- Post #17,562
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- Edited 10:01pm Apr 21, 2018 3:49pm | Edited 10:01pm
- Joined Feb 2017 | Status: Member | 1,365 Posts
From "Davit's Philosophy" clipboard Chapter 23 THE SUCCESS MECHANISM AND THE FAILURE MECHANISM We’ve previously discussed the servo-mechanism, the goal seeking mechanism that is inside of all us. We know the servo-mechanism works like an electronic computer to help us reach our goals. But the servo-mechanism can either be a success mechanism or a failure mechanism. When it is working as a success mechanism, it is helping us to reach the goals we want to help us improve our lives. As you already know, we use our creative imagination to vividly picture...
The only thing he'll be known for is being a joke which I'm sure he knows. I mean, why not 14? 15? 1000? High probability scalps happen hundreds of times a day and the ONE example he has didn't even have a static TP. It went past the TP and he closed it afterwards.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
- Post #17,564
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- Edited 9:18pm Apr 21, 2018 8:09pm | Edited 9:18pm
Here is a try on an analysis of next week
This week we have two central bank presidents speaking, apart from the other news I think these are the ones that are harder to predict or may come with unexpected out-of-line with the market speeches. With numbers we have a forecast that will move the market in line with it until the actual release. If it's the same as expected not much will happen, maybe if the pair is overbought/oversold (R/S61+) we can see a correction because the market was actually expecting better than forecast. Once we get green or red numbers we all know what happens.
Canada:
BOC governor Poloz speaks Monday 7:30PM and Wednesday 8:15PM. This week has been pretty bad for the CAD, BOC kept the interest rate a 1.25% and was overall dovish. It can be expected that this week will be the same.
It is understandable that Poloz decided not to hike by checking Canada's GDP. If he hikes they can expect GDP to fall even lower. Even tough, unemployment rate is near a 20 year low and inflation has broken a 4 year high "resistance".
We may see a weak CAD until CPI data is released mid may 2018.
This week I am bearish on the CAD.
"The Canadian economy advanced 0.4 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2017, the same as in the previous period, boosted by higher business investment and residential structures. Expressed at an annualized rate, the GDP expanded 1.7 percent, higher than 1.5 percent in Q3 but below expectations of a 2 percent growth."
"The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 1.25 percent on April 18th 2018, in line with market expectations. Policymakers said the transitory impact of higher gasoline prices and recent minimum wage increases will likely cause inflation in 2018 to be modestly higher than expected and the economy is projected to operate slightly above its potential over the next three years. As a result, the central bank sees higher interest rates over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep inflation on target."
European Union
Later next week on Thursday 12:30PM we have an ECB press conference.
"The Eurozone economy expanded 0.6 percent on quarter in the three months to December of 2017, in line with the second estimate and following a 0.7 percent advance in the previous period. Growth was mainly driven by exports (Trade balance release important) and fixed investment while household consumption increased at a softer pace. Among Eurozone's largest economies, GDP growth eased slightly in Germany and Italy, was unchanged in Spain and picked up in France."
I don't think they will be hawkish, its simple as their GDP is quite were they want it to be at 2.4% annually. They don't want the GDP closer to 0 on a quarterly basis and if they could keep it there they would. Inflation is fine, not too high at 1.3%, again why would they hike. I don't see the ECB affecting the Euro that much, if they could they would keep everything like it is in my opinion. The main mover of will be how the other currencies and economies affect the different Euro pairs. But we will see.
This week we have two central bank presidents speaking, apart from the other news I think these are the ones that are harder to predict or may come with unexpected out-of-line with the market speeches. With numbers we have a forecast that will move the market in line with it until the actual release. If it's the same as expected not much will happen, maybe if the pair is overbought/oversold (R/S61+) we can see a correction because the market was actually expecting better than forecast. Once we get green or red numbers we all know what happens.
Canada:
BOC governor Poloz speaks Monday 7:30PM and Wednesday 8:15PM. This week has been pretty bad for the CAD, BOC kept the interest rate a 1.25% and was overall dovish. It can be expected that this week will be the same.
It is understandable that Poloz decided not to hike by checking Canada's GDP. If he hikes they can expect GDP to fall even lower. Even tough, unemployment rate is near a 20 year low and inflation has broken a 4 year high "resistance".
We may see a weak CAD until CPI data is released mid may 2018.
This week I am bearish on the CAD.
"The Canadian economy advanced 0.4 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2017, the same as in the previous period, boosted by higher business investment and residential structures. Expressed at an annualized rate, the GDP expanded 1.7 percent, higher than 1.5 percent in Q3 but below expectations of a 2 percent growth."
"The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 1.25 percent on April 18th 2018, in line with market expectations. Policymakers said the transitory impact of higher gasoline prices and recent minimum wage increases will likely cause inflation in 2018 to be modestly higher than expected and the economy is projected to operate slightly above its potential over the next three years. As a result, the central bank sees higher interest rates over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep inflation on target."
