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Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

  • #2,301
  • Apr 18, 2018 11:15am Apr 18, 2018 11:15am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Marekt staying steady. Really?! Do your trades last only 0 ticks?
lol; staying steady means it did not go up or down; it remains within a tight range of your entry price.
  • #2,302
  • Apr 18, 2018 11:27am Apr 18, 2018 11:27am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} lol; staying steady means it did not go up or down; it remains within a tight range of your entry price.
Yes, I understood. But I mean, how tight is that range. And does it hurt to wait? No range will last forever. Thus, it boilds more down to 50/50.
  • #2,303
  • Apr 18, 2018 12:31pm Apr 18, 2018 12:31pm
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Yes, I understood. But I mean, how tight is that range. And does it hurt to wait? No range will last forever. Thus, it boilds more down to 50/50.
indeed its either up or down 50-50
  • #2,304
  • Apr 18, 2018 12:43pm Apr 18, 2018 12:43pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} indeed its either up or down 50-50
I don't beleive it is 50/50. because:

- In the science of financial timeseries prediction; statisticians have long discovered that the price remains steady with higher statistical significance.
- Volatility is needed to make money. Market has to move up or down; in order for the trader to take part of that move.
- Trading cost. You need to cover the cost of your trading; which is at least few pips from your entry price
  • #2,305
  • Apr 18, 2018 1:02pm Apr 18, 2018 1:02pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} I don't beleive it is 50/50. because: - In the science of financial timeseries prediction; statisticians have long discovered that the price remains steady with higher statistical significance. - Volatility is needed to make money. Market has to move up or down; in order for the trader to take part of that move.
You need to account for the TIME aspect of the "timeseries". Even though price might not be doing anything, time marches on.

That's why I love options. Some of my most profitable options methods don't require any price movement at all. But that's where options pricing and the greeks come in. Even though price isn't doing anything, time is advancing which is a crucial part of options pricing. Crucial... get it? *sigh*
  • #2,306
  • Apr 21, 2018 9:04am Apr 21, 2018 9:04am
Quoting alphadude
{quote}Market has to move up or down; in order for the trader to take part of that move.
Yeah you right it’s either up or down hence 50-50
  • #2,307
  • Apr 22, 2018 4:44am Apr 22, 2018 4:44am
I would like to ask you guys, if you have anything, any indicator what would help me to take more of probabilities on my side, or any good risk/money managment etc.
I am still trying to figure out and find my profitable style with this, so I didn't trade it yet, that is why I am asking you, for some opinions and advices. Thanks a lot!

Yellow line is open line, green and red lines would be my trigger lines 50 points away from open line.
I would not trade it all day, but for example just London time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,309
  • Apr 22, 2018 3:44pm Apr 22, 2018 3:44pm
Quoting chyldom
I would like to ask you guys, if you have anything, any indicator what would help me to take more of probabilities on my side, or any good risk/money managment etc. I am still trying to figure out and find my profitable style with this, so I didn't trade it yet, that is why I am asking you, for some opinions and advices. Thanks a lot! Yellow line is open line, green and red lines would be my trigger lines 50 points away from open line. I would not trade it all day, but for example just London time. {image}
it should be 50 pips not points

ideally you should be looking to have that range 50 pips. let the price form a minimum of 50 pips after the open price than trade that
  • #2,310
  • Apr 23, 2018 12:51am Apr 23, 2018 12:51am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} it should be 50 pips not points ideally you should be looking to have that range 50 pips. let the price form a minimum of 50 pips after the open price than trade that
Ah, TRO's aka TooSlow's open lines ... May I ask why 50 pips? Supported with some stats?
  • #2,311
  • Apr 23, 2018 3:06am Apr 23, 2018 3:06am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Ah, TRO's aka TooSlow's open lines ... May I ask why 50 pips? Supported with some stats?
it is to do with the minimum daily range formed every day.

check this post
  • #2,312
  • Apr 23, 2018 3:20am Apr 23, 2018 3:20am
Quoting alphadude
{quote} it is to do with the minimum daily range formed every day. check this post
Yes, I thought so. But I think chyldom wants to trade from the open in the direction of the daily high/low. I think your approach is more reliable for reversal trading (trading away from highs/lows towards the open), isn't it?
  • #2,313
  • Apr 23, 2018 3:52am Apr 23, 2018 3:52am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Yes, I thought so. But I think chyldom wants to trade from the open in the direction of the daily high/low. I think your approach is more reliable for reversal trading (trading away from highs/lows towards the open), isn't it?

