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  • #261
  • May 12, 2018 2:47pm May 12, 2018 2:47pm
Quoting bojack34
{quote} 2 posts and NO EDITS! I'm proud of you! #slacker
LMAO I was just about to do one.... I love my edits :-) - Hope you doing well.. Dinner and a few brandy's now... Not stopped raining yet.

Edit See ya later bojack34

Edit again. I'm in trouble now. I can see a divorce coming LOL
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #262
  • May 12, 2018 3:02pm May 12, 2018 3:02pm
Quoting neilgroom
{quote} LMAO I was just about to do one.... I love my edits :-) - Hope you doing well.. Dinner and a few brandy's now... Not stopped raining yet. Edit See ya later bojack34 Edit again. I'm in trouble now. I can see a divorce coming LOL
Just blame it on me. Tell her it's my fault. I'll take the bullet for you. LOL
  • #263
  • May 12, 2018 3:05pm May 12, 2018 3:05pm
Quoting neilgroom
{quote} LMAO I was just about to do one.... I love my edits :-) - Hope you doing well.. Dinner and a few brandy's now... Not stopped raining yet. Edit See ya later bojack34 Edit again. I'm in trouble now. I can see a divorce coming LOL
I just went and took a peek at Scorpian and it's showing trades for May 11th - 15th......so from Friday to Tuesday....haha....??? I'll check again tomorrow afternoon and see if they have updated their site yet.
  • #264
  • May 12, 2018 3:13pm May 12, 2018 3:13pm
Quoting stimpy
Impenia (https://www.forexfactory.com/impenia) difference is 4 hours vs D1
Not sure why this would be a problem. If you look at the H4 chart vs D1 chart (or any other TF for that matter) on mt4, the different charts will only give some perspective on activity (price action) that occurred within those different TFs. However, the CURRENT MARKET PRICE will remain the same regardless of which TF you look at. Consequently, the current open positions of retail traders (myfxbook) will remain the same regardless which TF you look at. As I mentioned earlier, my figures are gotten as at NY close of each day.
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #267
  • Edited 4:48pm May 12, 2018 3:47pm | Edited 4:48pm
Quoting stimpy
{quote} Because you are talking about the timeframe which you are calculating the lots differences as day but using 4hr - I have shown that your lots values are different for the 4hr vs the D1 value. Myfxbook is displaying H4 & D1 the same - I am advising you your excel sheet is showing different. Positions are the same but you are displaying lots in your posts. Comparing Myfxbook lots or positions on different days has nothing to do with price.
Fair enough, mate. My excel sheet actually shows figures for volume (LOTS). I erroneously used the term POSITIONS while responding in my earlier comment.
---
Having said that, I still maintain my view that the LOTS do not change when TFs are charged AS LONG AS YOU TAKE THE FIGURES AT NY CLOSE (or any other SPECIFIC time) . Continuing with the mt4 chart analogy, looking at D1 chart might give you a different value for candle High than looking at the H4 candle high BUT THE MARKET PRICE AT NY CLOSE (or any other SPECIFIC time) will always remain the same.
---
Edit: Well, @stimpy, maybe my data is, indeed, different from what you are seeing. It is either you and I are looking at different cutoff times or maybe I'm just plain wrong. But, for my purpose, I'm using a specific cutoff time everyday to ensure my daily data always represent a specific 24hr period. But, you know what? I really don't have to share my data publicly (except you also think I have some alterior motives), and those will definitely my last ones. If you've got a better method, just go ahead and use it.
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #268
  • Edited 5:03pm May 12, 2018 4:35pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting jasonckb
{quote} COT is good but no quite update for short term trade and delay for several days...so it maybe good for long term investing rather than trading....myfxbook is just use as a proxy or gauge of retail emotion...and all we know retail emotion are mostly wrong and we just do the opposite to the emotion not because of their share of the FX market.... ps. I am not the expert of this method, I am just a student of it. But from the method and the perspective or way of thinking of this method. I have seen myself....how dumb, how desperate and betting...
I agree with your submission, Jason. The myfxbook data may be just a small sample but it's not insignificant in gauging retail sentiments. Have you ever wondered how exit polls are generally able to predict the outcome of final election results (even though only thousands of people were used as against the tens of millions that actually vote)? Sampling is an important subject in statistics.
---
Just like you, I've always found myself trying to fight a trend and averaging down my orders, so I'm not surprised to learn that the vast majority of dumb money behave that way. Take the current USD strength as an example, I've been trying severally to catch reversals but continually failing (even though my TA was giving me signals). Knowing what I know now, I'd probably have ignored those signals, at least until now where there seems to be gradual shift in retail sentiments.
----
When I read technical analysis on dailyfx.com, there's a phrase that is often used during their analysis

  1. "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests xxxxxx may continue to fall."

