EURUSD

Very bullish fundamentals
Buyside target looking a maybe
Always be loose

Any traders here
Buyside looking good at gbp pmi

A tight labour market, rising inflation - what else does the Fed need to stick to its course? That is exactly what it did last night. In the end it was not a major surprise for the market that the Fed left the key rate unchanged at the meeting without a press conference but made positive comments on the outlook and further rate hikes. The market will have to get used to the fact that in order to prevent an economic overheating interest rates in the US will continue to rise and that the Fed’s target corridor will have reached 2.25-2.50% by year-end. As a result the argument of rate differentials will become increasingly relevant for the FX market - both for the industrialised nations and for the Emerging Markets. As a consequence economic data is likely to become more important again. And the data might support USD again ahead of the weekend and cement EUR/USD in the area of 1.20 for now.

It is not a drama but it illustrates that the ECB will remain expansionary for a long time yet. Its argument of “solid growth and thus medium term price increases” is crumbling slightly. The Q1 GDP data for the euro zone illustrated that growth momentum is easing slightly. And today’s inflation data for April is unlikely to constitute a valid argument supporting the euro bulls either. Even if the overall rate is likely to rise to 1.5% as a result of rising energy prices the core rate will fall to 0.9%. The disagreements surrounding the EU budget on the other hand make it clear to us that there are still major differences within the EU, and that the europhoria following the election of President Emmanuel Macron was exaggerated. In other words: I see no convincing reasons supporting the euro at present.

The USD has somewhat been on a roller-coaster ride in the wake of the FOMC. However, the weakness in the USD was then sharply reversed as markets digested the Fed’s reference to inflation having moved close to 2% versus previous rhetoric that inflation continued to run below 2%, while trade since then has mainly consisted of the USD’s major counterparts nursing losses.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.1925 (0.845 BLN), 1.1950 (1.0 BLN), 1.1975-80 (0.963 BLN), 1.2000 (0.520 BLN) and 1.2010-12 (1.1 BLN).

Waiting for my second target @ 1.1915 (2018 low), almost there .

I hold my shorts also.

I think we can buy more at 1.2050 maybe 1.2080 after the big drop.

Sell 1:1987 SL 1:2007 Edit: SL set at BE

Euro is heavenly bought on h1...buying 1,199x and buying below as well

Very suprised by this fall as h1/h4 and even lower tf as m5 have shitload of buyers...waiting waiting for the right trigger

Whithout Higher High we should see new Lower Low

Price touched daily 200ema. Good r there. I am staying short

Want to know where the dollar is going? Watch out for China

The dollar has recovered markedly in recent days. While other economies are struggling to cope with the slowdown, the US economy remains fairly stable, as is inflation. The Federal reserve intends to raise rates next month. In these circumstances, it is not surprising that the dollar is showing better results in recent weeks.
In the short term, however, the growth of the dollar may be suspended, experts say, interviewed by Bloomberg.

While Friday's wage figures will be an obvious short-term catalyst for the dollar's direction, traders also understand that China needs to be watched. At first glance, it is obvious why the dollar succeeded. Growth in the US remains above the trend, and the FED is on the way to raising rates, while in Europe and other countries the figures continue to disappoint. It is not surprising that the dollar has reached its highest levels in a few months. Of course, 2017 provided ample evidence that interest rate differentials are not always relevant to the foreign exchange market. However, last year the market caught fire with the idea of a European economic boom, which is now quickly removed in the rear-view mirror. But ultimately, the economic slowdown so far has had little impact on the ECB's policies (or expectations). To some extent, the strength of the dollar this year represents a favorable symbiosis of improvements in the economy, aversion to risk in the rest of the world, and positioning. Although some of these factors may be controversial.

While US trade hawks have gone to Beijing to negotiate, currency traders should be looking out for China. The recent appreciation of the USD/CNY rate by the People's Bank of China has attracted some attention, although to some extent this story looks bloated, Bloomberg writes: the Chinese cynically allowed the yuan to strengthen against the dollar before the bilateral meeting. To date, the dollar against the yuan has been surprisingly restrained. The fact is that the Chinese currency is at its highest level in almost two years against the basket of currencies. There is a General stability of the RMB exchange rate against the dollar.

If negotiations with the US fail, China may well weaken its currency against the basket in the coming weeks. This could lead to a sharper appreciation of the dollar/yuan. The latter will provoke an even greater overall strengthening of the dollar.

Of course, there is no guarantee that this will happen. The authorities may choose stability because there is too much uncertainty about bilateral trade relations. If so, the dollar rally could end. Hence, a higher dollar/yuan exchange rate may not be sufficient to strengthen the United States dollar against a wide range of currencies, but it is probably a necessary condition.

Thanks Plenov, your posts are always helpful for fundamental analysis

My system says EU drops to 1.1902 before going up to 1.2031 .Current price 1.1984

Very mixed fundamentals last night. No successful trades. Small wins here and there still added up nicely but no major edges taken.

Eu price tested middle Bollinger Band and reversed on H4 . Sell 1:1980 SL 1:2008

big sellers don’t want to book their profit at the end oF NY SESSION do they beleive to more drop
it is not good signal for buying
but over sold by RSI. in h4 and even daily chart is obvious

Price action was predominantly quiet amid tentativeness ahead of the key US jobs data, which contained most major pairs near the prior session’s levels. As such, EUR/USD traded sideways and just shy of 1.2000.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.1900 (0.970 BLN), 1.1950 (0.246 BLN), 1.2000 (1.3 BLN) and 1.2025 (0.544 BLN).

Hoping to hit my second target @ 1.1915 (2018 low), today at the US nonfarm payrolls.

https://blog.ransquawk.com/market-news/ransquawk-eu-open-rundown-04-05-18/ ??

Sell 1:1967 SL 1:1987

#Buy EUR/USD 1.19616 -> Target 1.20xxx

That a nice target for more shorts.

I think we going to drop hard.

Holding shorts to lower targets.

If its a bad NFP I close positions.