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(binned per thread starter's request) Currency Strength with cont

  • #201
  • May 10, 2018 1:17am May 10, 2018 1:17am
Quoting Impenia
Just wanted to post my observation on Change of Open Interest (COI) of Retail Positioning for EURUSD. I've also attached my version of Currency Rankings based on yesterday close. {image} {image}
I assume the April dates are a typo? ☺
  • #202
  • May 10, 2018 2:00am May 10, 2018 2:00am
Quoting saytin
{quote} I assume the April dates are a typo? ☺
Obviously, mate. My bad...lol
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #203
  • May 10, 2018 6:50am May 10, 2018 6:50am
Hi all, I will be closing all my trades at New York close today as I go away for 10 days on Friday night.

I hope you where all on the CAD. That took back my GBP/USD losses from the other day. Research pays off.

I will be unsubscribing from the thread over this time and won't be answering PM'S.

Your all better off without me anyway.. A lot of you are finding your own approach and that's great. Getting the ratings etc.

P.S I wont edit this one. Just remember how unpredictable the British weather is. The USD will have it's monsoon one day and take you by surprise.

Edit.. Just because I felt like it but changed nothing.
Edit 2. I might change something later though because I type very fast and spot mistakes hours later.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #204
  • May 10, 2018 7:01am May 10, 2018 7:01am
Quoting neilgroom
Hi all, I will be closing all my trades at New York close today as I go away for 10 days on Friday night. I hope you where all on the CAD. That took back my GBP/USD losses from the other day. Research pays off. I will be unsubscribing from the thread over this time and won't be answering PM'S. Your all better off without me anyway.. A lot of you are finding your own approach and that's great. Getting the ratings etc. P.S I wont edit this one. Just remember how unpredictable the British weather is. The USD will have it's monsoon one day and take...

Safe travels mate. You have shared some interesting stuff.


Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #205
  • Edited 10:07am May 10, 2018 9:19am | Edited 10:07am
GBP/USD.. RSI period 2 HLC3 hit 30 around 3pm U.K time. Giving us a sell signal.

On the daily chart. Tradingview chart. An SSI selection still.

As you know I use the 4 hour chart but risk the daily chart if a good signal is given.
It will give you more drawdown at times though until it goes in your direction.
A quick trade before I close all my positions for ten days.
A few PM's to finish then bam. Long rest.

Edit as I like to...

You can also use dailyfx.com charts.. Of which are tradingview charts.
It also gives you IG client setiment but keep with myfxbook
Pivot points
and support & reistance
A few news headlines
dailyfx.com/gbp-usd etc.

It's hitting major resistance. Stop loss hit for a nice profit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NewTradeGBPUSD.png Size: 27 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #206
  • May 10, 2018 10:16am May 10, 2018 10:16am
Quoting neilgroom
GBP/USD.. RSI period 2 HLC3 hit 30 around 3pm U.K time. Giving us a sell signal. On the daily chart. Tradingview chart. An SSI selection still. As you know I use the 4 hour chart but risk the daily chart if a good signal is given. It will give you more drawdown at times though until it goes in your direction. A quick trade before I close all my positions for ten days. A few PM's to finish then bam. Long rest. Edit as I like to... You can also use dailyfx.com charts.. Of which are tradingview charts. It also gives you IG client setiment but keep...
Very nice!
  • #207
  • May 10, 2018 10:59am May 10, 2018 10:59am
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} Things are going well this week. +130 pips so far on these 3 positions. {image}
I closed all my trades today after noticing some changes in the market.

All trades closed for +157 pips.

Not bad for only 3 trades first time testing.

Next week should be fun.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #208
  • May 10, 2018 5:29pm May 10, 2018 5:29pm
Retail Positioning for EURUSD attached. Guys, please observe what's happening to the NET positions. Since on Monday, retail traders have been reducing their NET long positions. As at today, they have significantly increased their Short positioning. Typical of retail traders, they now believe that a downtrend is fully in force, so they now want to participate. But typical of smart money, this is precisely the time they'll be closing their short positions leading to a retracement / reversal.
---
I've also attached my currency rankings as close of business (NY close) today. Even though USD seems to still be strong, my earlier point should serve as a caveat for anyone wanting to go long (i.e short XXXUSD). Also, from a TA perspective, it looks like US Dollar Index (DXY) just formed a bearish pin bar on the daily, signalling possible correction. However, from a FA perspective, the longterm bias is still to buy USD. Hence any correction will be temporary...just to give smart money a better price to continue buying USD.
---
Pardon my rants. Hope I'm not talking BS... lol
---
Edit: I mistakenly attached the wrong currency rankings chart. I've updated with the correct one.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20180510_233609.jpg Size: 95 KB
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #209
  • May 10, 2018 5:35pm May 10, 2018 5:35pm
Quoting Impenia
Retail Positioning for EURUSD attached. Guys, please observe what's happening to the NET positions. Since on Monday, retail traders have been reducing their NET long positions. As at today, they have significantly increased their Short positioning. Typical of retail traders, they now believe that a downtrend is fully in force, so they now want to participate. But typical of smart money, this is precisely the time they'll be closing their short positions leading to a retracement / reversal. --- I've also attached my currency rankings as close of...
Talking BS LOL.. Well no. In actual fact and no disrespect to others on this thread but you are the most Intelligent person I have ever come across on forexfactory.
Who needs me to post my non existent scam method LOL _ just quoting from another thread. Just ignore me..