I never really understood the import of these statements until I found this thread and the dots began to connect.
---
I completely understand if folks have reservations about this strategy or even have questions about Neil's motives. As for me, I think there's immense value in this way of thinking. Just because I've found this thread, I'm not going to suddenly throwaway all my TA & FA, but will simply use the information shared here to refine and enhance my trading strategy. The same old Price Action, Support & Resistance still works.
---
This is the first thread on FF I'm ever actively subscribing to and participating, even though I've been quietly reading through some other great ones like Davit's Pivot Point and Strat's PASR threads.

Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #269
  • May 12, 2018 4:53pm May 12, 2018 4:53pm
Quoting Impenia
{quote} I agree with your submission, Jason. The myfxbook data may be just a small sample but it's not insignificant in gauging retail sentiments. Have you ever wondered how exit polls are generally able to predict the outcome of final election results (even though only thousands of people were used as against the tens of millions that actually vote)? Sampling is an important subject in statistics. --- Just like you, I've always found myself trying to fight a trend and averaging down my orders, so I'm not surprised to learn that the vast majority...
Impenia, I too follow Davit's thread and I believe that using the contrarian method along with how Davit gradually enters trades and uses PA to decide when to enter and when to "add" to winning trades is something to think about. If you wanted to you could get the pairs to trade from this strategy using Myfxbook and Scorpion and then either enter blindly at market open on Monday, or if you wanted to use more TA to enter your trade you could then use the Weekly Pivots and "favor" the direction you get from this thread. If you decide to enter blindly at Market Open on Monday I think that breaking your Lot Size down into 4 different smaller lots would be appropriate. This would allow for you to enter regardless of direction and then start "stacking" your trades after you see your trades going in your desired direction. This will allow you to "widen" your SL available just incase price decided to go against you in the beginning.

Last week was my first week using this strategy so I chose to blindly enter trades at the start of the week and I did very well. This week I will also enter trades blindly at the start of the week but I will only enter at 25% of my total lot size and then once I see price going in my desired direction depending on TA (Pivots and Major S/R on HTF) I will "at that point" start to stack the other 3 trades (at 25% of my total lot size). I am going to ONLY use Scorpion's suggestions that align with the rules Neil put in place with Myfxbook.
  • #270
  • May 12, 2018 5:19pm May 12, 2018 5:19pm
I really do think the COT report should be the subject for another thread. Just because on paper a currency strengthens it doesn't mean its going to move, other currencies have to be taken into consideration, this now becomes a number crunching exercise. Scorpion has done that.

This thread has all the relevant info on Page 1 Post 1 and removes the real need for the COT report and excel.

Keep it simple......Scorpion and Myfxbook to get the relevant pair and assumed direction. Then use whatever technical's we individually prefer to enter and exit a trade.
Blindly taking trades at market open may well work (perhaps a basket) hint, cough...however using the usual forms of technical analysis may well result in getting in at a better price.... one trade, 10 pips decent lot size...job done for the week.

