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  • #17,561
  • Apr 21, 2018 12:09pm Apr 21, 2018 12:09pm
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  • #17,562
  • Edited 7:01pm Apr 21, 2018 12:49pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting Davit
From "Davit's Philosophy" clipboard Chapter 23 THE SUCCESS MECHANISM AND THE FAILURE MECHANISM We’ve previously discussed the servo-mechanism, the goal seeking mechanism that is inside of all us. We know the servo-mechanism works like an electronic computer to help us reach our goals. But the servo-mechanism can either be a success mechanism or a failure mechanism. When it is working as a success mechanism, it is helping us to reach the goals we want to help us improve our lives. As you already know, we use our creative imagination to vividly picture...
He's a twit anyway. He 'wants to be known for' 13 consecutive wins(scalping) with a static TP/SL. As though it's a difficult thing to accomplish.

The only thing he'll be known for is being a joke which I'm sure he knows. I mean, why not 14? 15? 1000? High probability scalps happen hundreds of times a day and the ONE example he has didn't even have a static TP. It went past the TP and he closed it afterwards.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #17,563
  • Apr 21, 2018 4:17pm Apr 21, 2018 4:17pm
"Knowledge must be earned and not come too easily, lest that not be appreciated." -WD Gann
  • #17,564
  • Edited 6:18pm Apr 21, 2018 5:09pm | Edited 6:18pm
Here is a try on an analysis of next week

This week we have two central bank presidents speaking, apart from the other news I think these are the ones that are harder to predict or may come with unexpected out-of-line with the market speeches. With numbers we have a forecast that will move the market in line with it until the actual release. If it's the same as expected not much will happen, maybe if the pair is overbought/oversold (R/S61+) we can see a correction because the market was actually expecting better than forecast. Once we get green or red numbers we all know what happens.

Canada:

BOC governor Poloz speaks Monday 7:30PM and Wednesday 8:15PM. This week has been pretty bad for the CAD, BOC kept the interest rate a 1.25% and was overall dovish. It can be expected that this week will be the same.

It is understandable that Poloz decided not to hike by checking Canada's GDP. If he hikes they can expect GDP to fall even lower. Even tough, unemployment rate is near a 20 year low and inflation has broken a 4 year high "resistance".

We may see a weak CAD until CPI data is released mid may 2018.

This week I am bearish on the CAD.

"The Canadian economy advanced 0.4 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2017, the same as in the previous period, boosted by higher business investment and residential structures. Expressed at an annualized rate, the GDP expanded 1.7 percent, higher than 1.5 percent in Q3 but below expectations of a 2 percent growth."

"The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 1.25 percent on April 18th 2018, in line with market expectations. Policymakers said the transitory impact of higher gasoline prices and recent minimum wage increases will likely cause inflation in 2018 to be modestly higher than expected and the economy is projected to operate slightly above its potential over the next three years. As a result, the central bank sees higher interest rates over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep inflation on target."

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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European Union

Later next week on Thursday 12:30PM we have an ECB press conference.

"The Eurozone economy expanded 0.6 percent on quarter in the three months to December of 2017, in line with the second estimate and following a 0.7 percent advance in the previous period. Growth was mainly driven by exports (Trade balance release important) and fixed investment while household consumption increased at a softer pace. Among Eurozone's largest economies, GDP growth eased slightly in Germany and Italy, was unchanged in Spain and picked up in France."