If you keep this up you will go far and make a fortune. Very well impressed.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #210
  • May 10, 2018 5:45pm May 10, 2018 5:45pm
Quoting Impenia
Retail Positioning for EURUSD attached. Guys, please observe what's happening to the NET positions. Since on Monday, retail traders have been reducing their NET long positions. As at today, they have significantly increased their Short positioning. Typical of retail traders, they now believe that a downtrend is fully in force, so they now want to participate. But typical of smart money, this is precisely the time they'll be closing their short positions leading to a retracement / reversal. --- I've also attached my currency rankings as close of...


Spot on!! You can see the same with the COT report from last Tuesday. 14,093 contracts added to the Shorts and only 4067 added to the Longs.

Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #211
  • May 10, 2018 5:48pm May 10, 2018 5:48pm
Quoting neilgroom
{quote} Talking BS LOL.. Well no. In actual fact and no disrespect to others on this thread but you are the most Intelligent person I have ever come across on forexfactory. Who needs me to post my non existent scam method LOL _ just quoting from another thread. Just ignore me.. If you keep this up you will go far and make a fortune. Very well impressed.
Thanks Neil for the kind words and vote of confidence.
---
The challenge, though, is the tedious process required to populate those position of Retail Traders. I wish there was an easy way, so I could easily do it for as many pairs as possible. But I suppose making money as a trader is not for lazy bones, so I have to put in the work to crunch the numbers...lol.
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #212
  • May 10, 2018 5:50pm May 10, 2018 5:50pm
Quoting fmsfx
{quote} Spot on!! You can see the same with the COT report from last Tuesday. 14,093 contracts added to the Shorts and only 4067 added to the Longs. Dave
Oh, very nice. But does that number reflect the positioning of Retail Traders or that of Large Speculators (Banks & co)?
Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #213
  • May 10, 2018 5:56pm May 10, 2018 5:56pm
Quoting Impenia
{quote} Oh, very nice. But does that number reflect the positioning of Retail Traders or that of Large Speculators (Banks & co)?
Here you go as you can look at all the Indexs. Reports are issued every Tuesday and released to the public Friday(3:30pm est). As I said in the first thread its a little late but when the big fish jump we can still catch the wave if you know what I mean.

"Generally, the data in the COT reports is from Tuesday and released Friday. The CFTC receives the data from the reporting firms on Wednesday morning and then corrects and verifies the data for release by Friday afternoon."

Dave


https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm
K.I.S.S.
  • #214
  • May 10, 2018 6:03pm May 10, 2018 6:03pm
So, based on my expectations of a possible retracement in EURUSD (judging from Retail Sentiments & DXY chart), this would be my tactical plan for the pair. Notice the inverse H&S pattern on the H1 chart. In fact, most XXXUSD pairs seems to be forming PA setups suggesting a move higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication!
  • #215
  • May 10, 2018 7:47pm May 10, 2018 7:47pm
I could never get my head around these reports. It's information overload. The New Zealand Dollar COT report form 2018.05.01.

We ignore the Non commercial.. With commercial as the best... Non reportable are small traders. My brain can't take no more.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NewZeaCOTReport.png Size: 66 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #216
  • May 10, 2018 7:50pm May 10, 2018 7:50pm
Quoting Impenia
{quote} Oh, very nice. But does that number reflect the positioning of Retail Traders or that of Large Speculators (Banks & co)?
The numbers fmsfx spoke of earlier is for the Big Boys (Insitutions), which is who we want to follow:
“Commercial traders” are sometimes called “hedgers”, “non-commercial traders” are sometimes known as “large speculators,” and the “nonreportable” group is sometimes called “small speculators (that would be us).”

I'm sure there are plenty of educational sites out there. This one comes with a video if you (well, not you specifically...anyone who is reading ths) learn better that way. I hope it helps. Look specifically at Point #2.

https://www.learningmarkets.com/understanding-and-trading-the-cot-report/
  • #217
  • May 10, 2018 8:31pm May 10, 2018 8:31pm
It is interesting stuff.