M.
  • #271
  • May 12, 2018 5:52pm May 12, 2018 5:52pm
Quoting moodybot
I really do think the COT report should be the subject for another thread. Just because on paper a currency strengthens it doesn't mean its going to move, other currencies have to be taken into consideration, this now becomes a number crunching exercise. Scorpion has done that. This thread has all the relevant info on Page 1 Post 1 and removes the real need for the COT report and excel. Keep it simple......Scorpion and Myfxbook to get the relevant pair and assumed direction. Then use whatever technical's we individually prefer to enter and exit...
Well, yeah, I agree that we should try to keep this as simple as possible. No point over complicating things.
---
My excel, though is nothing more than the same data from myfxbook that all of us are looking at. I just figured out a way to lay them out, so I can see patterns...especially when retail sentiments is changing. But quite frankly, you don't need it. Neil has been been doing fine so far without it. So, as I said, I'll do everyone a favour and stop posting them to prevent further distractions.
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #272
  • May 12, 2018 6:34pm May 12, 2018 6:34pm
Quoting Impenia
{quote} Well, yeah, I agree that we should try to keep this as simple as possible. No point over complicating things. --- My excel, though is nothing more than the same data from myfxbook that all of us are looking at. I just figured out a way to lay them out, so I can see patterns...especially when retail sentiments is changing. But quite frankly, you don't need it. Neil has been been doing fine so far without it. So, as I said, I'll do everyone a favour and stop posting them to prevent further distractions.
fmsfx and I have been downloading to excel the COT report for quite a long time, then number crunching.
Hitting on one pair to trade has been good, sometimes its a little sketchy.... no real clear cut pattern.
Undoubtedly fmsfx has a better take on it than I do.

I would be more concerned with the COT report appearing as a holy grail, it isn't.
I think traders would get a similar pair to trade just using Scorpion and myfxbook and they are a lot easier to use. Do keep posting, I for one am interested in your analysis and thought process and who know's, you may hit on something.
  • #273
  • Edited May 13, 2018 1:59pm May 12, 2018 10:08pm | Edited May 13, 2018 1:59pm
My contrarian trades this week according to ScorpianFX and Myfxbook will be:

BUY USD/CHF.........90% short on Myfxbook with 13,265 Volume

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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SELL NZD/USD.......83% long on Myfxbook with 4706 Volume (doesn't exactly meet the 5000 volume qualification but it's close....we'll see how it goes)

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SELL GBP/USD.......73% long on Myfxbook with 6904 Volume

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.png Size: 191 KB




I am going to trade these 3 in three different ways......

1st way is blindly entering all 3 trades as soon as the market opens on Monday with my full lot size (2% risk per trade)

2nd way is to enter all 3 trades as soon as the market opens on Monday. I will break my lot size (2% risk) into 4 smaller lot sizes and enter .25% of my lot size as soon as the market opens and then I will watch Price Action on the H4 time frame and enter the remaining 75% when PA shows me that price is going in my intended direction. I will mark key S/R areas and S/D areas on the H4 Frame and enter as PA confirms the move.

3rd way is to wait for the RSI 2 to get in to Buy or Sell teritory and follow Neil's suggestion to go "with" the RSI signal and not "opposite" like most people do. I will wait for USD/CHF to get over 70 before I "Buy", wait for both GBPUSD and NZD/USD to get under the 30 before I "Sell".


Is the 3rd way correct Neil? Am I missing anything important?
  • #274
  • May 13, 2018 5:19am May 13, 2018 5:19am
Quoting stimpy
{quote} Test it. GBP went up til 3rd Jan and then came down til 12th Jan - Asset Managers/Institutional correct, non-reportable wrong. With COT we are talking the week prior. It doesn't tell us days. COT - data collected from Financial institutions. Myfxbook - anyone that has hooked up myfxbook to their trading account. Also - this 'liquidity from retail' - the stats bounded around on here say retail is 2% of the market.... "certainly seems to work in the main as has been proved already on this thread" - thread has been open less than 2 weeks. It...

Firstly, I said that they (large institutions) do NOT get liquidity from small retail traders so I don't know why you are arguing the point.

Secondly, where do you get your information that asset managers/institutional traders were long during the first part of January which is the period I was referring to? That is not what the COT report for that period suggests. The COT report is not comprehensive but does give a good indication IMHO.

Thirdly, If you look at other threads as well as numerous websites regarding contrarian trading, it certainly does work. Not all the time of course. NOTHING in this game is 100% otherwise there would be lots and lots of forex millionaires around! But with good research and money management it's a great technique IMHO.