No Anticre, I said that red and green lines are my trigger point, so I would trade it when price will close above or bellow this lines, not in that 50p range.
  • #2,314
  • Apr 23, 2018 4:24am Apr 23, 2018 4:24am
Quoting chyldom
{quote} No Anticre, I said that red and green lines are my trigger point, so I would trade it when price will close above or bellow this lines, not in that 50p range.
That's not what I wrote. I wrote that you want trade towards the high or low and use the open lines to trigger the trade.
  • #2,315
  • Apr 23, 2018 4:29am Apr 23, 2018 4:29am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} That's not what I wrote. I wrote that you want trade towards the high or low and use the open lines to trigger the trade.

I was just asking for any more advice or help or inicator what would help me, and if I am going to right direction with this. So I am still trying to figure out and find comfortable and profitable style with this. So I dont know yet 100% how I want to trade it.
  • #2,316
  • Edited 7:56am Apr 23, 2018 7:36am | Edited 7:56am
IMHO you can trade either ways:

1. Trend following: trade in the direction of the bar (i.e. if the higher of the range is above the open price, go Long); but only enter after the range reached 50 pips

2. Mean reversion: take a short when the price reached the upper boundary.

However; CP was talking about the trend following method (1) above.

You have to keep in mind that the 50 pips you are setting; should be used in the context of the session you are trading.

i.e. do a study on what is the minimum range of the London/NY session; and use that number.
This number will be different for each pair.

attached is the study for EUR/USD; indicating the daily range is 99% above 32 pips. meaning; you will not find any day with lower than 32 pips
this is useful if you are trading from the day start; not from London session start.
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  • #2,317
  • Edited 11:16am Apr 23, 2018 7:55am | Edited 11:16am
here is statistics for London/NY session range for EUR/USD

99% of the time; the range is above 24 pips.

so in your case; you should be using 24 pips and not 50 pips

====== Edit
Disclaimer: I do not have any profitable strategy using CP methods; all my posts above; are merely explaining some of his ideas.
My conclusion from reading all of CP' posts; is: His strategy is discretionary; and cannot be automated. Therefore; it is very subjective.
Pretty much similar to any other discretionary strategy shared here in FF (see for example; this Simple Scalping method)

Using subjectivity in implementing trading ideas can be fruitful; but it is not my cup of tea. I am a fully automated systematic trader.
Any strategy I trade; has to pass the backtesting test, and forward testing of a full month (with real money, but smaller lots).
- profitable backtested strategies may or may not work in live trading;
- losing backtesting strategies will *certainly* lose in live trading

That is my conclusion so far; and I advice anyone who is trying to extract something from this thread; to end their pursuit of happiness; and do the hard work and invent strategies that suits you.

You are better off spending some quality time with this thread: Simple Scalping method
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  • #2,318
  • Apr 25, 2018 5:14am Apr 25, 2018 5:14am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Hi Piano, Thank you for sharing your perspective. You forced me to come out of hiding to post this :-( You and Sis. are definitely on the something but none of you have given a practical implementation of the principles of time/price harmonic cycles. I have a feeling you both have and because of the time and effort that goes into such intense research, you are keeping it to yourselves... which I completely understand. Continue reading and you will soon learn I am also doing the same. This has been my "research" area for past 3 years and...

VEEFX,

Nice to see you back...

"A qualifying entry condition can NEVER EVER have the same qualifying exit."

Could you please dumb it down and explain why it is so?

Thanks

PS: Are you really writing a book?
  • #2,319
  • May 1, 2018 4:36pm May 1, 2018 4:36pm
Quoting aaven
{quote} VEEFX, Nice to see you back... "A qualifying entry condition can NEVER EVER have the same qualifying exit." Could you please dumb it down and explain why it is so? Thanks PS: Are you really writing a book?
Have to post this openly to avoid the same mistake PipEasy did on the millipede thread. Graeme (another Superman) made one brief reference to writing a book and then disappeared from this forum leaving every hopeful soul waiting for his book to come out.

That won't be the case with me so there is no book in the works. I have already shared every bit of knowledge in bits and pieces openly after a firm opinion is developed based on my own research and validation. Part of the reason why I delete my posts quickly is to avoid a discussion and develop a bias from what others have to say. There is plenty of research already in the works (aligned with my own interests) to rule out fiction from the hard core facts about this industry.

Adios
Staying in my lane...
  • #2,320
  • May 2, 2018 5:59am May 2, 2018 5:59am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Have to post this openly to avoid the same mistake PipEasy did on the millipede thread. Graeme (another Superman) made one brief reference to writing a book and then disappeared from this forum leaving every hopeful soul waiting for his book to come out. That won't be the case with me so there is no book in the works. I have already shared every bit of knowledge in bits and pieces openly after a firm opinion is developed based on my own research and validation. Part of the reason why I delete my posts quickly is to avoid a discussion and...
Thanks VEE. Your posts are always food for thought...
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