EURUSD

Have a look what Silver is doing ... Oversold situation

Invert h&s buy e 78% gartley?

may be but can be sold any further still ,test tl 15.44 very ok before a reaction , even bo to previous low 14.32 ok & extreme cases 8.6 ,not considering yet , otherwise if all ok target goes to 25 - 35.50, no decision yet or play either sides . can be played now ranges 15-20 only . Take care , fontu

In April, the dollar rose by 2%, this is its best month since the end of 2016, when the world learned that Donald Trump will become President.

Prospects for the U.S.currency began to improve markedly in mid-April, when the dollar against the basket of six currencies is in the minus 2.7% compared to the rate at the beginning of the year. Since then, it has managed to reduce losses to -0.32%.

"The sentiment is changing in favor of the dollar faster than speculators have time to adapt," says mark Chandler, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Meanwhile, the Euro, which accounts for a significant portion of the dollar index, fell by 2% in April. After a dizzying takeoff in 2017, the Eurozone economy has shifted to a lower gear, and the latest statistics indicate that the second quarter will be no better than the first. Traders and some economists considered the comments of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last week "cautious" and "pessimistic," which also increased the pressure on the single currency.

The British pound is also under pressure and also in the red by 2% by the end of April. Last week London disappointed the markets with a weak report on GDP for the first quarter, and the Bank of England Governor mark Carney has sown doubts about a rate hike at the may meeting.

On the other side of the Atlantic the wind also changed. The Federal reserve is likely to raise rates two or three more times this year amid stable economic growth and further tightening of labor market conditions. This theory is confirmed by Friday's report, which showed an increase in wages by 2.7% year – on-year-this is the highest figure for the last ten years. Derek Halpenny, head of European markets at MUFG, described labor cost data as "compelling evidence that the tightening of the labor market has finally led to a crackdown on wage inflation."

Meanwhile, the improvement of forecasts for the us economy entails the sale of government bonds: yield on 10-year securities this month for some time rose above the mark of 3% for the first time since 2014. The April increase in yield on government bonds resulted in an increase in the yield spread between us and German government debt – traders closely monitor this indicator, which has already reached 2.383% compared to 2.283% at the beginning of April and 2% at the beginning of the year.

"Positive macroeconomic data on the USA due to the stimulus of fiscal policy contrasts with problems in other countries," explained Hans Redeker, strategist at Morgan Stanley.

In the coming month, analysts advise to pay attention to the publication of the index of private consumption, which is taken into account by the Federal Reserve in the formation of monetary policy. The Central Bank will decide on Wednesday's rates, but statesmans are likely to postpone the increase until June.

Never see that many bullish accumulation failing

Once it triggers....it will be one way up

Today should be a quiet day amid the absence of participants in the region for Labour Day, which will also be followed by the numerous closures across the European continent today. As such, the USD index held on to recent gains approaching the 92.000 which has kept its main counterparts subdued, with EUR/USD below the 1.2100 level where it had met resistance during US trade.

EUR/USD is breaching several major downside technical levels on the way to testing a 1.2035-30 Fib area, including 1.2055 and 1.2050 barriers.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.2020 (0.712BLN), 1.2050 (0.368BLN), 1.2150 (0.539 BLN) and 1.2200 (1.4 BLN).

Just closed half of a position @ 1.2040 and looking forward for second target @ 1.1915 (2018 low).

so test the last limit for the bull actually , breaks or not breaks that level is one signal for next action & even both cases a good correction up to retest again possible .that is pressure down still . watching the level 1.1960!!, signal up goes to 1.2015/36/66 & confirmation 1.2138> breaks up with intact bull limit price may stop at around 1.2333 and if limit broken then 1.2214 text to continue down or even go top 1.2334-2400 will favor a year long bear & sit comfort.. take care , fontu

Judging by 3 time frame all together, I assume a long trend about to start...

M15 Chart


M30 Chart


H1 Chart


Yet, it still short trend bias, though

The USD index took a breather from yesterday’s advances but remained above the 92.00 level. This provided mild respite for its major counterpart with EUR/USD just about holding on to the 1.2000 handle.

Today we have the Eurozone GDP at 10:00 BST and Fed Interest Rate Decision plus its Monetary Policy Statement at 19:00 BST.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.1925 (0.503 BLN), 1.1975-80 (0.813 BLN), 1.2010-12 (1.1 BLN) and 1.2200 (0.794 BLN).

Waiting for my second target @ 1.1915 (2018 low).

Pending sell @ 1:1991 TP1 1:1950, TP2 1:1920 SL 1:2020

Looking for new buy opportunities during/after FED

1,20xx seems to have good buyers so far

and USD needs a retrace on every pairs


edit : support gone

still waiting for fed, nothing before

2 hours until h4 closes...if above 1,2000 i'll go small long

poising breaks the limit for bull soon & so deciding the top & already started the correction down last before resume great bull again . minimum target 1.1553 to 1.11/2. or near bottom again. important sr 1.1660 , 1.1360. Go comfort medium term > rest of the year & more just . may do correct at 1.1900 /1.1700 towards 1.21/22 ok .Take care , fontu .

1:1920 next

Went long now at 1 19 90 SL 54

Stoped. . . the usual fake RB game/.....

The PPZ (price pivot zone) at 1.1935 seems to be holding against this and a retrace toward 1.2068 seems likely. Any thoughts on this?

Ouch

Easy way to look at it Sellers still in control STOP TRTING TO PINPOINT. A bottom.edge. WAIT until bottom edge is put in

Yes here's one. EU looking short for today's Europe London and us sessions tonight. Sell only. UNTIL bottom edge

Entry of around 1.20, Target of around 1.1900 but can see 1.1875 being taken today. (Spot prices)

Could be a very VERY nice sell off. BUT also a nice buy afterwards

See how it plays out but right now 2 hours from open it's looking short. So I'll be looking for shorts from open.

For buying we would need bottom edge put in.

I don't care if it goes 100 pips up from this price point . I won't be buying.

https://gyazo.com/b5005b198dae7eb3348dfe6aac620ffb

Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that the Euro has not yet exhausted the potential of the decline to the U.S. dollar.

Over the past ten days, the EURUSD rate fell by more than 450 points, and now the pair looks somewhat oversold, however, the currency strategists of Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that we should not talk about the end of the downward movement. The Bank maintains a short position in the Euro/dollar from 1.2378 with a target of 1.15 and a stop at 1.26 and lists the following reasons to stay in a short position:

1. statistics from the Eurozone recently signal a weakening of the economy, with the results of April, we can say that the more likely cause is not bad weather, but too strong Euro.
2. the American Corporation will soon begin the repatriation of capital accumulated in other jurisdictions.
3. the smoothness of the yield curve on U.S. bonds means that foreign investors will only consider non-hedged investments in them. The slope of The Eurozone bond yield curve suggests that investors will hedge currency risk when buying bonds here.
4. the growth of business investment in the US paves the way for productivity and wage growth.
5. a deal to modify the North American free trade agreement (NAFTA) in the next few weeks will strengthen the U.S. negotiating position in the trade dispute with China.
6. the ongoing process of deleveraging in China (reduction in the level of loans) will limit the Central Bank's ability to raise rates after the FED
7. the fiscal risk premium in the us dollar is already too high.
8. the position of speculators in the Euro looks too big, especially if we take into account the divergence between it and the movement of the exchange rate.