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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #281
  • Sep 29, 2006 11:47am Sep 29, 2006 11:47am
i never use the fxdd..
is it just like mt4??
is fozzy's also work on that platform??
"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #282
  • Sep 29, 2006 4:16pm Sep 29, 2006 4:16pm
All,

Aha brought up an excellent observation when looking at the EA. It's a system question, though, not necessarily an EA question.

What do you do if you look at your charts at the beginning of the day, there's a signal, you enter, but are stopped out the same day? Do you reenter, since the daily signal is still there? Or, do you wait for the next valid setup on another day?

I assumed that you wait until the next valid setup. But, I'm not so sure.

Let the debate begin

stockwet
  • #283
  • Sep 29, 2006 4:29pm Sep 29, 2006 4:29pm
Quoting stockwet
All,

Aha brought up an excellent observation when looking at the EA. It's a system question, though, not necessarily an EA question.

What do you do if you look at your charts at the beginning of the day, there's a signal, you enter, but are stopped out the same day? Do you reenter, since the daily signal is still there? Or, do you wait for the next valid setup on another day?

I assumed that you wait until the next valid setup. But, I'm not so sure.

Let the debate begin

stockwet
If you are sticking to your system of stop-loss/TP then wait until the next signal. There will ALWAYS be more profits to have had on the horizion. Getting greedy will just get us killed.

If for some reason you screwed up your entry or you see other technicals not related to the fozzy system that say jump in, then go for it. But that would be non-related to the EA or the Fozzy method.

Just my thoughts.

Jason
  • #284
  • Sep 30, 2006 2:42pm Sep 30, 2006 2:42pm
I use FXCM charts and when setting up my Bolinger bands it gives me two options
Average (which I enter 20) & Standard deviation 2.0 or whatever I want to add.
I have tried numerous configurations but I can only get 2 bands to display the middle band is consistanly missing. any thoughts...Jim!
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  • #285
  • Sep 30, 2006 6:26pm Sep 30, 2006 6:26pm
  •  McD
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: -Pecunia non olet- | 24 Posts
Quoting jamesr24
I use FXCM charts and when setting up my Bolinger bands it gives me two options
Average (which I enter 20) & Standard deviation 2.0 or whatever I want to add.
I have tried numerous configurations but I can only get 2 bands to display the middle band is consistanly missing. any thoughts...Jim!

Hello James !

It's just easy: the core of the Bollinger Bands is a
SMA20 (Simple Moving Average),but is mostly not displayed;
you can add it separately; also you could omit the BB
and the cross would be correct also.


thanks,
McD
  • #286
  • Oct 1, 2006 8:45am Oct 1, 2006 8:45am
Thank you. So to recap...
Settings On Daily
8 period RSI
8 MA
Bollinger Bands(middle band is ma20)

Long-8RSI crosses the 8MA below the midlle BB
Short-8RSI crosses the 8MA above the middle BB

Trade the opening of the next bar on the daily to confirm cross is accurate.
SL set at the low or high of previous candle depending if you are enter a b/s.

Trade 2-3 lots, take profit on first one at 40ish pips, move up SL on other two, 80pips take profit on second lot, move SL up on third and let it ride.

After reading all the posts what have I left out or misinterrupted or what other indicators or ideas should also be implemented. Thanks everyone for their continued input...
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  • #287
  • Oct 1, 2006 8:51am Oct 1, 2006 8:51am
Quoting jamesr24
Thank you. So to recap...
Settings On Daily
8 period RSI
8 MA
Bollinger Bands(middle band is ma20)

Long-8RSI crosses the 8MA below the midlle BB
Short-8RSI crosses the 8MA above the middle BB

Trade the opening of the next bar on the daily to confirm cross is accurate.
SL set at the low or high of previous candle depending if you are enter a b/s.

Trade 2-3 lots, take profit on first one at 40ish pips, move up SL on other two, 80pips take profit on second lot, move SL up on third and let it ride.

After reading all the posts what have I left out or misinterrupted or what other indicators or ideas should also be implemented. Thanks everyone for their continued input...
You got it..

