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Supply and Demand trading with Fibs

  • #1,881
  • Apr 9, 2018 4:59am Apr 9, 2018 4:59am
Quoting fxderek
{quote} Hi, Cableguy. im a kind of reversal trader, and the 123 is an important part to consider when i chose my reversal levels. don’t know whether or not you also trade reversals, if any, could you please share some of your opinions on how you pick the SD zones when trading reversal? best regards.
Hi Derek,

I think that the answer is too complex to explain in one post!

I would suggest that every trade i take is a reversal, but i try to take them back into the underlying trend, (everything is fractal, so i'm talking about the next largest cycle), thus i am predicting the end of a corrective move.

Along the way I've practiced Elliott Wave for 7 years or more and can't help but to view the market in phases or cycles.

Combining Fibonacci levels together with wave counts can be very accurate and i have a thread with many examples of this, but in all honesty, keeping it as simple as possible. I will look for a 123 to trigger by break of point 2 and then wait for a retrace close to point 3. If it doesn't pullback, hey ho, wait for the next one.

I spent years taking the triggers of 123's but that puts the risk too high compared to waiting for the pullback to original S/D level at start of the move.

Market structure (HH/HL's or vica versa), then pullback, without breaking that trend, then 123 back into underlying trend;

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  • #1,882
  • Apr 9, 2018 5:06am Apr 9, 2018 5:06am
I should add perhaps, that i find trading the NQ Futures market far better than FX. There is a level playing field and tonnes more movement.

Just as an example, here is a chart showing 15 minutes of trading starting at 10:30 US time (from last week);

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Both trades are 123, trigger, deep pullback to retest start of S/D. That is when i will enter, with SL just above/below point 1 (or 3 if i'm feeling more aggressive).

There was also a pullback trade, short, inbetween, but i was too slow placing my limit order, deleted it and missed another retest of the same level, but it was moving very very quickly.

The 123 at the low, was also prior Demand, looking left.
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  • #1,883
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:21am Apr 9, 2018 6:21am
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} Hi Derek, I think that the answer is too complex to explain in one post! I would suggest that every trade i take is a reversal, but i try to take them back into the underlying trend, (everything is fractal, so i'm talking about the next largest cycle), thus i am predicting the end of a corrective move. Along the way I've practiced Elliott Wave for 7 years or more and can't help but to view the market in phases or cycles. Combining Fibonacci levels together with wave counts can be very accurate and i have a thread with many examples of this,...
Thanks for your kindness Cableguy. i just find some 123s, marked them with ellipses and arrows, ellipses are good ones that i will take, and the arrows are bad based on my experiences, i probably will ignore them. Do not know if they are reasonable to you? And the problem is that i could not tell more about why they are good or bad, except that " this is a flag".
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Voll Verdienst, doch dichterisch, wohnt der Mensch auf der Erde.
  • #1,884
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:46am Apr 9, 2018 6:46am
Quoting The Cableguy
I should add perhaps, that i find trading the NQ Futures market far better than FX. There is a level playing field and tonnes more movement. Just as an example, here is a chart showing 15 minutes of trading starting at 10:30 US time (from last week); {image} Both trades are 123, trigger, deep pullback to retest start of S/D. That is when i will enter, with SL just above/below point 1 (or 3 if i'm feeling more aggressive). There was also a pullback trade, short, inbetween, but i was too slow placing my limit order, deleted it and missed another retest...
I trade futures as while. you always enter with limit order?
i marked some level on your chart, will you set limit order at there?
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Voll Verdienst, doch dichterisch, wohnt der Mensch auf der Erde.
  • #1,885
  • Apr 9, 2018 6:59am Apr 9, 2018 6:59am
Trades journal http://t.me/wicksfxlabs Taking into account all what deankenny21 its imperative to note that supply and demand trading is among the most profitable approach. However, its a mystery and a fallacy to many. Everyone has their own views on technical analysis and more important how supply and demand works. But all these are self centred approaches unless you were trained by the market itself.
I document my trades here http://t.me/wicksfxlabs only trading from the extreme demand zone and extreme supply zone which is hard for new traders but reduces risk and drawdowns.
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  • #1,886
  • Apr 9, 2018 7:04am Apr 9, 2018 7:04am
when you have a 123 at the end of a trend that's a no brainer
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  • #1,887
  • Apr 9, 2018 9:04am Apr 9, 2018 9:04am
Quoting fxderek
{quote} I trade futures as while. you always enter with limit order? i marked some level on your chart, will you set limit order at there? {image}

Yes, i generally always use limit orders. If i consider we are clearly in the powerful 3rd wave, i will use stop orders if the leg 3 (of 123) was small, back into trend...

It looks to me like your levels are more Support/Resistance type than Supply/Demand.

I want a retest that is deep, to remove most of the risk, we want a reaction there as a minimum - enough to get stoploss to BE quickly, so i am basically looking to identify the start of where buyers or sellers previously entered the market (some examples in red rectangles). The stronger the reaction, the better, so we want to see nice thrust bars, to give evidence of this. If we can retest near the start of the move, it is worth the risk in my mind. That said, i don't like to see a pullback immediately before a level. If i get a fill, i will look to remove risk as soon as possible, if it pulls back before a fill, i will likely remove the order and look for the next set-up. That's the beauty of trading something like the NQ - set-ups come along every few minutes, cos she's a lively little thing!)

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The important thing to realise is that there will be losers. That's why i stress to identify the start of the move, but nothing is for granted. If the trend has changed then it can storm straight through a previous S/D level without hesitation or reaction.

That's why we need to watch market structure (HH/HL's etc)

I've not conversed with Dean before, but he got this down to a T... I see he was here, lurking earlier, but hasn't posted much of late.