I suggest that you stop arguing with people on this thread just for the sake of taking an opposing view which seems to be your forte!
  • #275
  • May 13, 2018 5:38am May 13, 2018 5:38am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Firstly, I said that they (large institutions) do NOT get liquidity from small retail traders so I don't know why you are arguing the point. Secondly, where do you get your information that asset managers/institutional traders were long during the first part of January which is the period I was referring to? That is not what the COT report for that period suggests. The COT report is not comprehensive but does give a good indication IMHO. Thirdly, If you look at other threads as well as numerous websites regarding contrarian trading, it certainly...
Better ignore him...he has got a plan.
  • #276
  • May 13, 2018 6:54am May 13, 2018 6:54am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Firstly, I said that they (large institutions) do NOT get liquidity from small retail traders so I don't know why you are arguing the point. Secondly, where do you get your information that asset managers/institutional traders were long during the first part of January which is the period I was referring to? That is not what the COT report for that period suggests. The COT report is not comprehensive but does give a good indication IMHO. Thirdly, If you look at other threads as well as numerous websites regarding contrarian trading, it certainly...
It is not an opposing view is it and the fact that people cannot grasp that says more about the quality of the thread.

Some very confused ideas and people in here - full of errors, idioms and a lack of science.

It is simply blindly following ScorpionFX and not a lot else - it can be dressed up differently as people wish, it isn't a technique at all. You could all be from ScorpionFX for all we know - the whole Angela1985 and jayrai could be one big funnel upto here - who knows.

Relying on ScorpionFX has absolutely nothing to do with learning to 'trade'

This thread rightly belongs down in the commercial thread - hopefully someone will create a decent sentiment/contrarian & strength thread.
  • #277
  • May 13, 2018 7:35am May 13, 2018 7:35am
Quoting stimpy
{quote} It is not an opposing view is it and the fact that people cannot grasp that says more about the quality of the thread. Some very confused ideas and people in here - full of errors, idioms and a lack of science. It is simply blindly following ScorpionFX and not a lot else - it can be dressed up differently as people wish, it isn't a technique at all. You could all be from ScorpionFX for all we know - the whole Angela1985 and jayrai could be one big funnel upto here - who knows. Relying on ScorpionFX has absolutely nothing to do with learning...

If the thread is full of confused people,errors, idioms and a lack of science then welcome to the world of Forex where nothing is black and White. The simple answer for you is to open up a new thread explaining the errors, idioms and lack of science.
Pop up a trade explorer and start calling live trades, that way the debate will be settled without a shot having being fired.
All people want is a working method to trade Forex, if you have such a method, or you believe the ideas suggested here don't work or cannot work then demonstrate the reason why.
  • #278
  • Edited 8:15am May 13, 2018 7:42am | Edited 8:15am
Stimpy unsubscribed from you.... Oh bless... Think I'll have an afternoon Brandy to celebrate then go walk round Loch Lomond.

It isnt rocket science you fool....

The total funds of myfxbook real accounts amounts to $1,509,896,681

Over One and a half Billion Dollars

They have been buying the CHF since Mid February 2018

74% still have CHF buys

To newcomers. That charts means the CHF is really weak

Bottom chart show USD/CHF weekly since Feb when retail traders started selling it.
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Attached Image
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #279
  • May 13, 2018 7:44am May 13, 2018 7:44am
Hi guys. Firstly i would like to thank you for that thread. I think that this strategy working well. Only one problem i have with it. Please, how to calculate SL and TP for trades? Many thanks for answers!
  • #280
  • May 13, 2018 7:51am May 13, 2018 7:51am
Quoting stimpy
{quote} It is not an opposing view is it and the fact that people cannot grasp that says more about the quality of the thread. Some very confused ideas and people in here - full of errors, idioms and a lack of science. It is simply blindly following ScorpionFX and not a lot else - it can be dressed up differently as people wish, it isn't a technique at all. You could all be from ScorpionFX for all we know - the whole Angela1985 and jayrai could be one big funnel upto here - who knows. Relying on ScorpionFX has absolutely nothing to do with learning...
You are continuously misleading people....As I know, neil not ever saying that blindly follow ScopionFX and please go to visit page 1...He use Scorpion recommended pairs and then go to myfxbook to see if any pairs meet the contrarian method (1. biased in position, say at least 30:70; 2. lot size over 5000?). If the contrarian view also meet, he waits daily RSI - 2 period to go into overbought (70) for long entry.....as simple as that.....And I think this is not a system page, it is just a way of thinking. You may not go to ScorpionFx, or you can just based on your system of finding suitable pairs and the importance is go opposite with the retail. If you are so smart, why come here and blahblahblah. Go to have you page and share your holygrail system and show your science when you don't sampling as a science.
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