Jason
  • #288
  • Oct 2, 2006 10:24am Oct 2, 2006 10:24am
Quoting BeachBum
I have been experimenting with using the ATR as a basis for fixing the S/L and will post a few observations about this over the weekend as well as my trade journal for the week.
Where will those observations be posted, here or the journal folder?
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #289
  • Oct 2, 2006 10:29am Oct 2, 2006 10:29am
I'll post them here, later today..............I've been very busy, sorry!



Quoting cisco
Where will those observations be posted, here or the journal folder?
  • #290
  • Oct 2, 2006 11:06am Oct 2, 2006 11:06am
Quoting BeachBum
I'll post them here, later today..............I've been very busy, sorry!
I modified stockwet's EA to use ATR for the stoploss (along with a cushion) and it seems to work much better than high/lows. Check it out in his thread if you're interested. I'll be incorporating ATR into my process.
So far so good.
  • #291
  • Oct 2, 2006 11:14am Oct 2, 2006 11:14am
I have 9 charts that I'm monitoring. So far today there's 8 fresh crosses. I don't know if they'll still be there at 5 p.m. when I get a new candle, but right now it looks like a very busy day for the "Fozzy."
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #292
  • Oct 2, 2006 12:02pm Oct 2, 2006 12:02pm
Last week I decided to trade the "fozzy" method using the ATR (10) for setting S/L, partly because I have learned that if the price moves more than that from the 5 PM EST close price, the trade is most likely a looser. I have 10 months of trading records to look at based on what happens to price after that 5 PM close, but I think I will arrive at a uniform S/L equal to about 60% or 70% of the ATR. I'll post more on that later.

My trading started Monday 5 PM EST for four days (no trading Sun-Mon because of circumstances, not strategy):

Mon-Tues:
eur/cad.................+57
audnzd.................-115
cad/jpy................+132
eur/aud.................+15

Tues-Wed:
eur/usd.................B/E
gbp/usd...............+178
usd/jpy.................+28
gbp/jpy................-130
aud/jpy.................B/E
nzd/usd................still open, currently at B/E
aud/nzd................still open, currently -45

Wed-Thurs:
usd/chf................+37
eur/jpy.................still open, currently +70
eur/gbp................still open, currently +30

Thurs-Fri:
eur/aud................still open, currently +50
eur/chf.................B/E

Total booked: 202, on the table: 105

I did not spend much time managing these trades. If I had, the results would have been better. But I didn't want to have to do that, instead prefering the "fozzy" philosophy.

One week of successful trading does not validate this as a method that will stand up in the long run.............but I think it will, and intend on finding out with a lot of forward testing. I'll post interesting things as they happen and a report at the end of each week. Also some more thoughts on S/L.
  • #293
  • Oct 2, 2006 12:48pm Oct 2, 2006 12:48pm
Quoting BeachBum
Last week I decided to trade the "fozzy" method using the ATR (10) for setting S/L, partly because I have learned that if the price moves more than that from the 5 PM EST close price, the trade is most likely a looser. I have 10 months of trading records to look at based on what happens to price after that 5 PM close, but I think I will arrive at a uniform S/L equal to about 60% or 70% of the ATR. I'll post more on that later.

My trading started Monday 5 PM EST for four days (no trading Sun-Mon because of circumstances, not strategy):

Mon-Tues:
eur/cad.................+57
audnzd.................-115
cad/jpy................+132
eur/aud.................+15

Tues-Wed:
eur/usd.................B/E
gbp/usd...............+178
usd/jpy.................+28
gbp/jpy................-130
aud/jpy.................B/E
nzd/usd................still open, currently at B/E
aud/nzd................still open, currently -45

Wed-Thurs:
usd/chf................+37
eur/jpy.................still open, currently +70
eur/gbp................still open, currently +30

Thurs-Fri:
eur/aud................still open, currently +50
eur/chf.................B/E

Total booked: 202, on the table: 105

I did not spend much time managing these trades. If I had, the results would have been better. But I didn't want to have to do that, instead prefering the "fozzy" philosophy.