I don't think they will be hawkish, its simple as their GDP is quite were they want it to be at 2.4% annually. They don't want the GDP closer to 0 on a quarterly basis and if they could keep it there they would. Inflation is fine, not too high at 1.3%, again why would they hike. I don't see the ECB affecting the Euro that much, if they could they would keep everything like it is in my opinion. The main mover of will be how the other currencies and economies affect the different Euro pairs. But we will see.
  • #17,565
  • Apr 21, 2018 6:34pm Apr 21, 2018 6:34pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I would of expected little more then "thanks" for very insightful post by Griffinsoul.I hope you understood it.He pointed out same reasons why I don't do limit orders.Its not part of my system.
Griffin is an Excellent trader and an excellent technician but to be honest, he doesn't look like following your system as intended (no offence anyway). He uses mostly SE/SE and hard stop contrary to your instructions or general practices, and seems not very interested in fundamentals/news. My observation is his style is rather closer to TMS using his anglitor. (you said you don't really need Anglitor, which is for beginners.) I guess he already has a profitable system/strategy and this system is just a hobby to him.
Anyway, he pointed out a good point about this system. Please see: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post10962218
In my opinion, if there are people struggling (as you said many early enthusiasts disappeared), I think that's because they don't have proper scalping skill which is a critical part in this system. On the other hand, if people have such decent scalping skill (in addition to fast PA reading or intuition), they may not need or may not be motivated to learn another system. That's the dilemma.
What do you think?
By the way, I am not criticizing your system, and I expect I can see you in CNBC sooner or later. I strongly believe you gonna make minimum 10M dollars in 5-10 years. Your limit is market's liquidity.
Thanks
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #17,566
  • Apr 21, 2018 9:57pm Apr 21, 2018 9:57pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Griffin is an Excellent trader and an excellent technician but to be honest, he doesn't look like following your system as intended (no offence anyway). He uses mostly SE/SE and hard stop contrary to your instructions or general practices, and seems not very interested in fundamentals/news. My observation is his style is rather closer to TMS using his anglitor. (you said you don't really need Anglitor, which is for beginners.) I guess he already has a profitable system/strategy and this system is just a hobby to him. Anyway, he pointed out...
Hi Heispark
How others trade my system is their prerogative.Everyone has their slight variation that's because we are all individuals.
Some get in early some get in late some get greedy trade larger lots and get burn etc etc.I have no control over this.
What I do want to emphasize that I don't scalp and don't think this thread has anything to do with scalping.I trade swings! My average distance is 50pips+per position.Don't think that fits with scalping specially that majority of my trades have weekly Pivots as guidance and trades often lasts more then 3days.
I think trading is challenging even with proven method one only needs to read Turtle experiment to understand this.People who have enough experience do well here and Griffinsoul does well and he is a conservative trader and his gains are conservative but that's his comfort zone and everyone should trade within their comfort zone.I always have been lot more aggressive and that's just my personality.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,567
  • Apr 21, 2018 10:11pm Apr 21, 2018 10:11pm
Quoting Nenuser
Here is a try on an analysis of next week This week we have two central bank presidents speaking, apart from the other news I think these are the ones that are harder to predict or may come with unexpected out-of-line with the market speeches. With numbers we have a forecast that will move the market in line with it until the actual release. If it's the same as expected not much will happen, maybe if the pair is overbought/oversold (R/S61+) we can see a correction because the market was actually expecting better than forecast. Once we get green...
Excellent work! Real good keep it up and later end of the week write how doing this changed your trading if any.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,568
  • Apr 21, 2018 10:11pm Apr 21, 2018 10:11pm
Quoting Newhire
My first attempt to prepare my trade base on FF calendar Monday 23/04/18 A lot of news for EU Forecast results are expected to be relatively the same as last month. If printed negative will be watching EG. Will avoid EU pair before the news as there might a lot of spike. Tuesday CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks, take about interest rate which is expected to maintain the same. would hold on to CAD position. AUD if print red expect AU and AC to go north EUR German Ifo Business Climate GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing If both are green as per forecast, then...
good start.Keep it up
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,569
  • Apr 21, 2018 10:15pm Apr 21, 2018 10:15pm
Quoting MrAussieFX
My Calendar for Week 17 (April 22, 2018 - April 28, 2018) {image} Best regards
very impressive and your results speak for itself!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,570
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:19am Apr 22, 2018 3:19am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Griffin is an Excellent trader and an excellent technician but to be honest, he doesn't look like following your system as intended (no offence anyway). He uses mostly SE/SE and hard stop contrary to your instructions or general practices, and seems not very interested in fundamentals/news. My observation is his style is rather closer to TMS using his anglitor. (you said you don't really need Anglitor, which is for beginners.) I guess he already has a profitable system/strategy and this system is just a hobby to him. Anyway, he pointed out...
hey heispark .... hope ur well buddy ...... thnx 4 the complement but im try'n 2 b the 'best looking' trader ever not the most profitable .....

