Manual Backtesting Charts

Quoting Horace Kent

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Here's a spot to place charts of any MANUAL backtesting you've done. I'll kick it off with a trade in OCT. 2001 that was good for 292 pips...

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Quoting daerus

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Correct me if I'm wrong...but aren't you suppose to close out of a position if you get a signal in the opposite direction? I see a couple places where you would have gotten a long signal after the short, which, according to Mouteki's rules, the short signal should have been closed.

Just an observation, and I could be tottally incorrect.

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Quoting GreatYves

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Correct me if i'm wrong, At PP of 292pips, Mr Mouteki suggest a 3:1 SL so 97pips SL doesn't get trigger trade was valid.

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Quoting daerus

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I'm not saying the SL was triggered.

As per Mouteki's rules, if we are short a position, and we get a new signal in the opposite direction (a buy signal), then we close out of the short, and open a position in the new direction.

Here's a copy of that chart that might help, I point out a couple of potential buy signals after we take the short (the white lines and lettering are what I have added):

http://picnac.com/images/5505chart.jpg

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Quoting daerus

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Correct me if I'm wrong...but aren't you suppose to close out of a position if you get a signal in the opposite direction? I see a couple places where you would have gotten a long signal after the short, which, according to Mouteki's rules, the short signal should have been closed.

Just an observation, and I could be tottally incorrect.

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Quoting hans_gregor

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Can you tell me where did you read this? I think I missed something. On the other hand, if what you said is correct, why worth to put a SL if sometime, between the start of the trade and reach of the target, will be a stop(reverse) signal? I think something is not right. If you start a trade, you have only two options:
- get to the target profit
- get to the stop loss
It doesn't seems to me to be very reliable to stop a trade only because you have a reverse signal. Since I study this method on the charts, I saw winning trades which missed SL with a few points. But also I saw good signals which was in fact bad trades.

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Quoting Horace Kent

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Hi Daerus,

Ofcourse you are correct. I should have indicated my thoughts about this trade to explain.

Because the 14527 break was so significant, I would have had my stop above it. Now obviously that's easy to say in hindsight, but there it is.

Either way, it's a winning trade, but you are right, per strict Mouteki methodology, a trendline break in the opposite direction would signal a reversal of position.

Here is where discretion must be used in what is, to this point a largely mechanical method of entry.

best regards,
HK

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Quoting Horace Kent

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Hi Daerus,

Ofcourse you are correct. I should have indicated my thoughts about this trade to explain.

Because the 14527 break was so significant, I would have had my stop above it. Now obviously that's easy to say in hindsight, but there it is.

Either way, it's a winning trade, but you are right, per strict Mouteki methodology, a trendline break in the opposite direction would signal a reversal of position.

Here is where discretion must be used in what is, to this point a largely mechanical method of entry.

best regards,
HK

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Quoting daerus

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Hi hans gregor,

Mouteki used this technique in the powerpoint presentation when he showed us the backtest of July (I think it was July - I don't have the presentation right now).

Anyway, the presentation is somewhere in the large thread, I can't remember where, unfortunetely.

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Quoting aha

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And, IMHO, when backtesting a system, we should stick to the system, not to add discretion, unless discretion is part of the system. Otherwise it will be testing our descretion instead of the system itself -- different tester will get different results.

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Quoting moutekitrader

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Well, that is what I said isn't it Heres an idea, if you want results on this method you can get them yourself according to the rules of the mouteki method posted in this forum. My past trading results don't reflect true results of this program, only backtesting can as in live trades I enter and exit a lot differently than just according to this method in this forum. So, if you want the absolute true backtested results of this system, you will have to do some work on your own and not wait to get it from anyone else. With this said, why dont we all stop expecting and start doing. You have all in your presence the layout of the mouteki method as released in this public forum. Not much more can be given by me, so why not focus on what you have and thrive on it. You all have the layout of the program so if you want results go figure them out, if you want to know what currencies work best, go figure it out. I think you get the point I am trying to make, if not let me know and I can shed some more light on this subject, but for now I'll keep it short and sweet so I can get back to my "productive" work...

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Quoting jumper

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Now who were those loudspeakers who were wrestling people down when they said this wasn't the holy grail? And that one wasn't right to tamper with this divine artefact?

*Jumper muses...*

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Quoting aha

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You.

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Quoting nutmg12

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Aha;<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

Thank you for your wonderful contributions to this topic. I wonder what your feelings are on Back testing the "Method" after the Mouteki Post 1657. For some reason this post has gone largely without comment by the community. Prior to this Mouteki himself mentioned in a couple of his examples that he didn’t exactly follow the rules of "His System". IMO what he has revealed is the "Mouteki System" is only a framework. Since he has not shared or given any hints as too how he trades during News Releases, Specific Market conditions or any of the other pitfalls that exist in the real time Forex market we cannot truly backtest this system. IMHO it’s a waste of time.<o></o>

That said he has given us enough to be successful. We just need to grab the Bull by the Horns and Wrestle the Bear.<o></o>

We need to turn our focus to determining good filters to ensure the highest success.<o></o>

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Quoting aha

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I noticed #1657 (see #1665), and I noticed the need for filters at #1300.

But before adding filters, I think we should optimize a couple of parameters within the parameters first, 3 I can think of: ST, TP, and an offset from TL to recognize as a break. I already implement these parameters in my EA at EA factory and can use the computer to optimize them automatically against history data. Anyone got a fast computer and interested in doing so can just go ahead and do it on different pairs. I can provide guidance if you don't know how to do it. I am just too busy answering questions now since the thread is up and running.

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Quoting twinchell

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So basically this is EA #2765 that takes one traders method, "optimizes" a few parameters, adds a few "filters" and in the end is utter trash. I wish you the best of luck, however.

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Quoting aha

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Hi TwinChell,

I am not saying this is going to be successful, it's just something I like to try. The reason I wanted to optimize those parameters is because many trades in the backtesting were profitable in the beginning. They were stopped out because the TPs were too far for them. Also some trades should be a big winner but was stopped out just a few pips over the ST.

Thank you for wishing me luck, same to you too.
aha

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