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Trading with Fibs...and Targets...!

  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Nov 7, 2006 6:24pm Nov 7, 2006 6:24pm
This thread is also for the Newbies... who are having difficulties with Trading Fibonacci Retracements and Extentions.

I would be soon posting my images with some description.

I would encourage other traders who have a good knowhow on Fib, to post their replies on this Thread.
thanks sachin! will be looking forward to your posts and welcome them with interest! Carry on and happy trading!
I for one would be interested in learning Fib.
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
YES sachin ..

Now you are giving what many ppl need to know .. THANX A LOT ..
Waiting for ur posts .

Hi!I use Fibs but I am a noob and I need to learn more.This could be an interesting thread.Thanks!
Thanks Sachin,
So many people including mysel are having p[roblem using fibo in trading.
I must confess, i will appreciate if you can do as you have said.

Quoting sachin
This thread is also for the Newbies... who are having difficulties with Trading Fibonacci Retracements and Extentions.

I would be soon posting my images with some description.

I would encourage other traders who have a good knowhow on Fib, to post their replies on this Thread.
Very much looking forward to the education here
Hi,
I m realy glad to see the feedback by u folks, that u r realy interested in learing Fib studies

Lets roll up the sleeves and get started...

Ok, first of all i would like to tell u tat wat Fib % numbers do i use and which color they are assigned.

Fib %no. used are: 38.2, 50.0, 61.8, 78.2, 121.4, 161.8, 200.0, 261.8 and 300.0

Ok from 0 to 121.8% all are in Black color (i:e 38.2, 50.0, 61.8 and 78.2)
161.8 is Orange color
from 200 to 300 all are Red color. (i:e 200, 261.8 and 300)

Wat i have thought is tat i will try to put all the Recent charts so You ppl can literealy go on ur charts and try to cross chk it how it worked exactly.

I will put Images of mostly Majors as i trade in them. But often i chk other cross currency pairs aswell if i find fibs have played a significant role i will pop a image of that pair aswell.

Tip: I would like u guys who are realy intrested to learn fibs, try to apply the methods in different time frames and play with it to get more out of it.
1st method depends on days high and low. Its a very simple and easy method but very very effective.

All u have to do is draw a Fib studies from days high to days low (in the market direction) as u can see in the chart and it will
project u the next days Target points.
OR
In simple words, U can get todays Traget point by drawing Fib studies on Yesteerdays High and low of the day.
chart:1 6th Nov.'06 €/$ 15-min

Here one can see how did the fibs played a nice role in predicting the market.
One can see a bounce at 78.6% and then straight at 161.8% went up abit to touch 200% but couldnt retraced down hasistate at 161.8% and then again up during
U.S session straight to 300% fib line. which are circled in Red color.


Look how that worked out exactly to the pip....hmmm
Attached Image
chart:2 6th Nov.'06 Gbp/$ 15-min

One can see price on 7th nov. went to 121.4% retraced towards 100% (which is circled in Red) and then straight to 200% fib line where it toped out and all the hesitation occured.
Attached Image
chart:3 6th Nov.'06 $/Chf 15-min

On 7th Nov. price crossed 121.4% and nearly went to touch 161.8% but didnt and retraced back and then on 100% which is previous days low it bounced and the straight down to 261.8%
Cool isn't it....
Attached Image
chart:4 6th Nov.'06 $/Jpy 15-min

One can see on the chart, price went acorss 100% fib which is Low of 6th and tried to touch 121.4%
But could'nt, Retraced back to 78.6% and droped straight to 161.8% where u can see all the hesitation occered. which is the place where i like to take away my profits from the table.
If the price goes abit further, i realy dont care those 7-10 extra pips which it moved extra.
Attached Image
hello sachin ..

I just wanted to say that it's REALLY HARD to get ur points from these pics .. dont u think so ?! PLZ try to post better pics .

AND THANX A LOT FOR YOUR WORK
I don't think drawing fib lines on such short term charts is very useful. How can you not hit a fib? They are only a few pips apart from each other.
Quoting philmcgrew
I don't think drawing fib lines on such short term charts is very useful. How can you not hit a fib? They are only a few pips apart from each other.
Hi Phil,

Glad to see ur post here.... for ur doubt tat i used 15-min charts and its very short term chart so fibs should hit some point, I will say FACTORAL GEOMETRY.

If u know abt Factoral Geometry it says... the thing which works on 5-min should work on 15 min, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, Daily and so on.