"uses mostly SE/SE" ..... sure cause i have a small account & going from 0.01 to 0.02 is double the risk see my problem .... i have no hard stop [i use 2] but i have TP cause i rarely am around to take profit ...... id rather b drink'n beer dude

"style is rather closer to TMS" ..... wrong bro .... 4 this system my win% over 9 months is 88% and my R:R is 1:1.2 ...... for TMS30 it was 52% and 1:3 ...... this alone will tella im trade'n it diff 2 TMS30

"is just a hobby to him" ....... TMS30 was cool but i needed 2 b in front of the tradestation all day ...... got sick of it dude ..... that was my main problem that davit solved ...... now i spend about 1 hour per week trade'n now ...... & 1000hours on ff

"they don't have proper scalping skill" ........ IMO noobs dont have proper entry skills ....... look@ MrAussie, Josh, fibo & all the senior crew ....... Davit has one of the best entry & continuations trade skills ive seen ....... is it scalping??? my avergae pips on win trade is over 50pips i guess that is a scalp on H4 ???

"to fast PA reading or intuition" ..... IMO 2 get this skills u need 2 do ur basic training ..... 2 years fulltime trade'n then well talk

"That's the dilemma" ...... no dilemma if they have there system no need to post or learn here??? its all cool bro

Davits post above said about turtle traders .... make sure u read it IMO u must b indivdual trader no other way
  • #17,571
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:39am Apr 22, 2018 3:39am
My take on the news for next week and what I expect (I have not read others' opinions yet).

EUR - some slowdown in activity (probably trade fears), business climate still positive, stronger labor market, inflation accelerating but not much (yet). QE still in full swing. Expect EUR to weaken a bit. ECB might signal a tighter monetary policy. Doubtful at this point as Brexit and trade fears remain front and center.

USD - Housing market stable, confidence at high levels but trade fears, employment good, inflation picking up. Expect USD to strengthen.

AUD - No inflation fears, weaker economic activity. Expect AUD to stay weak.

CAD - Behind the curve compared to US on economic activity and inflation. Inflation starting to pick up. Brent rising strengthens CAD.

JPY - Still weak economic activity, no inflation fears, expect accommodative CB, weaker JPY, unless volatility spikes, then JPY will gain.

GBP - Weaker economic activity. Inflation fears seem to have passed. Brexit hiccups. GBP set to weaken.
  • #17,572
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:50am Apr 22, 2018 3:50am
Quoting MrAussieFX
My Calendar for Week 17 (April 22, 2018 - April 28, 2018) {image} Best regards
Excellent! Very educational!
Very professional, too!

Thanks
  • #17,573
  • Apr 22, 2018 4:39am Apr 22, 2018 4:39am
Quoting Davit
Had a great week over 8% and already hit over 10% for the month rest of the month is gravy. Have good chunk of profitable trades but going to run this next week since I see a potential for greater gains. I am glad you guys are doing good or only guys who are doing good are posting...two ways to see this. green pips {image}
Hi Davit,

Nice results, can you let me know how many pairs you trade in parallel?
Even you choose small lot sizes, nearly 200 trades wanted to be managed.

Keep it up.
  • #17,574
  • Edited 1:08pm Apr 22, 2018 4:55am | Edited 1:08pm
My trading plan for the week ahead.

