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USD/CAD

  • #12,821
  • Apr 4, 2018 10:50pm Apr 4, 2018 10:50pm
better wage data could indicate possible 4 rate hikes as the economy improves in the US, nothing positive in Canada
Trade the news
  • #12,822
  • Apr 5, 2018 3:13am Apr 5, 2018 3:13am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Didn't happen yet
I'm still bullish on USDCAD.
  • #12,823
  • Apr 5, 2018 5:18am Apr 5, 2018 5:18am
Wow, I wouldnt be bullish till the week of the 18th. Well depending on your strategy/risk. Mine wouldn't allow me to be bullish, well not for the longer term anyway.
  • #12,824
  • Apr 5, 2018 6:20am Apr 5, 2018 6:20am
Quoting Mr.Rich
Wow, I wouldnt be bullish till the week of the 18th. Well depending on your strategy/risk. Mine wouldn't allow me to be bullish, well not for the longer term anyway.
Closed all @ 1.2800
  • #12,825
  • Apr 5, 2018 7:03am Apr 5, 2018 7:03am
CAD is pissing me off!! They keep squawking the same positive news and all these small prop funds keep buying it even though the news means nothing - "close to deal, close to deal". Its been on repeat!!

I just want cad/jpy to pullback so I can get in!!
  • #12,826
  • Apr 5, 2018 7:05am Apr 5, 2018 7:05am
Quoting Samson85
CAD is pissing me off!! They keep squawking the same positive news and all these small prop funds keep buying it even though the news means nothing - "close to deal, close to deal". Its been on repeat!! I just want cad/jpy to pullback so I can get in!!
then get in now if you are confident
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #12,827
  • Apr 5, 2018 7:36am Apr 5, 2018 7:36am
Quoting MrPresident
{quote} then get in now if you are confident

I only buy at the highs if there is strong sentiment pushing it. I just want another pull back as thats the best way to trade it. I have already taken profit on it, but the negative trade balance data today did nothing to it!!
  • #12,828
  • Apr 6, 2018 12:20am Apr 6, 2018 12:20am
The situation the Bank of Canada and the Fed are facing is not that different. Both are in the midst of a rate hike cycle and for neither of them the labour market is the main concern. In Canada the unemployment rate has been falling continuously since early 2016 and similar to the situation before the financial market crisis it is at a historic low just below 6%. Similar to the situation in the US and other industrialised nations wage growth remains subdued, but contrary to the US the inflation rate in Canada is in the middle of the BoC’s target range and also the different measures of core inflation stand at around 2%. That means the BoC would have even more reason than the Fed to hike interest rates rather quickly. It nonetheless sounded only cautiously hawkish at its meeting in March, as the NAFTA negotiations constitute a considerable risks for the domestic economy were they to fail. This week Mexican and Canadian negotiators are in Washington, next week the US are allegedly going to present a draft for an agreement. US President Trump sounded more conciliatory in some details recently (automotive industry). Even if a lot of details still require clarification the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau yesterday also sounded positive, by saying “we are in a moment where we are moving forward in a significant way”, “hopefully there will be some good news coming” and “right now, we are having a very productive moment.” Of course that would be good news for the BoC too as it would be able to continue its rate hike cycle on the basis of solid fundamental data. Against this backdrop the BoC’s interest rate meeting on 18th April will become very interesting. If the Canadian labour market report for March surprises on the upside today rate hike expectations might find support against this background, supporting the CAD ahead of the weekend.
  • #12,829
  • Apr 6, 2018 12:31am Apr 6, 2018 12:31am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I only buy at the highs if there is strong sentiment pushing it. I just want another pull back as thats the best way to trade it. I have already taken profit on it, but the negative trade balance data today did nothing to it!!
Of course negative trade balance wouldn't have that much meaning given the data prints that are due out this morning.

In addition, there's a decent inverse correlation between the Yen and the S&P500. For the most part if S&P500 is rising then CAD/JPY and other Yen pairs will be rising too.

Since the CAD/JPY thread is a habitually a dead thread, I'll post my potential CJ trade here including the comedy central bit.

Hoping the orgy of morning red news for US/CAD will get my CAD/JPY longs filled. Divergent buy zone limit orders all set in advance.

My buy zone is from 83.25 down to 82.81 with stops at 82.43 as seen on chart. Completely mechanical, emotionless trading. I just let the fundamental smart money do what it is going to do. Let it be the catalyst that moves price into my zone where I will be waiting like a lion in the grass. If the prey (price) doesn't come into my zone, I won't starve. Their will always be another unsuspecting victim heading my way.
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,830
  • Apr 6, 2018 1:12am Apr 6, 2018 1:12am
Holy macaroni, somebody is hitting the short button with some extra pazizzle.

