Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
One trade per daily bar, or per X bars on current timeframe 0 replies
1 trade per pair per year 6 replies
multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies
Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies
DislikedHmm... So the whole concept is residing on myfxbook data which integrate with their broker. This gives us an inside of their position. And since most retail traders are losers. We just bet opposite of them?Ignored
DislikedHmm... So the whole concept is residing on myfxbook data which integrate with their broker. This gives us an inside of their position. And since most retail traders are losers. We just bet opposite of them?Ignored
Disliked{quote} I don't think it's quite as easy as that. Wish it was Large institutions were on the short side of GU long before it started falling. Have a look at this: https://www.myfxbook.com/commitments-of-traders/gbp What I'm trying to say is that they can handle 100+ pips moves against their position. We can't! So it still means daily technical preparation as per usualIgnored
Disliked{quote} I don't think it's quite as easy as that. Wish it was Large institutions were on the short side of GU long before it started falling. Have a look at this: https://www.myfxbook.com/commitments-of-traders/gbp What I'm trying to say is that they can handle 100+ pips moves against their position. We can't! So it still means daily technical preparation as per usualIgnored
Disliked{quote} I think there is a level of simplicity to be sought here - deconstructing if you like. Banks/Funds etc are buying/selling on the basis of 'fundamentals' - what is it 46% strategies are this or the like? They then use 'technicals' - fibs/S&R to get in. You then have 'retail trade (gambling - it is.) data' - myfxbook is publicly available showing the data of christ knows what. Anything hooked up to myfxbook - this is 'retail data'. We don't know what the Banks/Funds are doing in advance / even real time - you have price in front of you - that...Ignored
Disliked{quote} IMHO, the large reduction in long position in 30 April (also 24/4 and 1/5) is because of SL and many long positions has been stopped out when breaking previous lows "unexpectedly", while the price rise for 10/5 is a bit different....previous bull think EURUSD will go down further, so they surrender at the rebound hoping for losing less (so long reduce) while some even hedge at the "high" (for their losing long position).....All in all, retail long have been scared for so long and doing the dumb act again and further rebound is highly expected....Ignored
Disliked{quote} Apparently 'retail traders' consist 2% of the whole forex market (gamblers - remember less than 5% are making consistent profit - in my book less) So if myfxbook is an accurate picture of 2% of the forex market then what ? Have a look at this picture.... Non-commercial does it absolutely fine for me... "Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions, which operate on the futures market and meet the reporting requirements." "Commercial Traders This type of classification is usually given...Ignored
Disliked{quote} COT is good but no quite update for short term trade and delay for several days...so it maybe good for long term investing rather than trading....myfxbook is just use as a proxy or gauge of retail emotion...and all we know retail emotion are mostly wrong and we just do the opposite to the emotion not because of their share of the FX market.... ps. I am not the expert of this method, I am just a student of it. But from the method and the perspective or way of thinking of this method. I have seen myself....how dumb, how desperate and betting...Ignored
DislikedRetail Positioning for GBPUSD. I'll keep updating with other currency pairs as I have time to populate them. --- Retail Traders were really heavy on longs as at the previous week. But they are beginning to seriously cut those long positions and slowly adding shorts at the end of this week. Does the reduction in longs mean that many buy orders have hit SL or is it that many accounts have margin call? I could never know why, but what I do know is that there's an ongoing slight shift in sentiments. --- Judging from FA as well as higher TF technical...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hi, how was this calculated? Is it Myfxbook Community Outlook data using Lots and not positions? Your data is different to what Myfxbook is showing in the chart if you are using lot data? {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} COT report is delayed - who knows when the banks actually compile that information - some say Tuesday for it to go in for the Friday report, so you are seeing data 3 days old - plus the compile time from the bank. yes up at weekly you can see it but if you are day trading - well.... You would be trading Sunday/Monday on 'Tuesday's' data - they could have rolled up the previous week in that data for Tuesdays report? They could change their position come Monday morning. I / we have no idea right?Ignored
DislikedImpenia (https://www.forexfactory.com/impenia) difference is 4 hours vs D1 jmtini (https://www.forexfactory.com/jmtini) "GBPUSD COT report" - what are you looking at? The CFTC COT Friday report is the future of the currency - not a spot cross. The GBPUSD stuff above from Imprenia is Myfxbook 'retail' lots - this is anything connected to myfxbook If you look at the myfxbook data 4hrs / 12 hours - it drifts in and out of correlation (inverse), Impenia is looking at the right type of analysis - just looking at the image here is...Ignored
Disliked{quote} No I'm looking at the history (as an example 9th January 2018). Are you saying that the myfxbook data on that day would have been any different (longs vs shorts)? And GBPUSD was most definitely in an uptrend. My point is that contrarian trading is not impregnable because the institutions are not getting a huge amount of liquidity from retail traders! However it certainly seems to work in the main as has been proved already on this thread. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} Test it. GBP went up til 3rd Jan and then came down til 12th Jan. COT - data collected from Financial institutions. Myfxbook - anyone that has hooked up myfxbook to their trading account. Also - this 'liquidity from retail' - the stats bounded around on here say retail is 2% of the market.... "certainly seems to work in the main as has been proved already on this thread" - thread has been open less than 2 weeks. It is absolutely not proven at all. People on this forum need to objectively test 'system' and 'methods' for weeks & months before...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Stimpy will you move on and leave this thread. Stop wasting peoples time. You don't believe it so go somewhere else. I have been doing this for years. You have unsubscribed from the thread so move on. You will get nowhere in life asking silly questions. Subscribing to every thread there is and not believing anything. Some of us use the RSI 2 method. Some COT research. Some other things. It's up to them what they do with the method outlined in the first post. Don't argue with them in what they do. If you don't believe or do some research...Ignored
Dislikedre: I don't see any analysis further than what Impenia is doing. So why don't you go do some. Read post 1 again then go research. See if you can find an angle. It works if you do some research. You have the basic of a very, very successful method. I get PM'S every day saying why don't you give you full system out and just give out the myfxbook bit and bits and bobs here and there. Why should I. It took me years to figure out and working past midnight 7 days a week. So why should I just post it in a FX forum for everyone.. If I even did that people...Ignored