US 10yr Treasury yields rose above 2.9% at the end of last week which made the dollar strengthen and there is optimistic talk by fed about intrest rate.

US dollar I think will strengthen this week.

BOC was somewhat cautious, weighing on lonnie and I belevie we will see a move to the upside on UC.

AUD job reports were disappointing and made it drop, I think we could see more pushes lower, I will be looking at good levels to sell.

GBP UK wages came out red and we saw the drop. This pair was overbrought for a while and now we are seeing it lose some ground, I think we could range for beginning of week and will only look to sell at good levels

EUR- Its a tricky one this week as lots of news, The ECB removed the potential for increasing the volume of bond buys in their last meeting back in march, which was a harkish shift which was then downplayed by Drighi. Since then the data has got worst, Industrial outputs and PMI all missed exceptions.
The focus will be on a potenial slowdown which will sure make the EUR drop, expecially if it has implications on Monetary policy. My bias is still short for this pair and will look at good rejection at our levels.
  • #17,575
  • Apr 22, 2018 6:43am Apr 22, 2018 6:43am
Market events to watch this week:

Monday, April 23
9:30pm AUD CPI q/q
Tuesday, April 24
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, April 25
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, April 26
7:45am EUR Minimum Bid Rate
8:30am EUR ECB Press Conference
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
10:00pm JPY BOJ Policy Rate
10:00pm Monetary Policy Statement
Midnight JPY BOJ Outlook Report
Friday, April 27
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
4:30am GBP Prelim GDP q/q
8:30am USD Advance GDP q/q

----------------------------------------------------------------

The highlights for the trading week will be the rate statements from the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) alongside the release of the first estimate of the first quarter growth in the US.

  1. ECB not anticipated to announce major changes to monetary policy
  2. Low inflation to keep BOJ to maintain quantitative easing
  3. US GDP forecasted at 2 percent for Q1


EURUSD:

 

  1. The market will be focused on the ECB statement for any clues about their exit from its massive QE program,
  2. Mario Draghi’s comments on Friday at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting called out the lack of traction in the first quarter.


USDCAD:

  1. Last week The use of the word cautious regarding future rate hikes weighted more than the positive comments on the economy overall.

  1. Next week will be quiet for Canadian economic releases with only Wholesales sales on Monday, April 23 at 8:30 am on the schedule. Retailers are expected to have increased their orders to wholesalers by 0.3 percent in March.

GBPUSD:

 

  1. The economic calendar in the UK will not feature a lot of indicator releases but the highlight will be the release of the preliminary GDP estimate for the first quarter. The UK economy is expected to have grown by 0.3 percent, but any improvement on the forecast will be cause for the pound to appreciate as it makes the May rate hike a stronger possibility.

Plan your trade and Trade your plan.
  • #17,576
  • Apr 22, 2018 7:06am Apr 22, 2018 7:06am
Quoting c0ldsun
{quote} Hi Davit, Nice results, can you let me know how many pairs you trade in parallel? Even you choose small lot sizes, nearly 200 trades wanted to be managed. Keep it up.
It all depends on opertunity.When I see a great set ups I can trade 6 pairs same time with 10positions each.When 1 or 2 I increase position sizes.
If you want to know more read all my closed trades March April to get an idea.Little work from your end will pay dividends.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,577
  • Edited 10:40am Apr 22, 2018 10:16am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting Davit
2) The automatic mechanism is teleological, that is, operates or must be oriented to “end results” goals. Do not be discouraged because the “means whereby” may not be apparent. It is the function of the automatic mechanism to supply the “means whereby” when you supply the goal. Think in terms of the end results and the means whereby will often take care of themselves. Moreover, its nature is to operate spontaneously according to present need. Therefore, you have no guarantees in advance. It comes into operation as you act and as you place a demand...
Hi Davit,
Thank you for sharing this. Ordered the book.