Divergence (above) is another trader who should be watched and listened too. I've learnt a tonne from him over the years...
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  • #1,888
  • Apr 11, 2018 5:00pm Apr 11, 2018 5:00pm
Quoting The Cableguy
{quote} Yes, i generally always use limit orders. If i consider we are clearly in the powerful 3rd wave, i will use stop orders if the leg 3 (of 123) was small, back into trend... It looks to me like your levels are more Support/Resistance type than Supply/Demand. I want a retest that is deep, to remove most of the risk, we want a reaction there as a minimum - enough to get stoploss to BE quickly, so i am basically looking to identify the start of where buyers or sellers previously entered the market (some examples in red rectangles). The stronger...


hi Cableguy

interesting way of trading.

how do you exit trades?, because I notice your profit amounts are all different and it's looking like you're not using a fixed tp
  • #1,889
  • Apr 12, 2018 3:57am Apr 12, 2018 3:57am
Quoting kain775
{quote} hi Cableguy interesting way of trading. how do you exit trades?, because I notice your profit amounts are all different and it's looking like you're not using a fixed tp

The target always changes depending on the set-up, so although my order does have a set TP, i usually get taken out by stop instead. I chase PA up/down with my SL as it prints, after a retest of entry, i will usually chase down a tick above/below each completed candle, but if the current candle is going strongly in my favour and i am already +20, i will even chase down within that candle.

It's all about accumulation of points. A +20 here, a +15 or +12 there and you can quickly amount a nice total. You would need to watch the NQ on 133 tick to really understand that it is printing so fast, that it really is about grabbing what you can.

If i see a strong Elliott Wave set-up, suggesting eg, a fresh low (if short), i will try to hold on for this target as a minimum, but that is often more difficult in reality than in theory.

Yesterday, i viewed the PA that had just printed as an 'ABC' move (corrective, which suggests trend to continue afterwards). When a 3w (abc) move is followed by another 3w move to create a double bottom/top, it is likely A & B of a flat correction, thus wave C should not travel far beyond wave A end. Look for a 123 reversal at that point, trigger and pullback, et voila, you get a great set-up with target of fresh low. Even then, i was too aggressive with my stoploss chase, not wanting to give any back;

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  • #1,890
  • Apr 12, 2018 12:30pm Apr 12, 2018 12:30pm
Todays effort;

3 +1's to begin with (covers commissions), then +18, using aggressive SL chase;

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Then a loser for -8, followed by a limit TP at +30. It happened in a blink of an eye, once it broke;

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  • #1,891
  • Apr 21, 2018 5:47am Apr 21, 2018 5:47am
Quoting deankenny21
Sometimes it feels too easy!! Supply and demand, god I just love it!! HAd this as a buy limit and woke up to this {image}
Thanks Dean for this amazing amazing thread! Be blessed abundantly!
My question here is why would you take this 1 hour demand and price has taken long to get to this zone? Looking back to your rules, you say amount of time taken to get back to the zone invalidates the zone..

Also, would you take trades off immediate entry into Supply or demand zones? Or what would be your trigger for entry ?

Thanks
Ryan
  • #1,892
  • Jan 18, 2019 1:11am Jan 18, 2019 1:11am
I cannot see deankenny's charts everytime I click it redirect me to imageshack homepage, any idea how?
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #1,893
  • Nov 22, 2019 10:17am Nov 22, 2019 10:17am
Hi guys,
i developed Trading box tool
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  • #1,894
  • Dec 15, 2019 11:14pm Dec 15, 2019 11:14pm
Quoting deankenny21
Now I'm the first one to say nothing is 100%, and if they say they are, they are lying. However, I so far have a 100% record trading bitcoin, I have never met a chart that plays by every single rule of supply and demand. Please see my 2 pics, I gave a signal on Twitter "before the event" about Bitcoin in supply, now in 2nd pic, the result. Absolutely loving bitcoin at the moment. I guess the lack of banks deter from manipulation the currencies get which can break supply zones sometimes. {image} {image}

Hi Dean. I just came across this thread and would like to thank you for the contribution you have made to help other traders here. I trade supply & demand myself and found some great confluences I can start looking for on my charts.

Just wondering if you are still trading Supply & Demand?
  • #1,895
  • Feb 4, 2020 8:36am Feb 4, 2020 8:36am
Hi FF Members,

Can anyone verify if the zones I marked are correct?
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  • #1,896
  • Feb 4, 2020 1:51pm Feb 4, 2020 1:51pm
are any indicators that paint these zones ?
Everything flows. Learn to Earn.
  • #1,897
  • Feb 11, 2020 5:26am Feb 11, 2020 5:26am
Quoting ecryptom
are any indicators that paint these zones ?
Check the attachments section of this thread as in the screenshot below. Should be called 'supdem xxx'
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  • #1,898
  • Feb 11, 2020 5:30am Feb 11, 2020 5:30am
Quoting MvpC
Hi FF Members, Can anyone verify if the zones I marked are correct? {image}

Just my 2 cents. The bottom zone is great as price pushed away in a strong move. The top zone didn't push away strongly so I'd consider the zone to be weaker
  • #1,899
  • Feb 24, 2020 9:31am Feb 24, 2020 9:31am
Quoting tankybank
{quote} Just my 2 cents. The bottom zone is great as price pushed away in a strong move. The top zone didn't push away strongly so I'd consider the zone to be weaker
Noticed that, thanks for reviewing.
  • #1,900
  • May 26, 2020 3:15pm May 26, 2020 3:15pm
Hello Everyone, i am a new supply and demand trader. I am using fractals with Supply and demand, what is new in this group, which strategies are you guys combining with supply and demand? from where can i get the ratios for the fibbonacci and how can i learn using it?

Thanks!
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