(binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont | Page 12 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

One trade per daily bar, or per X bars on current timeframe 0 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

Attachments: (binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont
Exit Attachments

(binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont

  • #221
  • May 10, 2018 11:02pm May 10, 2018 11:02pm
Quoting neilgroom
{quote} Yes it's like this. I hate those ugly ones. Here it is. No dollar though unless Im going blind. https://www.tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures https://www.tradingster.com/cot Edit. Dollar futures is there. I need my eyes testing.
Perfect! Much easier to read. I'll be interested to see when it gets published tomorrow (how much longer than the raw data report). Thanks Neil
  • #222
  • May 11, 2018 1:04am May 11, 2018 1:04am
Quoting lctrader11
{quote} The numbers fmsfx spoke of earlier is for the Big Boys (Insitutions), which is who we want to follow.

I'm sure there are plenty of educational sites out there. This one comes with a video if you (well, not you specifically...anyone who is reading ths) learn better that way. I hope it helps. Look specifically at Point #2. https://www.learningmarkets.com/understanding-and-trading-the-cot-report/
Thanks mate or the link.
---
I've done some readings in the past on COT report but have never really made a trading decision based on the report (maybe it's about time). But how do we apply all these data to our daily/weekly trading routine?
---
My thoughts would be to place little significance on the COMMERCIAL traders. I think they are such long-term traders (taking position months ahead) that many of us don't have large enough accounts to follow them. I would like to think that putting more weight on the NON-COMMERCIALS (Large Speculators) would be better as these are the people who trade strictly for profit and, therefore, have a higher tendency to manipulate the markets.
---
So, the strategy would be to look for situations when the large specs have a NET LONG position (and continuously buying) a currency, while on the other hand, the Retail Traders are NET SHORT (and continuously) selling the currency. Once the retail traders turn and want to move in tandem with the large specs, we ignore until they begin to move opposite of each other again.
---
To be clear, this is just a suggestion (an opinion). I'm not sure if it's a good strategy as I've never tried it before. Just wanted to share my thoughts to stimulate more discussion on the subject.
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #223
  • May 11, 2018 2:14am May 11, 2018 2:14am
Sunset Star for DXY and RSI 2 go into "sell" zone in daily timeframe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_1.png Size: 11 KB
  • #224
  • May 11, 2018 4:57am May 11, 2018 4:57am
Quoting Impenia
{quote} Thanks mate or the link. --- I've done some readings in the past on COT report but have never really made a trading decision based on the report (maybe it's about time). But how do we apply all these data to our daily/weekly trading routine? --- My thoughts would be to place little significance on the COMMERCIAL traders. I think they are such long-term traders (taking position months ahead) that many of us don't have large enough accounts to follow them. I would like to think that putting more weight on the NON-COMMERCIALS (Large Speculators)...
This is heavy for people like me (including most of RT's I think) who really only trade technical indicators. And like most, not very successfully if we were all to be quite honest. So it's a fascinating stuff and I again thank all the contributors on this thread. An awful lot to digest but I think it's well worth digesting!

USD and JPY have gone very weak - USD only 0.43 at the moment on my currency meter - The highest is 9.00 so that is really weak! I have GBP and AUD as the strongest this morning. But with USD news later I'm wondering how much "inside information" these big guys have with regards to forthcoming news breaks? It will be interesting to see if the news is indeed USD negative today
  • #225
  • May 11, 2018 5:08am May 11, 2018 5:08am
I tried to find an indicator to show how the SMA2 can work.. I couldn't figure out a solution for MT4 but then I remembered a very clever forexfactory member by the name of ferrufx. Good programmer. I believe he has left now though. It doesn't work like mine but this is a MA2 daily with a STRENGTH period of 1. That's where people go wrong. They leave them at the default 13 etc. I don't care what happened 10 - 11 -14 candles ago, I want to know what is happening now. That's how mine works. Forget the past. Focus on what is happening right now. Will the dollar index drop. Is it a big pullback. The prices are to high for the big guys. They might be taking there money somewhere else. Did you close all your dollar trades.

