USD/JPY Discussion

Hoping for the classic 2 way sweep. Upper cleanout and trap set past the high, clean out of the southern hemisphere is my play at least in the short term.
Of course the market may have other ideas,lol Market structure and market flow is my guide!

USD/JPY retreated from the fresh 7-week high as US stocks turned negative. The pair is nearing the 107.30 and this might bring it back into the range of the previous sessions between 107.40 and 106.60.

closed 107.33

Haha the Syrian attacks were so predictable n stupid!

Hi Guys
For your weekly reading Price Action Trading Tips.

Pair Analysis
Time frame Daily
Indicators of MA, Fibo, and Supdem lines, RSI,
UJ pair condition at daily time frame at market closing time. still shows that the bearish trend with the correction to form the resistance at the level of 107.79 and the market penetration price in may at levell 107.37
while indhi RSI in the daily time frame is still at level above 50 with bearish weak. which becomes the correction pattern of this pair is in the fibo still below fibo 38. with trend level 100 below MA line.

there is currently no prospect situation, next week to me.
so I wait, h1

The opening price is above pivot 107.46 indicating an uptrend.
Support Level: 107.13, 106.89, 106.56.
Resistance Level: 107.70, 108.03, 108.27.
The MACD histogram is above the zero level.
Parabolic SAR indicator (step 0.02, max 0.2) indicates the price is heading down.

Trading recommendations: Buy.
TP: At the resistance level: 107.70, 108.03, 108.27.
SL: One level below the entry point.

USD/JPY just hit the Daily Pivot of 107.17 and is getting a little bit of resistance. Could be just a small re-tracement seeing the 3 black bears just finishing.

"USD retail sale news releases today are expected to be bullish given the higher gas prices and average rise in hourly earnings" (Boris and Kathy Forex Weekly - Majors)"

Given this expected bullish retail data for US retail sales this downswing maybe a good opportunity to get into the daily low for USD/JPY.

I just wanted to share that after approx 3200 live trades of predominantly UJ I am finally back in black. An epic day for me.

Bulls on the dollar/yen have not been able to boast of notable successes for a long time, but Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes in the growth potential of the pair.

Currency strategists of Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that the dollar to the yen will soon resume growth and by the end of the second quarter will return to the level of 112, and the third will reach 116. The Bank sees three good reasons for this:

- discrepancy between the growth rates of the US economy and other regions, including Japan
- tightening the Fed's position
- repatriation of capital by foreign investors

The Bank recognizes that the political situation in Japan is currently not very favorable for carry-trade, but believes that the market will take into account the political risks, after which the cash flows of Japanese investors in a favorable global macroeconomics picture will be the main driver of the yen.

Seems like

I hope nfp moves the market.
exploring opportunities.h1
I'm waiting.

The Japanese currency has had a good year so far, partly because of increased speculation that the country's Central Bank will begin to abandon the huge economic stimulus that it began to apply five years ago. But the bears on the yen, insisting on the fact that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) too early start thinking about the tapering of its monetary easing, in the coming days, unable to cause for celebration. Yujiro goto, currency strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in London, they call it"the decisive two weeks to observe BOJ."

Here are events that could affect the opinion of the regulator, which goto wrote in a note to customers on April 16.

Meeting of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Donald trump, which will be held on April 17-18. The key here is the degree to which trump will push vis-à-vis trade negotiations. If Japan will be able to circumvent the cornerstone of the movement towards a bilateral free trade agreement — the Japanese currency will avoid unnecessary pressure on the part of sellers.

A semi-annual report on the financial system of the Bank of Japan will be presented on April 19. This is the first report since the head of the Central Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, raised in November the question that excessively low interest rates can be counterproductive, harming the banking sector. Then such comments greatly excited the bulls on the yen and bond traders. Pointing to the healthy state of the banking system will reduce the risk of BOJ policy changes, says goto.

And finally: the decision on monetary policy on April 27. It goes without saying that there will be no change in policy, and the focus should be on the Bank of Japan's updated economic projections, including new projections for fiscal year 2020, the expert says. Less optimistic – and, in all likelihood, more realistic – inflation forecasts will show that the Bank of Japan is still far from its 2% target.

"This would be a clearer signal that the exit (from ultra-liberal politics) will not happen soon," says goto.

If the bears take over the yen situation, the USDJPY could rise to 110, he said.

nice fundamentals analysis.

Although I am scalpers, I do not see any benefit.
but it may be useful for a long time.

I've seen many calls for this 110 area but lets look at the facts. As short term yields continue higher, (ranging right now, needs to break 1.8), the Yen will continue to get stronger, until the BOJ trims QE, or US Treasuries stop their climb. Just remember Trump is adding more debt and running very large deficits, increasing the supply of treasuries. Simeple S/D, all showing the sign of higher 3 month t-bonds which results in a weaker USD.


For the USD to gain ground, the Yen's strength would have to be over come by the USD's fall. Which doesn't make sense. The fact the USD is the world's reserve currency and has been going down ever since Trump came to office, is your sign. Remember the USD's push to the moon (118.5) when Trump became president, well everything has gotten more bearish for the USD even before that push. This should mean a push below 100 at some point in the future considering that was the low right before Trump became president.

I think you will see 104 before you see 110.

this is again fundamental analysis.
maybe.

No maybe, only facts! Post 15 shines the light.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=570673

Mathematically, the odds are the same. 300 pips to both sides)))