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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #76,361
  • May 8, 2018 4:20pm May 8, 2018 4:20pm
My take on the reaction to the news today is that UJ has absorbed this and is carrying on as usual, in line with the current bullish (Dollar) trend.

That said, I'll be keeping a watchful eye out for the head and shoulders pattern forming on H4.
  • #76,362
  • May 8, 2018 4:38pm May 8, 2018 4:38pm
Quoting TakeUrPills
{quote} Could You please share your experience, what could these wicks mean in this particular spot? On first sight they are all in the same zone... hmm...
Thanks for asking. I will try my best to explain.

Many things to look at:

First we have seen that price has consolidated in this zone, bouncing off the lows with aggressive movements (wicks). This resulted in the demand zone being created.

Not only have the large wicks been created, but at the same time we see that price has made higher lows, this can be interrupted as a reverse head& shoulders pattern, we see this both on the 15 min chart and 1 hour chart. If we look on the 4 hour we see a regular H+S forming but we also have some other features which give us the bullish bias.

So far we have

Demand Zone
Bullish Candle formations
Bearish trend breaks, (see screen below)
On the Daily we see the formation of a bullish flag,
DXY has broken a rising channel, this normally is followed by a strong push higher.

In my post earlier Here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post11031941) and here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...0#post11034790) I lay out further support for a strong dollar.


Now I could be wrong and look like an idiot, but the odds I think our on my side.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY100.jpg Size: 264 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY101.jpg Size: 157 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY-1.jpg Size: 110 KB
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  • #76,363
  • May 8, 2018 4:58pm May 8, 2018 4:58pm
Quoting TakeUrPills
{quote} Could You please share your experience, what could these wicks mean in this particular spot? On first sight they are all in the same zone... hmm...
Upper wick indicates bearish pressure on the bullish market, whereas lower wick indicates bullish pressure on bearish market
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  • #76,364
  • May 8, 2018 5:14pm May 8, 2018 5:14pm
Inserted Video


this tells me to sell
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,365
  • May 8, 2018 7:59pm May 8, 2018 7:59pm
What the hell just happened last hour
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #76,366
  • May 8, 2018 8:15pm May 8, 2018 8:15pm
Looks like massive USD bullish move

109.9 is the next resistance

still could be a fake out
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,367
  • May 8, 2018 8:16pm May 8, 2018 8:16pm
Quoting darthPip
What the hell just happened last hour
My post, the market has read, hmmm
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #76,368
  • May 8, 2018 8:20pm May 8, 2018 8:20pm
i tooke a short...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM150905.png Size: 76 KB
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  • #76,369
  • May 8, 2018 8:22pm May 8, 2018 8:22pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjbpMay8livefu.JPG Size: 251 KB
  • #76,370
  • May 8, 2018 8:30pm May 8, 2018 8:30pm
Quoting MrPresident
Looks like massive USD bullish move 109.9 is the next resistance still could be a fake out
Looks like this candle took out H&S pattern which was starting to form on H4.I think its heading up to 112.
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #76,371
  • May 8, 2018 8:36pm May 8, 2018 8:36pm
Quoting coolmakina
i tooke a short... {image}
What is IMMED? The multimeter under the Range multimeter.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #76,372
  • May 8, 2018 8:37pm May 8, 2018 8:37pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW2.png Size: 69 KB


NFP and FOMC daily levels for past 12 announcements.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #76,373
  • May 8, 2018 8:54pm May 8, 2018 8:54pm
Quoting TooSlow
{image} NFP and FOMC daily levels for past 12 announcements.
Can you explain your chart? I'm 100% sure I understand it.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #76,374
  • May 8, 2018 9:15pm May 8, 2018 9:15pm
Quoting darthPip
{quote} Looks like this candle took out H&S pattern which was starting to form on H4.I think its heading up to 112.
Why 112?

110 is difficult overcome on the daily chart and then there is 110.2 and 110.5

111 would be much harder
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #76,375
  • May 8, 2018 9:36pm May 8, 2018 9:36pm
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} Why 112? 110 is difficult overcome on the daily chart and then there is 110.2 and 110.5 111 would be much harder
Extrapolation.110 might get knocked out by weekend.

This bull run has another 4 weeks or so I think Lets see
Your friendly neighbourhood Sith
  • #76,376
  • May 8, 2018 11:37pm May 8, 2018 11:37pm
Quoting darthPip
What the hell just happened last hour
I am bewildered too.
  • #76,377
  • May 9, 2018 12:19am May 9, 2018 12:19am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} What is IMMED? The multimeter under the Range multimeter.
IMMED = in the immediate, recent, now,
and by the way, i closed the position with +10pips.
If you don't know how to earn money, don't loose it.
  • #76,378
  • May 9, 2018 12:27am May 9, 2018 12:27am
I went long at 109.48. stop at 109.35 see what happens.
  • #76,379
  • May 9, 2018 4:10am May 9, 2018 4:10am
The sellers at 109.910/110.010. Keep in tune down 20 up 10.
Keep the Lights on then you can catch the rise from the dark.
  • #76,380
  • May 9, 2018 4:46am May 9, 2018 4:46am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Aaven, the timing of your reply gets me to chuckle. As 3-month treasuries, today, have made a new 10 year high, sitting @ 1.884 I was bullish on USDJPY but as I wake up and see the pair has stalled, at this point I can't be 100% sure which way the market wants to go. For this reason, at this point it is a wait and see type game. As for the screenshot, its showing, at points when the pairs hit extreme on either side, due to the action on the US futures market. The lower line is inverted to show this correlation. The pair will more then likely...
Thanks Master Yoda...
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