice sitting here with a latte though relaxing in the sun. Beautiful day. The wife wants me to walk up Ben Nevis. I said can I drive up lol

I have it on the D tab - Just to see how the RSI2 goes before going to H4. Slow today. The NZDUSD was doing OK but the USD is still weak. Will see how it goes. I won't take no trades till I get back home.

Scroll the candle tab and Line break. Set it to 1. Do not at any time use Renko chart.

Super edit: I'll be back later...
Another edit. Tradingview will only let you see D1 linebreak chart if you haven't joined. Don't as D1 is good enough. Just have a free account or it shouts at you for having to many charts open at once :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Linebreaksetting.png Size: 51 KB
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The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #300
  • May 14, 2018 8:06am May 14, 2018 8:06am
Quoting neilgroom
{quote} Best not to take much notice of me when I have had a few Brandys... It's hard to change the setting on my tablet.. I was losing the plot. Yes, it should be HLC3.. Sorry about that. I miss my computer, I can do it in seconds. On the tablet it take me ages. It even takes me hours to take a screen shot.. Damn thing. Nice sitting here with a latte though relaxing in the sun. Beautiful day. The wife wants me to walk up Ben Nevis. I said can I drive up lol I have it on the D tab - Just to see how the RSI2 goes before going to H4. Slow today. The...
I think I have the Chart portion of the settings correct......but i'm not sure about the RSI portion of the settings?
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