The TAW system

When it comes to EURUSD, the pair is starting to look quite oversold. On the 1H the pair is rapidly nearing an RSI score of 20 a score so low it hasn't been seen once this year. The pair is at 1.23 and with the end of the US trading session on us, I'm going to be looking for an end of day bounce upward (something that often happens going into the Aussie session).

In fact the pair is oversold enough that I may even break with my system and place a really short term long to trim some profits off the coming pull back upward.

Because so many people talk about arbitrage and the video got buried on the last page I'm going to repost it to make sure people see it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gs3uFmOMSM

I was truly expecting a fairly strong bounce upward today in EURUSD and GBPUSD. However the combination of the cancellation of Brexit talks, the news of lower than expected consumer confidence in the EU, the upward move in GDP and increase in home sales in the US, and so on is leading to USD strength.

In fact the way things have been going risk appetite really sort of took a nose dive and that pushes people back to USD as well which is why there's been no real bounce on the close of the NY session.

So I'm going to revise what I said. Instead I'm looking for a little continuation of the sideways consolidation in these two pairs followed by another downward push probably during the Asian session coming up.

GBPUSD has done what I had said it would. After some brief sideways consolidation it restarted the push back downward.

EURUSD will likely follow suit before much longer.

Just be advised that EURUSD isn't too far from support which I have at 1.22495 (but remember, both support and resistance should be looked at with a crayon, not a thin line so that's just part of the support area. It could push upward a little more but look for a resumption of the downward move before long.

GBPUSD however doesn't really have an easily defined near support point to looking at (well, it does but it's at it). The next support for the downward push is on the H1 at 1.39895 but that's a fairly good bit off.

I think it more likely that GBPUSD will do a sort of "soft bounce" right here where it is (1.40665) after this recent downward push before kicking off downward again.

EURUSD did exactly as I had said they would in my previous post and both are back on downward pushes again.

The UK published some good news today so be careful with new shorts there if you aren't already in GBPUSD.

Forgot to mention, with US economic sentiment going up we should see broad strength in USD. This is helping the push down in pairs like NZDUSD and GBPUSD.

However Germany reported better than expected employment which will help to bolster EURUSD upward a little.

AUDUSD did bounce off the support zone as I showed in the Trend Identification video (bottom line of the upward facing channel). However it's only holding a little above the support line. I won't be surprised to see AUDUSD fall back and retest the support again at some point today.

You've probably noticed that I make extensive use of trendlines with the TAW system. Well, take a look at this GBPUSD 1D chart.


You can see that the current push downward is resting at a support point. This is likely why the move has stalled. Keep an eye out for a bounce back off (which gives new short entry point) or for the pair to breakthrough which may cause an accelerated move down.

The H1 time frame for EURUSD is starting to show something pretty interesting. Here, take a look.


It's really looking like the pair has been consolidating sideways over the last several hours for another push downward. If I'm correct then look for another pretty strong move at some point during the Asian session.

I won't be at all surprised to see the bottom support line I showed on the range following system thread to be at least temporarily broken. It's possible that what we're looking at is the long term down trend about to resume.

Now, to be fair, this is based on only a few hours of sideways movement, so I may be jumping the gun I bring it up so you can keep an eye on it.

Look for EURUSD and GBPUSD to resume their downward pushes here fairly soon. Somewhere as soon as the next candle to maybe 3 hours from now and both are likely to start dropping (EURUSD in particular).

Totally forgot that Friday is a european bank holiday. Not sure we're going to see much happening given that it's also a day that a lot of US traders also take off.

My predictions of another push downward may not end up playing out given this. Keep an eye on the markets though, but be a little more cautious. Times of lower volumes can see a lot of odd ball market behavior.

The fundamentals for AUDUSD have shifted a bit. Trump just announced tarrifs on Chinese goods. What's bad for China's economy is in many ways bad for Australia's as well. HOWEVER, China has said it still expects 6.9% GDP growth which means its likely to buy the same amount of metals and grains from Australia that had already been forecast.

My suspicion however is that this will cause some kind of sentiment shift regarding australia ... but we won't see that probably until Monday given that today was a bank holiday in europe and a lot of the bigger players in the US take the day off as well.

AUDUSD is going to be interesting to watch. I also have some other technicals to look out for in my range trading system thread you may want to check out.

This looks very much like the trading system promoted by DANNY WALL in COLORADO. A Google search of that history is very enlightening.

Okay, today is not really a good day for making predictions especially since the US session is now more than half over and the end of the trading week about to kick off.

However, a look at EURUSD shows that RSI is well outside the oversold range, MACD is basically at 0, eurozone news is lukewarm while US news is in good shape.

Plus we're now looking at a potential trade war with China kicking off, the whole thing with Russia, a housing cooldown in Canada ... I could go on.

I'm thinking that risk aversion next week is likely to tick up and we'll see strength in USD as a result pushing EURUSD and GBPUSD down. I think it more than a little likely that AUDUSD is also on a downward push next week because of the thing with China.

Unless I'm totally mistaken we are probably looking at all three pushing downward pretty hard. EURUSD will likely breakout of the sideways channel that it's been in for the last little while and resume the downtrend.

All, important: There is a news story on FF today that global US reserves hit a 4 year low (https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=751549). This on the heels of a german minister saying he sees hefty rate increases (even if I think he's full of it).

Between those two things hitting this weekend I'm going to have to change my forecast for USD from strengthening to weakening because this recent news will be top of mind come Monday.

EURUSD at minimum is likely to run upward and more than a little likely will even break through the long term down trend line (though I suspect we'll return back to it).

But the truth is that I'm expecting broad USD weakness (so if USD is listed second, pair moves up, if it's listed first pair moves down).

Now that may not be universally true so keep an eye on the specific pair you trade if you're looking at more than just EURUSD or GBPUSD (which is also likely to push upward).

I created an entire thread for trading ranges and channels as a way of giving all of you another tool for trading the markets.

In this video I explain the "inside bar" and the indicator that I use for making it easy to spot.

https://youtu.be/IrtpM52IsxM

I forgot to mention that the "inside bar" thing should be ignored when it happens late on a Friday ... especially when it's late on the Friday of a holiday weekend. The "setup" is really not valid in those instances.

your long term bias is the most important thing ...
like you woohiye , im still short on gbp and eur , im grid trading it sell only at 100 pips size.
looking forward to see your fundamental analysis....

That´s intresting- anyway-- I liked this kind of analyses.-- membership revoked- not sure what happened but must have been a fraud in any case-

PS:Edit-- googled it-- that name won the non broker Scam alert 2010- explains it all.

also interesting that this is your first post ever and your name happens to be danny

so, I'm confused, did you dob yourself in?

maybe he will explain himself on YT