One week of successful trading does not validate this as a method that will stand up in the long run.............but I think it will, and intend on finding out with a lot of forward testing. I'll post interesting things as they happen and a report at the end of each week. Also some more thoughts on S/L.
Those are awesome results! Any trader, anywhere, would be delighted with results like that. Thanks for the report, great job!

Were you using 1 lot or 2? Were you also using a 50 pip SL once you got into positive territory?

Steve
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #294
  • Oct 2, 2006 1:16pm Oct 2, 2006 1:16pm
Hi Steve....

In keeping with the KISS method, I traded single lots. More lots and Vegas fibs would have generated more profit, but I was shooting for what I consider minimum, basic results with the "fozzy". I moved S/L to B/E when ATR value reached, then gradually moved S/L up to lock in profit. Again, more management and tighter stops would have yielded greater gain. That's what I'm doing this week.

BB

Quoting cisco
Were you using 1 lot or 2? Were you also using a 50 pip SL once you got into positive territory?

Steve
  • #295
  • Oct 2, 2006 1:37pm Oct 2, 2006 1:37pm
what is the ATR? I like day trading so why cannot this be used on the 1hr & 4 hr, backtesting seems to work provided the cross is confirmed by the next candle. I am sure the pips will be less but certainly obtainable. Any thoughts? I will be trading it this week in my live mini account and let you know...
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  • #296
  • Oct 2, 2006 1:56pm Oct 2, 2006 1:56pm
Quoting jamesr24
what is the ATR? I like day trading so why cannot this be used on the 1hr & 4 hr, backtesting seems to work provided the cross is confirmed by the next candle. I am sure the pips will be less but certainly obtainable. Any thoughts? I will be trading it this week in my live mini account and let you know...

ATR = average true range.

Developed by J. Welles Wilder and introduced in his book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems (1978), the Average True Range (ATR) indicator measures a security's volatility. As such, the indicator does not provide an indication of price direction or duration, simply the degree of price movement or volatility.

from here
So far so good.
  • #297
  • Oct 2, 2006 2:03pm Oct 2, 2006 2:03pm
I'll be interested to see how this works for you, please post your results. Thanks!



Quoting jamesr24
what is the ATR? I like day trading so why cannot this be used on the 1hr & 4 hr, backtesting seems to work provided the cross is confirmed by the next candle. I am sure the pips will be less but certainly obtainable. Any thoughts? I will be trading it this week in my live mini account and let you know...
  • #298
  • Oct 2, 2006 2:17pm Oct 2, 2006 2:17pm
So where do you recommend the settings to be on the atr and I am assuming you set it in the rsi?...
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  • #299
  • Oct 2, 2006 3:00pm Oct 2, 2006 3:00pm
If you are going to trade this method on 1 hr and/or 4 hr charts, the ATR will not be useful to you. Why not explain to us how you will decide the S/L and T/P values on these smaller time frames.



Quoting jamesr24
So where do you recommend the settings to be on the atr and I am assuming you set it in the rsi?...
  • #300
  • Oct 2, 2006 3:28pm Oct 2, 2006 3:28pm
I typically trade TA using the 1hr, 30min, 10in or the 5 min candles and news, i stay pretty true to taking 5-10 pips with usually no s/l because i am monitoring it but if I feel it is volitale I will set my S/L at 20 plus my spread.

But with the Fozzy, it is somewhat new, for instance on the 1hr. eur/usd I got a cross above the middle 20ma before 2pm est. the 2pm candle closed and confirmed the cross so I sold at 2738. So now I wait and see if I get 10 pips out of this trade. Let me add that I rarely trade after the e/u session is over say 11-11:30AM because of lack of activity. But this is a test so we will see what happens, when i leave I will certainly set a s/L at 20 pips out at 58.

What I hope to do is when I trade TA on the 1 hour, 2 hour and 4 hour, this fozzy method will confirm my trades. I will let you know sooonnnnnn.....
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