If interested Search ferrufx in forexfactory.. If off soon for ten days. Woop. Peace..
Attached Image
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #226
  • May 11, 2018 5:28am May 11, 2018 5:28am
Quoting neilgroom
I tried to find an indicator to show how the SMA2 can work.. I couldn't figure out a solution for MT4 but then I remembered a very clever forexfactory member by the name of ferrufx. Good programmer. I believe he has left now though. It doesn't work like mine but this is a MA2 daily with a STRENGTH period of 1. That's where people go wrong. They leave them at the default 13 etc. I don't care what happened 10 - 11 -14 candles ago, I want to know what is happening now. That's how mine works. Forget the past. Focus on what is happening right now. Will...
Thanks. You deserve a break!

People might find this site also quite helpful to see what trading pairs are strong or weak right now which is useful too:
https://www.actionforex.com/markets/top-movers/

If you scroll down you also get "top movers" in respective time frame
  • #227
  • May 11, 2018 5:57am May 11, 2018 5:57am
Quoting jasonckb
Sunset Star for DXY and RSI 2 go into "sell" zone in daily timeframe. {image}
Anti-USD run up fast.
  • #228
  • May 11, 2018 7:09am May 11, 2018 7:09am
Quoting neilgroom
I tried to find an indicator to show how the SMA2 can work.. I couldn't figure out a solution for MT4 but then I remembered a very clever forexfactory member by the name of ferrufx. Good programmer. I believe he has left now though. It doesn't work like mine but this is a MA2 daily with a STRENGTH period of 1. That's where people go wrong. They leave them at the default 13 etc. I don't care what happened 10 - 11 -14 candles ago, I want to know what is happening now. That's how mine works. Forget the past. Focus on what is happening right now. Will...
he is still around:

https://cdn-assets.forexfactory.net/...tar39883_6.gif FerruFx

  1. Status:
  2. MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder

  1. Last Online:
  2. 28 min ago

  1. Using Local Time:
  2. 7:09pm

  1. Joined Forex Factory:
  2. May 2007

there is always, always another trade!!
  • #229
  • Edited 7:50am May 11, 2018 7:39am | Edited 7:50am
Right I'm out of here for a long deserved break..

No charts and no going blind looking at the latest COT report etc.. One thing to remember though.

It's extremely hard to tell how the millions of traders around the world are going to react to something. Jeeeez, I never know how my wife will react, and I live with her. Plus she's only one person. So how do we know how millions of traders all over the world are going to react to something.

Today is a prime example. OK, it's Friday. Profit taking day. The big guys are messing with us with the USD. There evil at times but extremely clever. Are they profit taking? Are they turning the trend so retail starts buying the USD, so they can drive the price lower? Are they just lowering the price so they get a better deal and drive the price up again?

I don't F*^*"!G know but fascinating isn't it.

