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USD/CAD

  • #12,941
  • Apr 17, 2018 3:20pm Apr 17, 2018 3:20pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Lol no as it's not expected (30% chance last time I saw). Nafta still holding it back.
Thank you for providing no sources or insight. Please stick to your useless thread. Traders here actually expect some type of analysis/critical thinking.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,942
  • Apr 18, 2018 3:10am Apr 18, 2018 3:10am
From a fundamental point of view the BoC has sufficient reason to further hike its key rate. Inflation has reached the middle of its target range and the outlook for the domestic economy is solid. The NAFTA negotiations so far constituted the main uncertainty factor for the BoC’s positive outlook, as an end of NAFTA would entail considerable negative effects for the Canadian economy. However, the negotiating partners have increasingly signalled that an agreement is possible. The BoC will nonetheless take a break today and leave the key rate unchanged at 1.25%. Despite all positive signals a failure of the NAFTA negotiations or even a trade war remain within the realms of possibility. Moreover the BoC is likely to be interested in ensuring that the Canadian dollar does not appreciate any further against the US dollar. A stronger CAD would not only create downside pressure for inflation but also further reduce the already stricken competitiveness of the Canadian companies. As the market expects unchanged interest rates it would cause an undesired appreciation of CAD against USD if the BoC was to hike interest rates today. That means the BoC will only continue with the rate hike cycle in the summer and leave interest rates unchanged today. It is unlikely to make any major changes to the forecasts in the monetary policy report either, but its tone is likely to move further towards gradual rate hikes and therefore be moderately positive for CAD.
  • #12,943
  • Apr 18, 2018 3:18am Apr 18, 2018 3:18am
Quoting Plenov
From a fundamental point of view the BoC has sufficient reason to further hike its key rate. Inflation has reached the middle of its target range and the outlook for the domestic economy is solid. The NAFTA negotiations so far constituted the main uncertainty factor for the BoC’s positive outlook, as an end of NAFTA would entail considerable negative effects for the Canadian economy. However, the negotiating partners have increasingly signalled that an agreement is possible. The BoC will nonetheless take a break today and leave the key rate unchanged...
I agree with you, but NAFTA is still a heavy uncertainty as the white house came out and said a deal may not be reached until the end of the year and thats what I feel officially killed the hike today. Poloz may have taken the risk otherwise, but its not worth hiking then having to cut rates twice

So I feel we may see usd/cad rally up but nonetheless I am trading it live so I will hear the official commentary.
  • #12,944
  • Apr 18, 2018 3:32am Apr 18, 2018 3:32am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I agree with you, but NAFTA is still a heavy uncertainty as the white house came out and said a deal may not be reached until the end of the year and thats what I feel officially killed the hike today. Poloz may have taken the risk otherwise, but its not worth hiking then having to cut rates twice So I feel we may see usd/cad rally up but nonetheless I am trading it live so I will hear the official commentary.
From the article I posted above.

NAFTA secondary, main reason is here:

"Since the bank’s last monetary policy report in January, the economy hasn’t lived up to expectations. Exports were sluggish to start the year, and growth in the first quarter -- economists predict a 1.7 percent annualized pace -- was well below what the central bank had been looking for.

That means there’s less pressure on production capacity today than there appeared to be three months ago, which alone is probably enough to keep the central bank on hold."
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,945
  • Apr 18, 2018 4:09am Apr 18, 2018 4:09am
in my humble opinion, i think usdcad will go down to around 1.2450, and from there, price will bounce up very hard for a few weeks to reach 1.3000.
let's hope and pray, and sit and wait..
  • #12,946
  • Apr 18, 2018 7:17am Apr 18, 2018 7:17am
Crude making multi year highs at the moment. Still super bullish. A lot of open air above.

Nice little UCAD pump and dump before the rate decision. Get all those weak shorts washed out and herd the little bulls in like sheep before the short slaughter continues.

