Hello Ricx,
*
I am assuming you have ignored the most recent bars on the right (I have put a cross below) and that your first point connecting is the third most recent bar -- otherwise you have drawn your line wrongly since your first point should always be the most recent support (look from right to left). But even if this is the case, your demand line was still drawn incorrectly. Please see where I pointed too below -- that is a more valid point 2 for your demand line.
*
Otherwise, your steps are largely in order except for the way you set your stop limit. Your projected profit was 180 pips -- divide it by 3 and you get 60 (I really think one-third would be neater than 33%). These 60 pips should be added to the same open of the candle you used for PP when you are calculating SL point for this short signal. I notice you chose another candle's open to add the 60 pips to... no no, add it instead to the very same candle you used for PP.
*
You mentioned something about choosing the candle that is not touching the supply line... I think you have read this out of context - if indeed you read this in the example in page 1 of the stop loss document. There, Mouteki was using the example to highlight the point that candles in consolidation should be ignored. Since both candles are having the same low, it implies consolidation; Mouteki said to choose the one not touching the supply line -- this is correct, but I believe he was using the most obvious way of referring to the candle -- it has *nothing* to do with the supply line. If you want to put it another way, I think he would have chosen the same candle (the left one of the 2 sharing the same low) even if neither was touching the supply line.
*
As for the spread, yea, consider your SL 60 + 3 = 63 pips instead. Note though that if this is a long signal, your SL should remain at 60 pips since you would be looking at the bid price when closing out this long.
Thank you very much
this is why im so liking this forum peoples are helping each others, i must confest to public im not smart and i have weird perspective on doing things, so im oftenly needs someone else to guide me like this 
as in offline world i have my wife guide me to keep me on course all the time she's my angel. Thank you jumper, and all of you here Thanks,
Ricky
PS: ill be posting more scenarios
- #2,286
- Oct 1, 2006 10:05pm Oct 1, 2006 10:05pm
You should be looking at both. The problem that seems to occur is that in the usd/jpy pair, the first BUY signal was from way back, and then a 2nd BUY signal, which you specifically probably didn't get into. You've now longed this pair based on a new BUY signal, which in my opinion only (and I have been wrong many many times), will probably be a failed Mouteki trade, and you may think this method isn't worth looking into.
Just looking at some trades I've made and some backtesting, I think we should not only look at recent points, but go back to prior trendlines to see what has happened in the recent past to get a picture. Plus we know in our minds (psychological) that the 118/119 level in usd/jpy seems hard to break going up. Not saying it won't, but if it does break then Mouteki would be right. I just would not go long at this point. Even if the support breaks, it may just be a retracement (which can get you some pips by selling), but it may or may not be a trend reversal. But, I'd rather be short when the trend breaks and "hope" it is a reversal in the long run. Just my thoughts.
I am glad this setup is occuring so we can see what happens in a situation such as this. The eur/jpy has a similar setup. Maybe the jpy crosses are wierd though. Can't wait to see what ends up happening.
- #2,287
- Oct 1, 2006 10:40pm Oct 1, 2006 10:40pm
Mouteki,<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>
What are your plans for this thread?<o></o>
It’s been mentioned that you cannot reveal some of your material because you are under contract? Can you please elaborate? <o></o>
What's the deal with the 2 PIP Spread thread that disappeared?<o></o>
<o></o>
Ok I feel like an ass for questioning you but were not really getting anywhere with this and one of your responses leads me to believe you won't or can't continue. I defended you when others were posting that your material was really already published. My thinking at the time was you were going to reveal what works for you so that would make it original. If that's the case why string us along? I'm sure you've read the hundreds of questions addressed to you but for some reason have chosen not to respond. I know you’re busy. We all are. Most of the questions could be summed up and answered in a matter of minutes. This would also cut down on the number or members asking the same questions over and over. I've read them and I'm pretty sure you have too.
<o></o>
Popular questions<o></o>
News Release, how do you trade them?<o></o>
Filters, you posted that you don't follow the system mechanically. Please elaborate?<o></o>
Money Management, I understand this is tied into the Filters, Entries and Stops that you use, not the system you posted. Again please elaborate.<o></o>
<o></o>
Either way thanks for everything you've done so far but it would be nice to get the whole story. It would also be nice to know if we should be waiting for more material, answers to our questions or if you have other plans what ever they may be.
In the past the PF spawned from the FF. They were upfront with us so we weren’t all wasting our time.
Please don't respond with "When the Time Comes" or any of the other responce's you have used to dodge questions in the past. It's time to be honest.
