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  • #801
  • Edited 9:11am Apr 10, 2018 8:50am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting zaghloul
Keep a look out for Turkish news. I’m fortunate to have Reuters Eikon. Economic news matters, but what matter more is political intervention in Turkish Central Bank policies. A few years ago the Turkish CB blew a few billion dollars in a matter of minutes to break everyone’s long position with crazy slippage. It didn’t help the currency at all, but it did hurt many traders. Erdogan is spiteful and stupid and might order the CB to do that again.
Thanks zaghloul you make a good point. I am maintaining my 5k sl (which is probably too tight for this pair.)

This pair is sick!
  • #802
  • Apr 15, 2018 3:56pm Apr 15, 2018 3:56pm
I have finally closed all my long positions on this bird. I am going to stay out for this week and see what happens.
  • #803
  • May 5, 2018 6:06pm May 5, 2018 6:06pm
I am setting up a trading plan for this pair to minimize risks.

Does anyone have any suggestions to help avoid bad triggers, namely on shorts?

I'll be attempting to capture the momentum in shorting the daily high and buying the daily low.

I'm seeing the down trends to be a bit precarious and mostly involve ranging.

Do you find it better not to trade this pair while it is down? I think I might start off riding the bulls only and working into the shorts later on. I can easily lose my sight of the forest after a few hours as winning is very emotionally distracting. ha
  • #804
  • May 7, 2018 4:23am May 7, 2018 4:23am
Dollar surge bringing emerging market rate cut cycle to a halt.
  • #805
  • May 7, 2018 4:32am May 7, 2018 4:32am
Dollar surge bringing emerging market rate cut cycle to a halt.
  • #806
  • May 7, 2018 9:55am May 7, 2018 9:55am
Quoting 2dollardog
I am setting up a trading plan for this pair to minimize risks. Does anyone have any suggestions to help avoid bad triggers, namely on shorts? I'll be attempting to capture the momentum in shorting the daily high and buying the daily low. I'm seeing the down trends to be a bit precarious and mostly involve ranging. Do you find it better not to trade this pair while it is down? I think I might start off riding the bulls only and working into the shorts later on. I can easily lose my sight of the forest after a few hours as winning is very emotionally...
Unfortunately nothing really work that well with this pair. Strangely though using SMA set @ 9 seems to work the best for me, especially on 5 minute charts.

Good luck and keep it green!
  • #807
  • May 7, 2018 1:54pm May 7, 2018 1:54pm
Hey guys, I live in Turkey and I can say you can confortably sell TRY. current deficit is horrible in Turkey now and Inflation is more than explained by government. Government spends their sources wrongly and because of bad economic conditios, they take a decision for election, they know economy would not be able to stand. Beside these bad economical base datas, government has poor political relations with USA in last years. USA has arrested asistant general manager of Halkbank which is turkish government bank because of violating USA's regulations for gold trading against Iran , and Turkey is now facing to face with big punishment. And Turkish current priminister is against interest because of İslamic reasons so Turkish central bank can't move freely and he probably win the election.. Turkish central bank is about to consuming its foreign exchange reserves because they can't hike interest freely, and as their low exchange reserves, they can'T control volatility of USD/TRY .

If we keep consider these condiitons, I think 4.26 is very optimistic rate for USD/TRY, I think rate should be more than 4.50 in short time.
  • #808
  • May 7, 2018 6:58pm May 7, 2018 6:58pm
Quoting SuperTiger
{quote} Unfortunately nothing really work that well with this pair. Strangely though using SMA set @ 9 seems to work the best for me, especially on 5 minute charts. Good luck and keep it green!
Thanks for chiming in, friend. I feel better knowing I'm not alone in that shorting struggle. I did notice that if I successfully capture a high open to short per normal trade setup and place the stop at be+1 once the trade is established, mostly I can just ride a trend until the trend changes to bullish without getting stopped out. Basically, just ride through all the choppy. Great in theory, but actual practice I dunno. ha

Today's trading session was awful. New rule: Don't trade on major bank holidays. ha
  • #809
  • May 7, 2018 11:43pm May 7, 2018 11:43pm
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} Thanks for chiming in, friend. I feel better knowing I'm not alone in that shorting struggle. I did notice that if I successfully capture a high open to short per normal trade setup and place the stop at be+1 once the trade is established, mostly I can just ride a trend until the trend changes to bullish without getting stopped out. Basically, just ride through all the choppy. Great in theory, but actual practice I dunno. ha Today's trading session was awful. New rule: Don't trade on major bank holidays. ha
I did well today. Got in at 4.26745 and will leave it open over night and through the week. We are getting ready to break through 4.28544.

