EURUSD

There's one other haha. Damn look at this, there was one more wave down to come from the preceding move. Hopefully locked at 88.6% Here! I need this to run into profits soon so I can cover, take a breather and go take care of my other business.

USD index remained firm following the recent advances and higher yields and is in close proximity to the 91.00 level. The strength in the greenback saw its counterparts languish in which EUR/USD briefly slipped below 1.2200.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.2200 (1.1 BLN), 1.2235 (0.329 BLN), 1.2250 (0.481 BLN) and 1.2345-55 (3.3BLN).

Note - another 3.3BLN @ 1.2200 strike expires on Thursday, just after the ECB policy meeting.

Closed one of the shorts at target 1.2200 and widen the target for my last short from 1.2115 to 1.2040, near the 200-day moving average.

Get ready for a powerful dollar rally!

The growth of the yield of U.S. bonds may provoke the growth of the dollar

Profitability
Dollar bulls, finally find support from the growth in U.S. interest rates as the yield of Treasury bonds rises to the highest level since 2014. The us dollar has set a three-month high today, with yields on 10-year debt rising to 3%, a key benchmark, as many have acknowledged. Some observers believe that breaking this mark potentially opens the door to much higher levels.

Two markets – forex (foreign exchange) and debt – are finally moving more synchronously again. Last year, there was a complete reshuffle, which put many experts at an impasse. The 60-day correlation between the dollar index and the yield of 10-year bonds has again become positive. This was the first time since 2016. That is, earlier, in recent months, it was in negative territory. This shift was welcome news for investors who are rebounding the dollar.

Eurizon SLJ Capital's chief Executive officer, Stephen Jan, expects the dollar to recover against currencies such as the Euro this quarter, given that it no longer considers the dollar to be overvalued and sees the US economy as robust.

"Profitability is very important," says Jen, a former economist at the international monetary Fund, the world Bank, and the Federal reserve. — But the mere fact that the yield of 10-year bonds is growing does not necessarily mean that the dollar will also grow. However, I think that at the moment we have a situation where the dollar can get good support (from this factor)".

Jen expects the dollar to rise to $1.17 this quarter, from around $ 1.22 now. The single European currency comes out of the rally with a length of five blocks. Although the recovery of the world economy has raised the Euro against the us dollar, growth in Europe may slow down, says Jen. The Eurozone's composite purchasing managers index remained unchanged in April, signaling that growth in the region will continue, albeit at a slower pace.

Positioning
Market positioning suggests that traders may not be ready for such a scenario. Hedge funds and other large speculators hold a record net long position in the Euro, according to data from the US commodity futures trading Commission.

These investors expects a "painful trade" if the dollar will recover, says Hugo Lancioni, head of currency trading at Neuberger Berman Group LLC. He expects the dollar to rebound 2-3% this quarter.

"I don't think this will be something unusual, but this is what investors are now likely not ready – said Lancioni, which is involved in the management of assets in the amount of 299 billion dollars. "I feel like a lot of people jumped on this train a little late."

Lencioni explains the possible rise of the dollar as a result of higher yields in the U.S., which will attract new capital into the country. Like Jen, Lancsoni expects the strength of the dollar to find a brighter expression relative to the Euro, with the gap in yields between short-term rates in the US and Germany favouring the dollar.

Policy
Jen's conviction that the dollar will rise above all to the Euro is backed by a foreign trade nuance. China and other Asian countries probably do not want to allow their currencies to depreciate, given the renewed attention of the trump administration to currency manipulation, the expert explained.

"We have this additional political factor," he said. "In fact, this is pushing the economy into the background, but if you think about interest rates in the US and the slowdown in Europe, it makes the Euro/dollar exchange rate change more understandable."

I agree to what is being said as part of fundamental analysis. But most of the technical indicators point otherwise to EURUSD in buy zone. It is expected to rise although not above 1.2350 level this month. I may be wrong, as forex market is very unpredictable. It would be a big move if the net positions change in wake of any change in fundamental analysis. History has it, if the fundamentals don't match the technical, we have whipsaw moves which I call 'forex-quake'

Can you please post any eurusd chart with those indicators that predict what you are saying?

What indicators predict that?

Thanks. Regards.

Jos

Gimmie a D . O . L . L . A

just check usdx , may correct 90.26 to 89.78 before further try up & so eu may breaks limit up for 1.2334 before further down . take care , fontu

So we are bouncing from the bottom of the range around 1.218x and looking to test the 4H MA

E/U price is testing quarter close lvl @ 1:21915 It is very good opportunity to take trade (short or long Above this lvl = Long but confirmation will be a raise above today daily open lvl.

just charts , watching . take care , fontu

The USD index continues to piggy-back rising US Treasury giving it further impetus and has reclaimed 91.000+ status as a result, with fair resistance around 91.526 back on the radar ahead of 91.751 and a few more upside chart levels before early 2018 highs.

