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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #76,421
  • May 10, 2018 7:35am May 10, 2018 7:35am
Quoting nealpek
give me an estimate of what the swap fee and interest would be....What's the difference for traders who sold short at 125.00 and held the position for a couple of years? Seems that the fees would pale in comparison to the profits....
I don't know the fee. Depends on the lot size. But 1.75% | -.1% would eat up a few dollars. With the risk on interest rates rising in the US, I don't think the big boys may do this anytime soon.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #76,422
  • May 10, 2018 7:38am May 10, 2018 7:38am
Quoting nealpek
give me an estimate of what the swap fee and interest would be....What's the difference for traders who sold short at 125.00 and held the position for a couple of years? Seems that the fees would pale in comparison to the profits....
my swap is -7% on a short position

i trade with 1 or 2 lots, so the fee would be a big number after a few months
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,423
  • May 10, 2018 9:33am May 10, 2018 9:33am
The first shoulder formed. Awaiting head. Above 111 weekly resistance...
First short target 107.0
Forcemeat can not be unrolled back...
  • #76,424
  • May 10, 2018 9:39am May 10, 2018 9:39am
Quoting catroot
The first shoulder formed. Awaiting head. Above 111 weekly resistance... First short target 107.0
this monster has too many heads, you can't say that it has only one
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,425
  • Edited 9:55am May 10, 2018 9:41am | Edited 9:55am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} this monster has too many heads, you can't say that it has only one
Messing channel tops and monster head?
My tp @110.999
Forcemeat can not be unrolled back...
  • #76,426
  • May 10, 2018 9:56am May 10, 2018 9:56am
Looking at the EU, UJ and AU right now at one time on my tiny 17" monitor. I see the same thing. "Lets overreact to CPI news and then reverse this overreaction 100% within 2 hours later." I hate these kind of days, someone must make money with these dumb moves.
  • #76,427
  • May 10, 2018 10:02am May 10, 2018 10:02am
Quoting unlv_tj
Looking at the EU, UJ and AU right now at one time on my tiny 17" monitor. I see the same thing. "Lets overreact to CPI news and then reverse this overreaction 100% within 2 hours later." I hate these kind of days, someone must make money with these dumb moves.
it was expected, USD dips were bought as the bull trend continues
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,428
  • May 10, 2018 10:03am May 10, 2018 10:03am
Quoting catroot
{quote} Messing channel tops and monster head? My tp @110.999
yes, the 111 level is definitely a good target

i would love to see it soon
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,429
  • May 10, 2018 10:50am May 10, 2018 10:50am
Quoting nealpek
A little strategy from warren buffet. U/J long term ends are 125.00 and 75.00. Price is 110 now. It takes balls, but works. I don't think price will go back to 125.00 as US economy is not that strong, and Yen is not that weak. Take short positions as price moves higher, tuck in stop loss above 125.00 which price will never get to and wait. Eventually price will decline and downside is larger than potential upside. When will you be in profit? Who knows. But profit will be there eventually with no losses. Does anyone see price above 125.00? If not,...
Nealpek,to take such a drawdown you might have to use 1:1 margin.Maybe own a bank/liquidity provider to avoid swaps.This is something that only warren buffet can do.If u use 1:1 margin u make like 20% in 2 years.Not bad but I might get more in 2 years with less risk if i put money in S&P futures.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #76,430
  • May 10, 2018 1:08pm May 10, 2018 1:08pm
Or just trade Yen futures themselves at 2/1 no carry debit/credit crap etc.
  • #76,431
  • May 10, 2018 1:41pm May 10, 2018 1:41pm
Quoting MrPresident
bear trap, only short from higher levels around 108, even then, that could be risky Reasons: 1. NFP is expected to be good this week 2. Market is not so worried about trade wars anymore since the White House said that tariffs are only a "negotiation tool" 3. A NAFTA deal is expected very soon 4. Companies will post their first quarter earnings soon and the market is expecting good figures, which will benefit stocks and USD/JPY 5. Nothing from the BOJ to strengthen the YEN, they want it weaker and 110 is a level that companies in Japan would be happy...
looks like you where right way back in April we almost hit that target of 110 and in your later comments you targeted 109 and 108 allot usually long. wandering if you could elaborate more on how to deduced this, i noticed that you mentioned tankan from the boj. How do you interpret this info. I have been studying the cot reports with for a while and wandering how you interpret the info?
  • #76,432
  • May 10, 2018 4:43pm May 10, 2018 4:43pm
H1 Lower Wicks...Call Me Silly

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  • #76,433
  • May 10, 2018 8:04pm May 10, 2018 8:04pm
looks like it might be bearish

JPY gained strength on all pairs, but it could be just a minor chop
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,434
  • May 10, 2018 11:53pm May 10, 2018 11:53pm
Is anyone else thinking 109.00 from here. maybe a small 109.5 double top for london first?
  • #76,435
  • May 11, 2018 12:49am May 11, 2018 12:49am
Quoting 4xjunkie
Is anyone else thinking 109.00 from here. maybe a small 109.5 double top for london first?
Do you really wanna short this? @109.5?
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Hourly tf.
Forcemeat can not be unrolled back...
  • #76,436
  • May 11, 2018 4:16am May 11, 2018 4:16am
Quoting nealpek
A little strategy from warren buffet. U/J long term ends are 125.00 and 75.00. Price is 110 now. It takes balls, but works. I don't think price will go back to 125.00 as US economy is not that strong, and Yen is not that weak. Take short positions as price moves higher, tuck in stop loss above 125.00 which price will never get to and wait. Eventually price will decline and downside is larger than potential upside. When will you be in profit? Who knows. But profit will be there eventually with no losses. Does anyone see price above 125.00? If not,...
Perhaps?!?!
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Trade what "Is", not what "If".
  • #76,437
  • May 11, 2018 4:30am May 11, 2018 4:30am
i'm short @109.27 TP 50pips SL 25pips

Good luck guys
Not losing money is almost good as making money
  • #76,438
  • May 11, 2018 6:19am May 11, 2018 6:19am
USD/JPY is pushing to the downside. The pair broke the support at 109.30 and is coming down to test 109.00 very soon.
  • #76,439
  • May 11, 2018 6:51am May 11, 2018 6:51am
below 109 is bearish, could go to 108

above 109 is still more bullish, can go to 110+
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,440
  • May 11, 2018 8:44am May 11, 2018 8:44am
Quoting catroot
{quote} Do you really wanna short this? @109.5? {image} Hourly tf.
Are you goint to try and buy at 109.00 have a great weekend.
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