Monday
GBP BANK HOLDIAY
AUD - Retail Sales m/m - last print exceeded expectations a lot, although forecast for this month is showing a contraction. Looking for another solid green print to justify holding my current long AUD positions looking for a target of R61.
NZD - Inflation Expectations - fairly stable over the last few releases. A positive print here may help to provide a basis for a more hawkish tone on Wed's NZD Monetary Policy Statement.
CNY - Trade Balance - this is on my radar due to the ongoing trade war between US and China. Actual print not likely to influence discussions, but might have implications on USD/Risk on/off. Watching for US weakness.
Tuesday
FRENCHBANK HOLIDAY
AUD - Annual Budget Release - will review for outlook on global economy and how it will affect AUD decisions, along with any major infrastructure projects and overall outlook of growth.
USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Speaking on Monetary Policy Influences on Global Financial Conditions…. Will watch for any hints on upcoming rate decision or any speak on inflation/job data.
Wednesday
USD + CAD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - PPI/Core PPI - With the Fed stating that they have achieved their inflation target, will look to this to see if this prints red which would likely be a big shock to the dollar. Muted effect if it meets expectations. Could also be negative implications if it prints green as there is concern that the Fed could allow inflation to run over 2%...
NZD - RATE DECISION - Widely expected to leave rates unchanged. Recent jobs data has been positive, and lower NZ dollar may have had a positive effect on the economy. Will look for any hawkish comments to push NZD north from S38 and .7000
CNY - CPI/PPI - String of lower than expected prints as of late. Will watch this for any impact on AUD/NZD positions.
Thursday
CHF/FRENCH/BANK HOLIDAY
GBP - Super Thursday RATE DECISION - will watch this, however will not be trading the pound due to concerns over Brexit etc.
USD - CPI/Core CPI - With the Fed stating that they have achieved their inflation target, will look to this to see if this prints red which would likely be a big shock to the dollar. Muted effect if it meets expectations. Could also be negative implications if it prints green as there is concern that the Fed could allow inflation to run over 2%...
Friday
CAD - Employment Change/Unemployment Rate - Mixed bag of prints over the last few months although I believe the labour market is heating up. Thinking there may be a surprise positive print for the unemployment rate.
EUR - Draghi Speaks - After the spate of negative news releases around the EUR in the last 2 weeks, looking to see if the Central Banks believes this is temporary or if this is projected to continue for the medium term. If this is overall dovish, will watch for the EUR to sink even further.
Overall outlook: Taking a wait and see approach to this week. Still have a lot of dollar shorts open, and leaning towards a correction for the US dollar vs AUD, NZD, and CAD, driven by US exhaustion (even if temporary) and trade war fears, along with positive/hawkish releases/tones from its counterparts.
GBP BANK HOLDIAY
AUD - Retail Sales m/m - last print exceeded expectations a lot, although forecast for this month is showing a contraction. Looking for another solid green print to justify holding my current long AUD positions looking for a target of R61.
NZD - Inflation Expectations - fairly stable over the last few releases. A positive print here may help to provide a basis for a more hawkish tone on Wed's NZD Monetary Policy Statement.
CNY - Trade Balance - this is on my radar due to the ongoing trade war between US and China. Actual print not likely to influence discussions, but might have implications on USD/Risk on/off. Watching for US weakness.
Tuesday
FRENCHBANK HOLIDAY
AUD - Annual Budget Release - will review for outlook on global economy and how it will affect AUD decisions, along with any major infrastructure projects and overall outlook of growth.
USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Speaking on Monetary Policy Influences on Global Financial Conditions…. Will watch for any hints on upcoming rate decision or any speak on inflation/job data.
Wednesday
USD + CAD - Crude Oil Inventories
USD - PPI/Core PPI - With the Fed stating that they have achieved their inflation target, will look to this to see if this prints red which would likely be a big shock to the dollar. Muted effect if it meets expectations. Could also be negative implications if it prints green as there is concern that the Fed could allow inflation to run over 2%...
NZD - RATE DECISION - Widely expected to leave rates unchanged. Recent jobs data has been positive, and lower NZ dollar may have had a positive effect on the economy. Will look for any hawkish comments to push NZD north from S38 and .7000
CNY - CPI/PPI - String of lower than expected prints as of late. Will watch this for any impact on AUD/NZD positions.
Thursday
CHF/FRENCH/BANK HOLIDAY
GBP - Super Thursday RATE DECISION - will watch this, however will not be trading the pound due to concerns over Brexit etc.
USD - CPI/Core CPI - With the Fed stating that they have achieved their inflation target, will look to this to see if this prints red which would likely be a big shock to the dollar. Muted effect if it meets expectations. Could also be negative implications if it prints green as there is concern that the Fed could allow inflation to run over 2%...
Friday
CAD - Employment Change/Unemployment Rate - Mixed bag of prints over the last few months although I believe the labour market is heating up. Thinking there may be a surprise positive print for the unemployment rate.
EUR - Draghi Speaks - After the spate of negative news releases around the EUR in the last 2 weeks, looking to see if the Central Banks believes this is temporary or if this is projected to continue for the medium term. If this is overall dovish, will watch for the EUR to sink even further.
Overall outlook: Taking a wait and see approach to this week. Still have a lot of dollar shorts open, and leaning towards a correction for the US dollar vs AUD, NZD, and CAD, driven by US exhaustion (even if temporary) and trade war fears, along with positive/hawkish releases/tones from its counterparts.
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