EUR/USD is pivoting 1.2200 where huge option expiries roll off on ECB day tomorrow (3+ bln), with Fib support around 1.2173 still underpinning the pair, but the upside capped ahead of 1.2250.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.2220 (0.977BLN) and 1.2290 (0.596 BLN).

Note - another EUR 3.3bln 1.2200 strike expires on Thursday, just after the ECB policy meeting.

Holding one short down to 1.2040, near the 200-day moving average.

Keep short indeed.

Iam targeting 1.19 ore maybe lower.

Let see what Dragi brings tomorrow but with bad economic data i think he will take the euro down.

Just watch out of the buyers on h4, h1 currently....and some lurking on m5/m15

It just needs a trigger once enough sellers would have been eaten

The Euro continues to fall, but experts are not waiting for the disaster

The U.S. Dollar has been rising for several days against the Euro, Yen, the Pound Sterling and other currencies amid a continued increase in US Treasuries yields.

Ten-year us Treasuries yields rose above 3% on Tuesday for the first time since 2014. The market is close to the maximum of July 2011 — 3.047%. Growing inflationary expectations, as well as statements by a number of representatives of the Federal reserve last week increased fears that the us Central Bank will raise rates at a faster pace.

"The yield of 3% did not come from nowhere - the fed talked about the increase in inflation since the beginning of the year and prepared the market for a rate hike," says analyst at London Capital Group Jasper Lawler. "The easing of geopolitical tensions, especially the reduction in the fears of a trade war, allowed traders to focus entirely on the factors that point to the support of the dollar, namely, the high yield bonds."

FX market strategists at Scotiabank look at the Euro/dollar pair in a neutral/bearish key, noting that support is expected in the area of 1.2045/1.2145 in the short term.

"EUR/USD remains weak, being close to yesterday's low and below the wider trading range established since the beginning of the year. There was no major European data this morning. EUR is weakening ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting (no changes are expected)," experts say.

They note that the Euro keeps yesterday's range just below 1.22. The breakout of support in the middle of 1.22 this week leaves the medium-term picture less reliable than expected in the Bank. However, given the extensive work done by the market at the beginning of the year, the final bearish breakthrough is still missing, according to experts. They see a stronger and more long-term support in the zone of the 1.2045/1.2145 at the moment. Intraday support-1.2185.

Now = 121 68

Went long @ 121 63 and again at 121 54 if seen .

Have a ggod night all

one last leg running for next push to try best 1.2050/00 likely test or down before good reaction, may take longer time at downside before the real push up try last of the last again.both ways are risky as nearing the decision but as weekly / monthly decision we have enough time managing trade any side .Take care, fontu

Well I have manually closed the last round of buys and got short about 20 pips up in AUD.

After realizing this ain't stopping at 78 or 88% then looking at daily chart I feel this is the

start of the deeper correction I was looking for already and given up on.

ECB President Mario Draghi might disappoint some incorrigible euro bulls today. Some ECB council members who fall more into the dove camp (e.g. Coeuré) have recently spoken out in favour of a slower normalisation of monetary policy, something the hawks on the council have been doing for some time anyway. But exactly at the time when for legal reasons alone (the key phrase being the 33% limit) an end of the asset purchases in the foreseeable future becomes necessary one important reason for the ECB is crumbling: the economy. Of course it is not opportune to be proclaiming an economic collapse due to the recent weakness in the ifo, PMIs etc. There is nothing dramatic about a moderate loss in the strong economic momentum. However, the indicators and thus also the economy should stabilise at these lower, but still very solid levels over the coming months. Otherwise the ECB would get into trouble and would have to convince the market to postpone its rate hike expectations even further.

But we haven’t got as far as this yet. In view of the weaker indicators Draghi will say some-thing along the lines of “we will keep a close eye on the development (of the economy/the indicators)”. Even though the future direction of monetary policy is likely to be discussed in the ECB council today, but all those who are hoping for a concrete decision or hawkish comments are likely to be disappointed though. The recently weaker data from the euro zone is likely to prevent that. In particular against the background of rising US yields that provided strong support for the dollar yesterday I therefore see little upside scope in EURUSD short term and in my view the risks are on the downside.

Now=121 75 L=121 56

I am expecting a tremendous jerk .soon . Don't know how long it will last .I will ride the wave as long as it lasts...

Watching Gold and Silver creating important LOWS . soon .

Muzzleloaders arm ...

The USD index continues to grind higher above the 91.000 level and eke out more fresh multi-month highs amidst widespread Dollar gains vs counterparts. 91.300 or so is the latest peak, as the USD inches closer to then next upside technical targets circa 91.500 and then 91.750.

EUR/USD were off lows on some profit taking but remained below the 1.2200 as all eyes now turn to the ECB interest rate decision at 12:45 BST and monetary policy statement at 13:30 BST.

Option expiries of note for today's 15:00 BST:
EUR/USD: 1.2150 (0.545BLN), 1.2200 (5.2BLN), 1.2250-55 (1.0BLN) and 1.2300 (0.740BLN).

Holding one short down to 1.2040, near the 200-day moving average.