Joe
></o>What are your plans for this thread?<o
></o>It’s been mentioned that you cannot reveal some of your material because you are under contract? Can you please elaborate? <o
></o>What's the deal with the 2 PIP Spread thread that disappeared?<o
></o><o
></o>Ok I feel like an ass for questioning you but were not really getting anywhere with this and one of your responses leads me to believe you won't or can't continue. I defended you when others were posting that your material was really already published. My thinking at the time was you were going to reveal what works for you so that would make it original. If that's the case why string us along? I'm sure you've read the hundreds of questions addressed to you but for some reason have chosen not to respond. I know you’re busy. We all are. Most of the questions could be summed up and answered in a matter of minutes. This would also cut down on the number or members asking the same questions over and over. I've read them and I'm pretty sure you have too.
<o
></o>Popular questions<o
></o>News Release, how do you trade them?<o
></o>Filters, you posted that you don't follow the system mechanically. Please elaborate?<o
></o>Money Management, I understand this is tied into the Filters, Entries and Stops that you use, not the system you posted. Again please elaborate.<o
></o><o
></o>Either way thanks for everything you've done so far but it would be nice to get the whole story. It would also be nice to know if we should be waiting for more material, answers to our questions or if you have other plans what ever they may be.
In the past the PF spawned from the FF. They were upfront with us so we weren’t all wasting our time.
Please don't respond with "When the Time Comes" or any of the other responce's you have used to dodge questions in the past. It's time to be honest.
Joe
- #2,289
- Oct 2, 2006 12:21am Oct 2, 2006 12:21am
Thanks for ur reply. I am using Streamster from Marketiva. All of these times i have heard bout Stop&reverse signal, anyway i dont understand it very well. Is it somekind of indicator that we can attach on our chart? If it does, can i attach to my streamster?
I still dont understand SAR mode. Could u explain?
I attach with this post. Pls help me analyze this eur/jpy. I am expecting it will go down. but it seems it tends to go up. Should i wait or should i close it?
By SAR, I just mean... alright, take this example. You were in a long cable trade. You see GBP/USD bounce from a support of 1.8500 and thus you decided to go long, with your SL set at 1.8500. But alas, the price went up from 1.8500 to 1.8520 and then subsequently down to 1.8450. This support at 1.8500 that you thought was substantially strong has been broken! So now, this 1.8500 may have possibly become a resistance (instead of the prior support). So after you got stopped out of your long cable, you do a "stop-and-reverse" and go short instead, putting your SL now at the new 1.8500 resistance level. That is what I meant by the stop-and-reverse.
In the case of Mouteki method, let's say you got a Mouteki long signal from the break of the downward sloping supply line. You happily went long but after several price bars, a new Mouteki short signal was generated -- it seems that the upward sloping demand line was now broken! So what do you do in this case? Well, you analyse the situation carefully (no, this isn't crap) and decide firstly if you want to exit your current long or if you want to hold on till you reach PP or hit SL. Then, you decide if your new short signal is worth taking. If you think the short is worth taking and the long you were in is no longer valid, then exit the long, do a "stop-and-reverse" and go short.
In the chart you attached, you can see that the demand line is rather steep. This signifies a strong uptrend and if you want to take the short signal and go short, it would likely be a "temporary trade" in that you are trying to ride the slight retracement of a healthy trend. As you have often heard, people like to go with the general trend direction. In this case, the general direction is up - so if you go short, you have to be nimble enough to get out as soon as price looks like it is heading north again. That said, if price retraces too much, it may indeed mean the uptrend is broken.
If you are already long in the example, yes, I would close it since up seems more likely than down here. I am personally in a fresh long too. BUT, this is NOT professional advice and just my INDIVIDUAL OPINION. Price may come down so please don't crush me with blame and guilt if I turn out wrong.
I am JuMPeR. 
- #2,291
- Oct 2, 2006 12:43am Oct 2, 2006 12:43am
I don't post too often, though I think about it......anyways, who's ready for a buy on this pair?? I have a couple bullish signals and would like to see what you lovely forex geniuses have to say. First, on the 1H chart, I have a MA 5/13/62 cross thing going on, yea yea yea....I don't really like the technicals TOO much. Now of course this is the Mouteki Trading thread, so of course I have to mention the possible 4H candle closing supply line. I need to learn how to post pics of my chart setups sometime.....anyways, any response would be appreciated. Jumper, since you are dominating these threads with wisdom (in my opinion) I would particularly care to hear what you have to say.
In my opinion, GBP/JPY is messed up again. There was a rather clear short trade last Friday that I went for personally (and got stopped out at +10). But subsequently, price shot up again (because of "carry-traders" -- my guess). Horace mentioned earlier that price is still whipping in a very broad range -- you can see that the price drop last Friday failed to break this range (around 220-222.3). So if you are going pure Mouteki, then I would personally stay out of this pair for now. If you want to play range, then sell at the top, buy at the bottom. If you want to play breakout, then wait for price to ultimately come out of the range.
Just my take.
I am JuMPeR.
