Jordi's system

Hi Mr Bump, thank you for your kind words. I prefer to answer you via private message. Darwinex is just my broker, but I don't want to be classified as a "commercial".

I'm not going to have much time this weekend, so I post now my forecast for the following days.

On March 18, my vision for this pair was pretty bearish, but again, the support zone has held, again. In fact, is holding very well, three times has been tested, so with yesterday's buy signal, the most probable is a test of the upper resistance, but first, this pair needs to broke the range, shown by a white box, on my weekly chart.

If this pair finally tests the upper zone, then most probably it will be a breakout, taking all the stops, with a pullback to the purple trendline ( weekly chart).

With less of 3 hours, the US market will close, and right now, the daily candle is a big engulfing bar, so this confirms yesterday's buy signal. Only longs are permitted.

well, finally is not a "big engulfing bar", but at least is a bullish close

NZD USD started the week very strong but reversed near of the bearish trendline. This is not the behavior I was expecting after a triple bottom, so although there is not a pure sell signal yet, I'm going to sell this pair until the bearish trendline is broken.

No selling pressure, neither. NZD USD is inside a triangle, and now is on the lower side, so I buy this pair for now. When the market is going nowhere, as NZDUSD do this week, PLDot is useless, is better to trade for a support or a resistance.

This month the NZD USD has been sideways. Anyway, my trading account is higher. +198 pips and +2.04%.
There isn't much to add since my last post. I'm waiting for a breakout.

Right now, the daily candle is a BOVB (Bullish Outside Vertical Bar), engulfing the two previous days, let's see how it closes, but I think this pair is very strong today, so most probably it will close as a BOVB. If all goes as expected, tomorrow the bearish trendline will be tested, and maybe, broken.

Until today I only posted my forecast on NZDUSD based on Plot and some technical analysis. Now I want to go a bit further. I'm going to experiment with some techniques (Gann, cycles, and others), in order to anticipate possible CIT days (Change in trend).

Here my first CIT days for NZDUSD:

- April 20.
- May 3.

On February 25, I did upload weekly chart with two possible paths. Here is an update of that chart, because the "A" path it looks now more likely.

On Monthly: There are two inside bars (February & March). Right now, the price is broken March's highs.

On Weekly: There is some kind of flag, and this week the price is breaking the flag. Also, the price is breaking last month's highs. So more upside pressure is expected but on the other hand, the price is entering in the resistance zone (blue rectangle). This is the place where the price has reversed every time, since last September.

On Daily: The triangle has been broken, and now there is higher highs and higher lows, that's a bullish structure.

My bias is still bullish, with some precaution, because of the resistance zone, but I think we are headed to test last year's maximums (0.7557), and after that, a test of the blue and red trendlines (weekly chart).

After checking my charts, I've identified another CIT day on April 13. All CIT are +-1 day, so be careful if there is a price reversal between tomorrow and next Monday, because we are in resistance zone.

I want to clarify how I use this dates. I only use as an indication of a possible swing high or low, if there isn't a confirmation with a buy or sell signal then I dismiss it.

It looks like the forecasted CIT by April 13, is going to be 1 day early. I've closed all my long trades. Although I'm bullish, we are on resistance zone, so is better to trade with some precaution.

Well, well, the CIT finally wasn't a day early, it's today, as I forecasted. By the way, the market has created another CIT, that is April 28.

Hi, I think it's time for a quick update. April 13 CIT has worked nicely.

The April 13 maximum was 0.7395, and today's minimum is, by the moment, 0.7303. That's 92 pips, but with my system, I extracted 120 pips (closed trades), that's because I add to my winning trades, not to my losses.

What to expect? I expect a continuation of the bearish movement initiated on April 13. At least until one of the zones marked with orange rectangles.

Remember that on Friday 20, there is another CIT, so market can reverse between Thursday and Monday, but as always, we need a price confirmation, because of we never know, when a little trend will be the beginning of another bigger one.

PS. On April I posted another CIT date, there was a typing error, I wrote April 28, but the correct date is April 30. So next CITs are:

-April 20
-April 30
-May 3

It's time for a quick update. On April 13, I forecasted a possible bearish path, and as you can see, The NZDUSD is following the forecasted path very well, and right now is testing the target zone just in time because today is a CIT day. Anyway, let's see if there is some price reversal between today and Monday. Without a price reversal, the trend is bearish, so I'm opening only short positions until CIT is validated by a price confirmation.

Despite all this, there are some things that make me think that this time the CIT can fail. Let's see how the Kiwi closes today, and I will expand information this weekend.

This is my weekend review and trading plan for the next week.

Let's see the NZDUSD and other markets. Yes, today I talk about other markets because I think we are near an inflection point.

Since the beginning of the year, the NZDUSD has been in a range, sideways, also the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD. Some day or another will be a breakout on this pairs, and I think this day is closer than many think, and the resulting trend will be strong.

Besides of this, if you look the USD index, there is a triangle, and I think is going to be a bullish breakout. If so, most probably, is going to be a bearish breakout on the four pairs mentioned above.

What could trigger such move? In my opinion these two:

1- Another fall in the stock market.
2- Fed monetary policy. Another Rate hike on May 2.

Regarding point 1, from my point of view, the US stock market is now looking ugly, and ready for another bearish leg. If so, most probably, the USD will be bought, breaking his triangle and triggering the breakout on NZDUSD, EURUSD; GBPUSD and AUDUSD.

The exposed above is just a possibility I have, but If it's confirmed, then the resulting trend will be, most probably strong, and a lot of money can be made if it's traded correctly. In strong trends, the CIT's dates are almost useless.

Now, the NZDUSD specifically:

Monthly chart: After breaking last month's highs, the price has reversed and right now, the monthly open, and the close (Friday's close) are below of he Pldot.With 6 trading days left to end the month, I would not be surprised with a monthly close below last month's lows, in which case, the monthly bar will be a Bearish Engulfing Outside Bar (BEOB).

Weekly chart: Here there isn't much to say, a Bearish Engulfing Bar at resistance zone (BEEB). Is the "B" path the right one? with yesterday's close, it looks it is.

Daily chart: Right now, the NZDUSD is testing the bearish trendline, as I forecasted some days ago. But for the reasons exposed above (USD, the stock market, interest rates), now I think there is a possible bearish breakout of this range. Anyway, this support can holds again, so the "A" path is still possible.

In a nutshell: The system is bearish and I'm going to sell this market until the market confirms a buy signal.

Congrats on your continued success, Jordi. You seem to have a good combination of technical skills with good discipline and money management. Keep it up.

Thank you very much MrBumFx

I think is good to work always with other possibilities. Look the orange channel. Maybe we are going nowhere until the Eu rate decision on Thursday. Yes, I know, I'm talking about EU decision rate and this is NZD, but the whole market is linked.

I've decided to change somethings:

1- I've changed the visibility of my trading explorer. Now it's only for my personal use.

2- From today, my forecasts and analysis on NZDUSD will be posted in the following thread https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=249161

3- This thread will be only a journal of my progress.

April results: + 890 pips, and an increase of 28.39%.

This month is not starting very well, it looks like the April 30 CIT is going to be wrong.