(Quote) -
As you can see in the chart below the Commercial activity is often in the OPPOSITE direction of the markets trends. This is because they are actively buying when the market is going down and actively selling when the market is going up. They are the experts in their businesses they are often seen to be acting many months in advance of where they believe the price will be. Now this is not always the case and Commercials are not always a “sure thing” but they are the closest thing to a “predictor” that we can get. Also in the graph below I have isolated only the commercial movement and the Movement of Crude Oil over the last few years. It is very easy to see that the commercial movement dominates the overall price trend of oil. (End quote)
Source: www.seeitmarket.com/how-to-use-the-cot-report-for-trading-13285/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Crude-Oil_COT-Report-Chart.png Size: 274 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #218
  • May 10, 2018 8:59pm May 10, 2018 8:59pm
Quoting neilgroom
I could never get my head around these reports. It's information overload. The New Zealand Dollar COT report form 2018.05.01. We ignore the Non commercial.. With commercial as the best... Non reportable are small traders. My brain can't take no more. {image}
Hi Neil....what a great format...did you take the data and reformat it? I hope not! That's a lot of work. If you receive the data like that, would you mind sharing the link?
I've got several links to the "ugly", space-delimited data, which I can parse (some work, but still).
  • #219
  • Edited 9:24pm May 10, 2018 9:10pm | Edited 9:24pm
Quoting lctrader11
{quote} Hi Neil....what a great format...did you take the data and reformat it? I hope not! That's a lot of work. If you receive the data like that, would you mind sharing the link? I've got several links to the "ugly", space-delimited data, which I can parse (some work, but still).
Yes it's like this. I hate those ugly ones. Here it is. No dollar though unless Im going blind.

https://www.tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures
https://www.tradingster.com/cot

Edit. Dollar futures is there. I need my eyes testing.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #220
  • Edited 10:29pm May 10, 2018 10:07pm | Edited 10:29pm
Quoting neilgroom
{quote} Yes it's like this. I hate those ugly ones. Here it is. No dollar though unless Im going blind. https://www.tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures https://www.tradingster.com/cot Edit. Dollar futures is there. I need my eyes testing.
I thought this might help.......

Financial CoT reports show number of long and short contracts held by the following five categories of traders.....https://www.tradingster.com/cot

  1. Dealer/Intermediary — the “sell-side“ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sell_side) of the market, e.g. brokers, dealers, market makers, etc.
  2. Asset Manager/Institutional — institutional investors, the “buy-side“ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buy_side) of the market.
  3. Leveraged Funds — money managers or proprietary trading on behalf of speculative private clients; also the “buy-side“.
  4. Other Reportables — market participants who use futures to hedge their risks; they are also considered a “buy-side“.
  5. Nonreportables — positions created by small traders who do not need to report. Mostly small speculators and smaller business clients. This category is calculated using the previous four.



And to reiterate what Ictrader11 already posted............https://www.tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures

The numbers fmsfx spoke of earlier is for the Big Boys (Institutions), which is who want to follow:
"Commercial traders" are sometimes called "hedgers" (Commercials are considered the most knowledgeable & are the most important group to keep tabs on), "non-commercial traders" are sometimes known as "large speculators", and the "nonreportable" group is sometimes called "small speculators" (that would be us), (Small Speculators or some people call “dumb” money. This group is considered the small guy or 1 lot crowd. It is also typically seen that this group is the most ill-informed and thus should be “faded” or traded contrarian too).


EDIT:
As one would expect, the largest positions are held by commercial traders that actually provide a commodity or instrument to the market or have bought a contract to take delivery of it. Thus, as a general rule, more than half the open interest (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/open_interest) in most of these markets is held by commercial traders. There is also participation in these markets by speculators that are not able to deliver on the contract or that have no need for the underlying commodity or instrument. They are buying or selling only to speculate that they will exit their position at a profit, and plan to close their long or short position before the contract becomes due. In most of these markets the majority of the open interest in these "speculator" positions are held by traders whose positions are large enough to meet reporting requirements.
The remainder of holders of contracts in these futures markets, other than "commercial" and "large speculator" traders, are referred to by the CFTC as “nonreportable.” This is because they don’t meet the position size that requires reporting to the CFTC. (Thus they are “small speculators.”) The “nonreportable” open interest in a futures market is determined by subtracting the open interest of the “commercial traders” plus “non-commercial traders” from the total open interest in that market. As a rule, the aggregate of all traders’ positions reported to the CFTC represents 70 to 90 percent of the total open interest in any given market.

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