"Money knows where price is going long before the press" -Magix

Spot on.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,947
  • Apr 18, 2018 7:22am Apr 18, 2018 7:22am
I’m long USD/CAD today before BOC decision

I think the rate statement will be bearish and the press conference won’t support the CAD either

1.30 is my longer term target
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #12,948
  • Apr 18, 2018 7:33am Apr 18, 2018 7:33am
Quoting MrPresident
I’m long USD/CAD today before BOC decision I think the rate statement will be bearish and the press conference won’t support the CAD either 1.30 is my longer term target
Could be a dovish statement is already priced in.

No one is expecting a rate hike and likely no one is expecting anything other than a quasi dovish wait and see rhetoric. Seems to me the risk would be to the downside. Oil making multi year highs will only keep the selling pressure on in my opinion.

Good luck though
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,949
  • Apr 18, 2018 8:03am Apr 18, 2018 8:03am
Quoting Expo33
Crude making multi year highs at the moment. Still super bullish. A lot of open air above. Nice little UCAD pump and dump before the rate decision. Get all those weak shorts washed out and herd the little bulls in like sheep before the short slaughter continues. "Money knows where price is going long before the press" -Magix Spot on.
Interesting and lots more of good points.

ill be adding into longs shortly targeting 1.2674 and onto above 1.30.
  • #12,950
  • Apr 18, 2018 8:53am Apr 18, 2018 8:53am
Quoting FXClarity
{quote} Interesting and lots more of good points. ill be adding into longs shortly targeting 1.2674 and onto above 1.30.
I'm still holding short from 126.03. Not sure why anyone would be long here but good luck.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,951
  • Apr 18, 2018 8:56am Apr 18, 2018 8:56am
buying now and target around 1.28-1.3
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #12,952
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:04am Apr 18, 2018 9:04am
Quoting MrPresident
I’m long USD/CAD today before BOC decision I think the rate statement will be bearish and the press conference won’t support the CAD either 1.30 is my longer term target
bearish for CAD, pullbacks are a buy for me into the press conference
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #12,953
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:04am Apr 18, 2018 9:04am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I'm still holding short from 126.03. Not sure why anyone would be long here but good luck.
Well not to be nosy but i don't know his reasons but his call was on point
  • #12,954
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:08am Apr 18, 2018 9:08am
Here's my technical perspective on the USDCAD atm. The technicals are primarily bearish. On the daily timeframe, price action has disposed southward after a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from the high May 2017 to the low of September 2017. A wedge pattern is operative on the daily time frame (magenta) and the wedge support line is likely to be a target for bears. The horizontal support around 1.22610/1.20789 may be exposed if bears breach the wedge support.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #12,955
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:12am Apr 18, 2018 9:12am
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} Well not to be nosy but i don't know his reasons but his call was on point
I don't consider price movement during a news event a "call". The real move has yet to happen. I'm adding more shorts now up to 1.265 where my opinion is any rally will be capped.

Everyone is getting long. I like that. Good luck.

Awesome 20 people suddenly on UCAD thread. Tomorrow back to the usual one person every 6 hours, lol.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,956
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:13am Apr 18, 2018 9:13am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} I don't consider price movement during a news event a "call". The real move has yet to happen. I'm adding more shorts now up to 1.265 where my opinion is any rally will be capped. Everyone is getting long. I like that. Good luck.
good luck
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #12,957
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:14am Apr 18, 2018 9:14am
people screaming bearish, yet it jump through the roof....
thanks god I stop the second it hit daily pivots
  • #12,958
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:28am Apr 18, 2018 9:28am
this pair is going down , its just a matter of time
  • #12,959
  • Apr 18, 2018 9:31am Apr 18, 2018 9:31am
I just finished trading the cad interest rate decision. There was a lot of positive talk via the squawk but the risk of nafta and trade war prevented the rate hike.

I caught the move late as I had to proper digest the language as I just don't follow the volatility as that's how you get burnt when trading a risk event such a statement or speech as there could be wording at the end that changes the direction completely.
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  • #12,960
  • Apr 18, 2018 10:13am Apr 18, 2018 10:13am
bought it again at 1.26 before the press conference
Don't Worry Be Happy
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