European Union
Later next week on Thursday 12:30PM we have an ECB press conference.
"The Eurozone economy expanded 0.6 percent on quarter in the three months to December of 2017, in line with the second estimate and following a 0.7 percent advance in the previous period. Growth was mainly driven by exports (Trade balance release important) and fixed investment while household consumption increased at a softer pace. Among Eurozone's largest economies, GDP growth eased slightly in Germany and Italy, was unchanged in Spain and picked up in France."
I don't think they will be hawkish, its simple as their GDP is quite were they want it to be at 2.4% annually. They don't want the GDP closer to 0 on a quarterly basis and if they could keep it there they would. Inflation is fine, not too high at 1.3%, again why would they hike. I don't see the ECB affecting the Euro that much, if they could they would keep everything like it is in my opinion. The main mover of will be how the other currencies and economies affect the different Euro pairs. But we will see.
- Post #17,565
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- Apr 21, 2018 9:34pm Apr 21, 2018 9:34pm
- Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 5,001 Posts
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
- Post #17,566
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- Apr 22, 2018 12:57am Apr 22, 2018 12:57am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 20,989 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- Post #17,567
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- Apr 22, 2018 1:11am Apr 22, 2018 1:11am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 20,989 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- Post #17,568
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- Apr 22, 2018 1:11am Apr 22, 2018 1:11am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 20,989 Posts
My first attempt to prepare my trade base on FF calendar Monday 23/04/18 A lot of news for EU Forecast results are expected to be relatively the same as last month. If printed negative will be watching EG. Will avoid EU pair before the news as there might a lot of spike. Tuesday CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks, take about interest rate which is expected to maintain the same. would hold on to CAD position. AUD if print red expect AU and AC to go north EUR German Ifo Business Climate GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing If both are green as per forecast, then...
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- Post #17,569
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- Apr 22, 2018 1:15am Apr 22, 2018 1:15am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 20,989 Posts
My Calendar for Week 17 (April 22, 2018 - April 28, 2018) {image} Best regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- Post #17,570
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- Apr 22, 2018 6:19am Apr 22, 2018 6:19am
- Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Membership Terminated | 4,544 Posts
{quote} Griffin is an Excellent trader and an excellent technician but to be honest, he doesn't look like following your system as intended (no offence anyway). He uses mostly SE/SE and hard stop contrary to your instructions or general practices, and seems not very interested in fundamentals/news. My observation is his style is rather closer to TMS using his anglitor. (you said you don't really need Anglitor, which is for beginners.) I guess he already has a profitable system/strategy and this system is just a hobby to him. Anyway, he pointed out...
...... thnx 4 the complement but im try'n 2 b the 'best looking' trader ever 
not the most profitable .....
"uses mostly SE/SE" ..... sure cause i have a small account & going from 0.01 to 0.02 is double the risk 
see my problem .... i have no hard stop [i use 2] but i have TP cause i rarely am around to take profit ...... id rather b drink'n beer dude 
"style is rather closer to TMS" ..... wrong bro .... 4 this system my win% over 9 months is 88% and my R:R is 1:1.2 ...... for TMS30 it was 52% and 1:3 ...... this alone will tella im trade'n it diff 2 TMS30 
"is just a hobby to him" ....... TMS30 was cool but i needed 2 b in front of the tradestation all day ...... got sick of it dude ..... that was my main problem that davit solved 
...... now i spend about 1 hour per week trade'n now ...... & 1000hours on ff 
"they don't have proper scalping skill" ........ IMO noobs dont have proper entry skills ....... [email protected] MrAussie, Josh, fibo & all the senior crew ....... Davit has one of the best entry & continuations trade skills ive seen ....... is it scalping??? my avergae pips on win trade is over 50pips i guess that is a scalp on H4 ???
"to fast PA reading or intuition" ..... IMO 2 get this skills u need 2 do ur basic training ..... 2 years fulltime trade'n then well talk 
"That's the dilemma" ...... no dilemma if they have there system no need to post or learn here??? its all cool bro Davits post above said about turtle traders .... make sure u read it
IMO u must b indivdual trader no other way 
- Post #17,574
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- Edited 4:08pm Apr 22, 2018 7:55am | Edited 4:08pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Consistency is Key!! | 1,297 Posts
- Post #17,576
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- Apr 22, 2018 10:06am Apr 22, 2018 10:06am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 20,989 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- Post #17,577
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- Edited 1:40pm Apr 22, 2018 1:16pm | Edited 1:40pm
- | Joined May 2010 | Status: Non Member | 2,751 Posts
Don't be smart. Be rich.
- Post #17,579
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- Apr 22, 2018 5:24pm Apr 22, 2018 5:24pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Member | 20,989 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time