I'm long UCAD from 1.2760 and suddenly feeling a bit more confident.
Attached Image
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,831
  • Apr 6, 2018 3:31am Apr 6, 2018 3:31am
Quoting Expo33
Holy macaroni, somebody is hitting the short button with some extra pazizzle. I'm long UCAD from 1.2760 and suddenly feeling a bit more confident. {image}
WTF IS THAT a live account?
  • #12,832
  • Edited 4:39am Apr 6, 2018 3:46am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} WTF IS THAT a live account?
You seem a bit surprised? Yes, that's a live account. FF only shows live account trades under the trade tab. Hard to know when he/she initiated the trade but they may already be 100+ pips in the green and thinking I'm either going to break even or have a huge score. Expectations are high for good US numbers. An unexpected miss with some decent CAD numbers and UCAD could fall off a cliff. A 60 pip spike down and they make nearly 1/4 million clams. Good luck to them.

By the way, right now is exactly why I don't fret about fundamentals. I am keenly aware of important news/sentiment/etc but don't try and outsmart the smart money. Seriously, market is going to open lower on trade war "concerns", blah blah etc etc so in theory risk off sentiment should be in the air to some extent. BUT, we have a literal orgy of red news in 2 hours concerning USD and CAD. Honestly, who can predict what will happen. Am I going to wait for the squawkbox to go off and then get click happy and hope I'm right. NO, of course not. I'm going to analyze my technical scenario in advance and see if all of the parameters are going to be met for a valid trade based on my system. Then just sit back and let it happen. No anxiety, no spur of the moment trades, no fear, just total relaxation and a nice cup of tea.

Safe trading and a good weekend ahead. Spring is in the air and I'm loving it.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,833
  • Apr 6, 2018 5:33am Apr 6, 2018 5:33am
Quoting Expo33
{quote} You seem a bit surprised? Yes, that's a live account. FF only shows live account trades under the trade tab. Hard to know when he/she initiated the trade but they may already be 100+ pips in the green and thinking I'm either going to break even or have a huge score. Expectations are high for good US numbers. An unexpected miss with some decent CAD numbers and UCAD could fall off a cliff. A 60 pip spike down and they make nearly 1/4 million clams. Good luck to them. By the way, right now is exactly why I don't fret about fundamentals. I am...
Yup, that 400 lots short new something.

All the positive expectations for US good numbers = miss, and CAD comes out decent. Bye Bye UCAD time for your swan dive down to 1.2677.
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #12,834
  • Apr 6, 2018 5:36am Apr 6, 2018 5:36am
The Canadian dollar lost some points to the US dollar. US session could bring it back under 1.27.
  • #12,835
  • Apr 6, 2018 5:39am Apr 6, 2018 5:39am
Quoting Expo33
Holy macaroni, somebody is hitting the short button with some extra pazizzle. I'm long UCAD from 1.2760 and suddenly feeling a bit more confident. {image}
Brave man!! Usd/cad going down Very likely
  • #12,836
  • Edited 7:24am Apr 6, 2018 6:23am | Edited 7:24am
Quoting Sean76710
{quote} Brave man!! Usd/cad going down Very likely
USDCAD Daily is in 4th wave. When it's completed, it will rise up to form final wave 5.

Lmax live account
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  • #12,837
  • Apr 6, 2018 6:35am Apr 6, 2018 6:35am
Quoting grandaevus
{quote} USDCAD Daily is in 4th wave. When it's completed, it will rise up. {image}

I agree as traders are not taking cad data to heart until nafta is done. GBp/cad and eur/cad have retraced.

Then again dollar is taking a beating so general cad strength may overpower it
  • #12,838
  • Apr 6, 2018 6:39am Apr 6, 2018 6:39am
I'll be a happy man when it hits below 1.2733. Predicting major trend should remain bullish till the 18th.
  • #12,839
  • Edited 6:57am Apr 6, 2018 6:41am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting grandaevus
{quote} USDCAD Daily is in 4th wave. When it's completed, it will rise up. {image}
As long as price stays above wave 1 = 1.26872, I'm bullish on USDCAD.
  • #12,840
  • Apr 6, 2018 6:59am Apr 6, 2018 6:59am
Quoting grandaevus
{quote} As long as price stays above wave 1 = 1.26872, I'm bullish on USDCAD.
I have sell 1.2756 tp 1.2710...
and I am also adding buys from 1.2750 all the way to 1.2700. (About 4 buy entry)
Trade what you see, take what the market gives you.
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