Disliked{quote} USDCAD Daily is in 4th wave. When it's completed, it will rise up to form final wave 5. Lmax live account {image}Ignored
- #12,843
- Apr 6, 2018 12:17pm Apr 6, 2018 12:17pm
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,901 Posts
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
- #12,844
- Apr 6, 2018 12:23pm Apr 6, 2018 12:23pm
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,901 Posts
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
- #12,845
- Apr 6, 2018 12:31pm Apr 6, 2018 12:31pm
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,901 Posts
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
- #12,848
- Apr 8, 2018 11:47pm Apr 8, 2018 11:47pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
- #12,851
- Apr 9, 2018 9:07am Apr 9, 2018 9:07am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts
Hope use lot benefited of the trade call today for usd/cad 
- #12,852
- Apr 9, 2018 9:17am Apr 9, 2018 9:17am
- Joined May 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,580 Posts
That was an intense drive we had. I do not have position but I did put some short orders at 1.2740. With all the saber rattling between US and China, the Nafta card seems off the radar for now.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
- #12,854
- Edited 10:18am Apr 9, 2018 9:36am | Edited 10:18am
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,901 Posts
{quote} Yep it was. Cad business survey was also very positive and that's what caused initial drive. Once nafta is done we should get a rate hike path from poloz for more volatility
As I posted above (#12844) on Friday, if oil prices bounce and the US stock market bounces then UCAD will test 1.27 and it did. Price fell 70 pips before the survey even came out.
Monthy pivot coincides with likely demand zone. Roughly 1.2668.
Booking profits now from 1.2781, no need to get greedy
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
- #12,856
- Apr 9, 2018 10:09am Apr 9, 2018 10:09am
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,901 Posts
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
- #12,858
- Edited 11:50pm Apr 9, 2018 10:19pm | Edited 11:50pm
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,901 Posts
{quote} Hmmm your analysis seems to differ from mine but I am still in profit based on how I worked the trade. If the china news had not come out then we would not have hit the r1 pivot for the day. That news was not strong enough for traders to want to hold their gains. USD/CAD does not always correlate with every WTI move. Just because WTI is up does not mean CAD goes up. I am not sure if you use any form of paid service for news like me as you would see the moves happening in real time. Hope that helps.
Oil doesn't correlate as strongly as it used to do with UCAD. However, if there is a significant move in oil then eventually price will follow. In this case as I clearly stated on Friday, if oil AND equities rebound then surely UCAD will fall, and it did.
Tell me, what news made UCAD fall from the highs created by the Chinese Yuan news? Exactly, there wasn't any.
Now, you as the guy who has a thread that states that fundamentals trump (no pun intended) technicals 100% of the time are saying that the Chinese news wasn't strong enough to break through R2 so therefore.......price just mysteriously sold off 70 pips? Not quite. As I stated already, Oil had already started moving and the US futures are available an hour after London open and were heavily green. News is more often used by the market movers to accumulate dumb money in order to fill their positions. In this case, the dumb money was going long into 1.27.
Here's the play by play of what happened.
Furthermore, think of all the conflicting UCAD news that's come out just since last week, and yet from a purely technical standpoint on Friday (post #12833) I stated that given the right conditions price could plummet down to 1.2677. Clearly the top of the first demand zone. And voila, price reached 1.2674 and has since bounced 20 pips. Doesn't mean it won't continue south and break through that zone but it's proof that fundamentals play no part in telling you where buyers/sellers are waiting.
The last thing I would ever want to do is take the advice of some fundamental guru and sit anxiously trying to click a buy/sell based on some perceived outcome of a news event. The market is much more complex than it has ever been.
Just look at all of the FOMC events over the past 2 years. People literally obsessed with Yellen's every word. The dot plot, the CPI, the future rate hike path, and on and on and on.
And here we are like 5 rate hikes later to virtually no one else raising rates and yet the US dollar has lost ground to virtually every significant currency.
All I need to know is where to buy low and where to sell high and fundamentals will never tell you that.
In any event, I cashed out my shorts and am now long from 126.8. Looking for a min bounce back up to 1.2733 ish. Perceived supply zone and a quasi completion of a substandard head and shoulders pattern. ( I know, I make this shit up as I go)
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
- #12,859
- Apr 9, 2018 10:38pm Apr 9, 2018 10:38pm
- Joined Aug 2013 | Status: Trader | 4,901 Posts
{quote} Hmmm your analysis seems to differ from mine but I am still in profit based on how I worked the trade. If the china news had not come out then we would not have hit the r1 pivot for the day. That news was not strong enough for traders to want to hold their gains. USD/CAD does not always correlate with every WTI move. Just because WTI is up does not mean CAD goes up. I am not sure if you use any form of paid service for news like me as you would see the moves happening in real time. Hope that helps.
Sorry to post a UJ chart in the UCAD thread but you posted in your thread on March 29th how JP Morgan suggested buying UJ at the days highs of 106.85. I think they had a SL at 105.2 and a TP at 110. And that's great, the trade survived a 120 pip fall basically right after their wonderful advice. NO problem if your trading multi million dollar accounts and planning on holding for weeks or months. But for me, I don't want or need my capital to be tied up in draw down for that long, or just languishing as price ranges back and forth with every new tweet or meaningless news event. 10 days later and price is at 107.16? Wow. Meanwhile, good intraday technicians are banking pips instead of having their capital lay stagnant because of a poor JP Morgan entry.
Point being, if I had a long bias for UJ on March 29th, there is ZERO PERCENT chance that myself of any other technician worth his salt would be buying at that level at that time. They were suggesting to buy literally right into the supply zone. Yea, buying high not for me. Made no sense from a technical sense whatsoever. With all the resources they have, their predictions based on fundamentals are nothing more than grasping at straws, just like any other retail chump. Not for me, not needed.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
- #12,860
- Edited 12:44am Apr 10, 2018 12:18am | Edited 12:44am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2017 | 1,576 Posts