TC.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #17,578
  • Apr 22, 2018 12:55pm Apr 22, 2018 12:55pm
Monday
AUD
CPI q/q 0.5% 0.6% - Aussie could keep going lower if readings negative, especially if it fails to climb to within Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2-3% target band. Investors will push back expectations of RBA raising rates. Continue to sell AUD crosses like AU

EUR
Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.6 56.6
Flash Services PMI 54.8 54.9
If readings significantly negative, sell EUR crosses like EU, EA, EG. If readings are a surprise positive, buy EU, EA, EG, EC until Thursday for the ECB Press Conference

CAD
BOC GOV Poloz Speaks – any dovish statement will continue to push CAD to the downside, buy UC, EC, AC, GC as long as oil price is same or dropping

Tuesday
USD
CB Consumer Confidence – a positive reading can boast USD, either hold existing long USD positions or buy UC, UJ – sell GU

Wednesday
USD
Crude Oil Inventories – a surplus or less consumption than anticipated reading can further support USD, hold existing long USD positions or buy UJ, UC

Thursday
EUR
ECB Press Conference – expected to keep rates and forward guidance unchanged since economy struggles to maintain growth momentum. If EUR has been rising all week, sell EUR crosses (only against stronger currencies according to their sentiments) after this news

USD
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.3% 3.0% - pay attention to this one since it affects tomorrow’s advance GDP reading. If weaker than anticipated, the Advance GDP figure will likely to be less as well. If very negative, sell USD crosses at the S/R61 levels

Friday
GBP
Prelim GDP q/q 0.3% 0.4% - negative readings lately, if negative sell GBP crosses such as GU, GC, GA

USD
Advance GDP q/q 2.0% 2.9% - a slightly worse reading unlikely to have impact on FED; however a better reading than 2.0% will boast USD – buy UJ, UC

JPY
BOJ Monetary Policy – anticipate no changes to policy; further JPY weakness due to growing yield differences with USD – focus on only selling JPY
  • #17,579
  • Apr 22, 2018 2:24pm Apr 22, 2018 2:24pm
some trades from last week still running
pivots have not been updated so please don't ask the "whys"
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCADM15.png Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADM15.png Size: 47 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #17,580
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:00pm Apr 22, 2018 3:00pm
Hi all...here my feedback

Monday

CAD: Poloz speech. I am not sure if this will be a market mover as everything that needed to be said was said last week already. What could influence CAD is Oil and that has seen some strength lately. There are still some uncertainties about Nafta and until this is solved it is a best guess. I keep away from CAD for the time being

Tuesday

AUD: CPI q/q and Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
If negative reading than AUD to drop as it could push rate hike expectations further out but only with a deviation of at least by 0.3%...if positive reading then we can have a nice boost to AUD especially after its sell off last week

USD: Consumer Confidence: Not a market mover in my opinion.

Wednesday:

USD/CAD Crude Oil Inventories - interesting to see if we see follow on of commodity prices going higher. This to me is the main driver for CAD on the short term until we see better economic data and finalisation of Nafta deal. As mentioned I am not trading CAD at the moment

Thursday:

EUR Min bid rate. No change here ..all eyes on press conference. Expect more dovish statement after recent cool off of inflation and growth data. Expect EUR to fall
USD: Durable goods orders. Not a market mover. Main event tomorrow Friday.

Friday:

GBP: Prelim GDP . expect negative reading ..tricky thing is that everybody knows that the last quarter was bad due to the very abysmal weather. My expectation is that if it comes out than expected we could see a bullish move for a very short time ( pullback against last weeks bad numbers )
USD: Advance GDP q/q/ sentiment on USD is very bullish lately. Pretty much the only economy that has positive data so expect no impact to the USD even if data comes out worse than expected
JPY: No changes and certainly not to the hawkish side...what could happen though is that they are throwing even more money towards the problem (more Q/E)

All in all I do not believe a very extreme active week.
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