You dont stop me Erodogan!
  • #810
  • May 9, 2018 2:04am May 9, 2018 2:04am
Erdogan says Lira Under Attack
  • #811
  • May 9, 2018 3:51am May 9, 2018 3:51am
Quoting 2dollardog
Erdogan says Lira Under Attack
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  • #812
  • May 9, 2018 12:32pm May 9, 2018 12:32pm
Quoting MisterWhite
{quote}{image}
Wow, right? Unfortunately, my risk parameters don't allow for shorts. I must wait. A few days ago Erdogan promised to pay off people's debts. I guess that made people pretty happy.
  • #813
  • May 9, 2018 10:56pm May 9, 2018 10:56pm
Double Bottom Reversal should kick in near my trade setup time. It's all on the dollar, I guess.

USDTRY H1
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  • #814
  • Edited 11:24pm May 9, 2018 11:03pm | Edited 11:24pm
As I suspected and pretty much right on time. I'm hoping the bull train comes back.

Lira Rally Loses Steam.... Bloomberg

edit: Erdogan Cabinet to Bypass Parliament to Expand His Powers - Bloomberg
  • #815
  • May 10, 2018 2:26am May 10, 2018 2:26am
Trade setup stopped out. I was able to flip. I broke my rules, but I"m not crying about it at the moment.
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  • #816
  • May 15, 2018 3:07am May 15, 2018 3:07am

  1. Lira drops to record low on central bank credibility worry
  2. Saxo Bank sees Turkish currency going to 4.50 per dollar

    Bloomberg

  • #817
  • May 15, 2018 11:04pm May 15, 2018 11:04pm
Investors Lose Their Appetite for Turkey after Erdogan Lunch ~ Financial Times
'Disbelief': Investors in Turkey stunned by Erdogan's fight with markets ~ Reuters

|He thinks the market is a bunch of speculators, and that is not his audience, his audience are ordinary people in Turkey and they need lower rates,” said a third asset manager, whose firm also attended the Erdogan meeting.

Yet Erdogan’s message to investors was firmly in line with in an interview with Bloomberg Television, where he also explicitly declared his intention to influence monetary policy despite the central bank’s independence. “Why the hell would you come to London, and basically send this message to institutional investors which is exactly what they did not want to hear?” he added.
  • #818
  • Edited 5:21am May 16, 2018 5:06am | Edited 5:21am
Quoting 2dollardog
Lira drops to record low on central bank credibility worry Saxo Bank sees Turkish currency going to 4.50 per dollar Bloomberg
Holy crap, it went vertical and hit 4.50. I guess the machines are duking it out now. Massive swings in price. I got out at 4.49.
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  • #819
  • May 16, 2018 5:37am May 16, 2018 5:37am
Quoting MisterWhite
{quote} Holy crap, it went vertical and hit 4.50. I guess the machines are duking it out now. Massive swings in price. I got out at 4.49. {image}
Good job, man!
I rode it up, too. Then, I managed to catch this. Matter of luck.

edit; I eliminated the link as it was affiliated with a forex paid site. I caught the recent short after news release of Turkey's central bank meeting with Erdogan (like that'll do any good. He'll probably detain them. ha)
  • #820
  • May 16, 2018 5:48am May 16, 2018 5:48am
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} I caught the recent short after news release of Turkey's central bank meeting with Erdogan (like that'll do any good. He'll probably detain them. ha)
Nice! I was too scared to hop into the short, much to my chagrin. I do have a EUR/TRY short open, that I was way early on. It’s beginning to correct. EUR/TRY is getting hammered worse.
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