I posted charts of 15mins coz i trade mostly 15-min charts, but one can always chk the fibs in Diffeerent Time frames.... as i have mentioned in my other previous post.

All one has to do open any time frame they trade in.... and draw a Previous day HIGH-LOW Fib Studies and u will find the same results in ur Time Frame, it doesnt matter if its 5-mins or 4-hour chart.
-------------------------------

For coolhell

Yes i understand the images are not that clear as i wanted it to be... actualy when i was uploading images it said i can't upload images with higer resolution of 600*600, so i had to Resize my images which made it abit unclear aswell.

Actualy, i would like to know if u guys out there know some way to UPLOAD BETTER AND CLEAR Images. Let me know. Wud be appriciated.

cheers... let me know if the things i mentioned works in ur time frame.
Quoting sachin
Actualy, i would like to know if u guys out there know some way to UPLOAD BETTER AND CLEAR Images. Let me know. Wud be appriciated.

cheers... let me know if the things i mentioned works in ur time frame.
Yes, 600x600 is the max, but you could just save your image as a jpg or a gif and then zip the file. Then you will be able to upload it and we can click on it and then display it... That way, your image is ok larger...
Quoting smjones
Yes, 600x600 is the max, but you could just save your image as a jpg or a gif and then zip the file. Then you will be able to upload it and we can click on it and then display it... That way, your image is ok larger...
Or you can use 3rd party to upload the files.

I don't know why FF doesn't do that (3rd party file storing) or to allow you to upload bigger image. I mean charts are a big part of forex, and 600X600 sucks.
Try hard, think fast, die young
Quoting sachin
Hi Phil,

Glad to see ur post here.... for ur doubt tat i used 15-min charts and its very short term chart so fibs should hit some point, I will say FACTORAL GEOMETRY.

If u know abt Factoral Geometry it says... the thing which works on 5-min should work on 15 min, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, Daily and so on.

I posted charts of 15mins coz i trade mostly 15-min charts, but one can always chk the fibs in Diffeerent Time frames.... as i have mentioned in my other previous post.

All one has to do open any time frame they trade in.... and draw a Previous day HIGH-LOW Fib Studies and u will find the same results in ur Time Frame, it doesnt matter if its 5-mins or 4-hour chart.
Yes, I am familiar with the fractal behavior of markets. I even believe in it. Here's where things go wrong:

Let's say you have a 100 pip move like the ones you have shown on your charts. You then draw a 23%, 38%, 50%, 62%, and a 78% line. On a 100 pip move those numbers are actual pip values as well as percent. In other words, 23 pips retracement, 38 pips....you get the idea.

Now, I assume that for you the declare a fib stopped price you can be off by a couple pips. Giving you the benefit of the doubt, I'll give you 5 pips either side. So, if price retraces 50%, or 50 pips, you can say the fib worked if price turns anywhere from 45-55 pips. This is a 10 pip band. Given that you have 5 fib numbers and each have a 10 pip band where you can declare magical success, we find that in a 100 pip retracement you get to say that fibs worked 50 out of those 100 pips. Guess what? That is a 50/50 chance. No better than a coin flip! How anyone can say that contains any statistical accuracy is beyond me.

I normally wouldn't have corrected you or stated my opinion but you sort of came off as an authority on fibs and I didn't think it was right to not have an opposing view.

By the way, 50% is not a fib number, it's 48.6.
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Edited at 9:10am Nov 10, 2006 8:43am | Edited at 9:10am
Phil, I agree with you, but you make one small mistake.
First 2 numbers of fibonacci array are 0 and 1.
How can somebody, anybody get 38.2, 61.8 or whatever decimal number starting from 0 and 1 and just adding.

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765, 10946, 17711 ...
Where is 61.8?
Where is 38.2?
I know that 38.2 = 100 - 61.8
Where is 100 in the line?
I know that to consecutive fib numbers divided will get you arround 1.618. What does 1.618 got to do with 61.8?

More info on fibonacci number

If you tweak the numbers in different way, you can get any number you want. Just tell me a number and i will get it from a fibonacci number.

Sounds cool fibonacci retracement, but it's not fibonacci
Let's call it dof retracement

Market retrace, so we have to keep that in mind. If it's fibs levels, if it's our own levels, doesn't matter as long as they are tested, work and we can apply them.
Try hard, think fast, die young
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