If you want to learn more then read this thread. Some good stuff by the OP. Very good stuff. More to learn just don't go blind.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155431
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #230
  • May 11, 2018 8:30am May 11, 2018 8:30am
Quoting Impenia
So, based on my expectations of a possible retracement in EURUSD (judging from Retail Sentiments & DXY chart), this would be my tactical plan for the pair. Notice the inverse H&S pattern on the H1 chart. In fact, most XXXUSD pairs seems to be forming PA setups suggesting a move higher. {image}
So, this is how things have panned out since my last post. So, the strategy, for me, right now is to use FA & Retail Sentiments to determine my directional bias, then use TA (price action & key levels) to pick my entry and exit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20180511-142712.png Size: 196 KB
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #231
  • May 11, 2018 8:41am May 11, 2018 8:41am
Quoting neilgroom
I tried to find an indicator to show how the SMA2 can work.. I couldn't figure out a solution for MT4 but then I remembered a very clever forexfactory member by the name of ferrufx. Good programmer. I believe he has left now though. It doesn't work like mine but this is a MA2 daily with a STRENGTH period of 1. That's where people go wrong. They leave them at the default 13 etc. I don't care what happened 10 - 11 -14 candles ago, I want to know what is happening now. That's how mine works. Forget the past. Focus on what is happening right now. Will...
I've had that strength meter for a long time but never really used it. After you set it to daily TF, what other inputs are you changing to get it to line up with what you are trying to teach us? I will make the appropriate adjustments and make a preset for it. Thanks Neil.
  • #232
  • May 11, 2018 10:00am May 11, 2018 10:00am
EURUSD position has great change today, form 32% short to 40% short and volume climbed from 74xx to 8827 now while long drop form 15xxx to 13120 now....retail are covering their losing/ small gain long position and adding short for hedging while some previous short are adding to average down. EURUSD rebound not finished yet.
Attached Image
  • #233
  • May 11, 2018 10:16am May 11, 2018 10:16am
Quoting Impenia
{quote} So, this is how things have panned out since my last post. So, the strategy, for me, right now is to use FA & Retail Sentiments to determine my directional bias, then use TA (price action & key levels) to pick my entry and exit. {image}
I like how you use the "break - close over - retest - enter" method that I use all the time when a Support/Resistance area get's breached. Nice trade.
  • #234
  • May 11, 2018 5:22pm May 11, 2018 5:22pm
Quoting jasonckb
EURUSD position has great change today, form 32% short to 40% short and volume climbed from 74xx to 8827 now while long drop form 15xxx to 13120 now....retail are covering their losing/ small gain long position and adding short for hedging while some previous short are adding to average down. EURUSD rebound not finished yet. {image}
I agree with you, Jason. Looking at how retail traders are cutting their LONG positions and adding SHORTS this week, one might want to believe that the big dawgs will be interested in squeezing these shorts. I agree that we are not done with the corrections yet, and my charts are also suggesting so.
---
From the chart below, we can see that the week started with approx ratio of 70:30 in favour of longs, but has now been cut to approx 60:40. I will only consider shorting this pair when Retail Traders start aggressively adding long positions and cutting shorts. (I've decided, going forward, to use NY Close as the cutoff time to pick my figures.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20180511_230830.jpg Size: 382 KB
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #235
  • May 11, 2018 10:35pm May 11, 2018 10:35pm
Quoting Impenia
{quote} I agree with you, Jason. Looking at how retail traders are cutting their LONG positions and adding SHORTS this week, one might want to believe that the big dawgs will be interested in squeezing these shorts. I agree that we are not done with the corrections yet, and my charts are also suggesting so. --- From the chart below, we can see that the week started with approx ratio of 70:30 in favour of longs, but has now been cut to approx 60:40. I will only consider shorting this pair when Retail Traders start aggressively adding long positions...
Hi Impenia

Did you do that chart yourself or is it on a website?

Thanks
Jm
  • #236
  • May 11, 2018 11:39pm May 11, 2018 11:39pm
Quoting Impenia
{quote} I agree with you, Jason. Looking at how retail traders are cutting their LONG positions and adding SHORTS this week, one might want to believe that the big dawgs will be interested in squeezing these shorts. I agree that we are not done with the corrections yet, and my charts are also suggesting so. --- From the chart below, we can see that the week started with approx ratio of 70:30 in favour of longs, but has now been cut to approx 60:40. I will only consider shorting this pair when Retail Traders start aggressively adding long positions...
Hello Impenia: Do you have this information from previous week?.

Regards.
  • #237
  • May 12, 2018 12:08am May 12, 2018 12:08am
Quoting jmtini
{quote} Hi Impenia Did you do that chart yourself or is it on a website? Thanks Jm
Did it myself. A bit tedious, that's why I've not been able to do more than a few pairs at the moment.
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #238
  • May 12, 2018 12:38am May 12, 2018 12:38am
Quoting krismitt
{quote} Hello Impenia: Do you have this information from previous week?. Regards.
No pal, I just started doing it this week. However, I've just done a snapshot of the previous week positioning for you. I didn't bother to go into the daily analysis of that week. Hope it helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20180512_063531.jpg Size: 134 KB
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #239
  • May 12, 2018 1:41am May 12, 2018 1:41am
Retail Positioning for GBPUSD. I'll keep updating with other currency pairs as I have time to populate them.
---
Retail Traders were really heavy on longs as at the previous week. But they are beginning to seriously cut those long positions and slowly adding shorts at the end of this week. Does the reduction in longs mean that many buy orders have hit SL or is it that many accounts have margin call? I could never know why, but what I do know is that there's an ongoing slight shift in sentiments.
---
Judging from FA as well as higher TF technical analysis, my long-term bias is still to short this pair, but won't do so until retail sentiments begin to shift again and I get confirming PA.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20180512_073713.jpg Size: 360 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20180512_073746.jpg Size: 145 KB
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #240
  • May 12, 2018 2:55am May 12, 2018 2:55am
Hmm... So the whole concept is residing on myfxbook data which integrate with their broker. This gives us an inside of their position.

And since most retail traders are losers. We just bet opposite of them?
You're going to pay a price for every bloody thing you do and don't do
0 traders viewing now