One stop shop for fundamental analysis links
Last updated: March 4, 2020.
Imo the best (and possibly the only) way to succeed using fundamental analysis in spot fx is:
1. You must somehow obtain quality (economic or geopolitical) information, which you correctly understand will be the overriding driver in moving price. Or in other words, what is currently causing the overall sentiment of a certain pair to be bullish or bearish.
2. You must obtain and use the information early enough, before it gets 'priced in', to what the market perceives as being 'fair value'. Usually the market tends to anticipate the impact of news, and reach this point ahead of the announcement, hence the best opportunities come from unexpected news outcomes, i.e. that are unscheduled or otherwise take the market by surprise. (Tweets by President Trump are a great example).
3. You need to correctly assess where 'fair value' should be, and hence determine whether a pair is currently 'overpriced' or 'underpriced'. Then trade it back to the 'fair value' level.
____________________
There are plenty of links to material on fundamental analysis below. There's a vast wealth of commentary in some of these links; I suggest that you experiment and find a few resources that resonate with you, and stay with them. Unless otherwise noted, all of this info is available for FREE.
Good posts by numbnuts, MCRotter, dancingphil; good explanations throughout these threads: jakeparkin ; numbnuts ; unknown4x ; skfx ; Razorjack ; Samson85 ; osjoe2 (there are also some good posts by neilgroom/neilsdigest in osjoe2's thread).
All FF posts by skfx and numbnuts are a must read IMHO. The analysis/prognosis in these threads is of course historical, but they still provide insight into the thought processes that these folk use.
Jarratt Davis gives some good pointers (especially in his earlier posts) at forex peace army. Also watch YouTube videos by fund managers Jarratt Davis (e.g. here** and here) and Chris Mathis, which will give you some insight into their approach to analysis.
[** this video is a very good intro to the basics]
More links to Jarratt Davis' explanation of FA-based techniques posted by Samson85 here.
Babypips: basic FA explanation ; sentiment/COT explained ; news roundup. The news roundup link is excellent! Among other things, it gives links to a weekly forecast for each major currency (USD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, NZD), and then a weekly review of the same:
-- The forecasts provide links to discussion on upcoming announcements and data releases, and histograms showing trend strength, overbought/oversold, and volatility of each relevant pair.
-- The reviews includes chart overlays for all 7 pairs for the currency, with an additional overlay of red news; a histogram showing the % rise/fall for each pair for the week; and fundamental analysis for both overall and of individual news items.
Or you can perform your own (albeit mainly TA) analysis of strength/weakness using their tool here.
FXstreet: FA learning center links ; macroeconomics ; up-to-date analysis (ignore the advertisements).
Forex Factory: news updates ; calendar (expand individual news items to get an explanation of the data).
I also keep up to date with summaries from BKforex (Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien) who send free summary e-mails: in addition to the BK Insights link provided by numbnuts in post #7, you can also download their weekly market reports. If you want a quick review summarizing monetary policy, data, geopolitics and general outlook for each of the 8 majors, see Kathy's fundamental heatmap.
I also get weekly updates from Sam Eder and Justin Paolini at fxrenew (no need to pay for anything, just sign up for their free material).
CNN fear & greed index here. Risk on/off timeseries plot here (credit: thanks to ppxdf for the link).
Some other good base sources of news: forexlive ; central_bank_news ; bloomberg_markets ; xm; mtrading (a good summary); investing.com (forex news and analysis); fxstreet news and analysis.
Live/delayed news feeds: efxnews ; see links to possible alternatives to RANsquawk in posts #14 onward in this thread.
YouTube video by Ray Dalio on how the economic machine works (not specific to forex).
Comprehensive list of economic indicators (thanks to Shabs19 for pointing me to this).
Pundits' probabilities on future USD interest rate changes; AUD rate changes.
Also found this (0anda), this (DailyFX), this and this using Google (hundreds more links there also).
FXSSI and myfxbook provide retail data for savvy traders to trade against (on the assumption that the vast majority of retailers lose).
fxweek currency forecast tool gives dealer forecasts on future major pair quotes.
I will add to this list as I find more sources.
@anybody else: please feel welcome to contribute also. Thanks in advance.
Last updated: March 4, 2020.
Imo the best (and possibly the only) way to succeed using fundamental analysis in spot fx is:
1. You must somehow obtain quality (economic or geopolitical) information, which you correctly understand will be the overriding driver in moving price. Or in other words, what is currently causing the overall sentiment of a certain pair to be bullish or bearish.
2. You must obtain and use the information early enough, before it gets 'priced in', to what the market perceives as being 'fair value'. Usually the market tends to anticipate the impact of news, and reach this point ahead of the announcement, hence the best opportunities come from unexpected news outcomes, i.e. that are unscheduled or otherwise take the market by surprise. (Tweets by President Trump are a great example).
3. You need to correctly assess where 'fair value' should be, and hence determine whether a pair is currently 'overpriced' or 'underpriced'. Then trade it back to the 'fair value' level.
____________________
There are plenty of links to material on fundamental analysis below. There's a vast wealth of commentary in some of these links; I suggest that you experiment and find a few resources that resonate with you, and stay with them. Unless otherwise noted, all of this info is available for FREE.
Good posts by numbnuts, MCRotter, dancingphil; good explanations throughout these threads: jakeparkin ; numbnuts ; unknown4x ; skfx ; Razorjack ; Samson85 ; osjoe2 (there are also some good posts by neilgroom/neilsdigest in osjoe2's thread).
All FF posts by skfx and numbnuts are a must read IMHO. The analysis/prognosis in these threads is of course historical, but they still provide insight into the thought processes that these folk use.
Jarratt Davis gives some good pointers (especially in his earlier posts) at forex peace army. Also watch YouTube videos by fund managers Jarratt Davis (e.g. here** and here) and Chris Mathis, which will give you some insight into their approach to analysis.
[** this video is a very good intro to the basics]
More links to Jarratt Davis' explanation of FA-based techniques posted by Samson85 here.
Babypips: basic FA explanation ; sentiment/COT explained ; news roundup. The news roundup link is excellent! Among other things, it gives links to a weekly forecast for each major currency (USD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, NZD), and then a weekly review of the same:
-- The forecasts provide links to discussion on upcoming announcements and data releases, and histograms showing trend strength, overbought/oversold, and volatility of each relevant pair.
-- The reviews includes chart overlays for all 7 pairs for the currency, with an additional overlay of red news; a histogram showing the % rise/fall for each pair for the week; and fundamental analysis for both overall and of individual news items.
Or you can perform your own (albeit mainly TA) analysis of strength/weakness using their tool here.
FXstreet: FA learning center links ; macroeconomics ; up-to-date analysis (ignore the advertisements).
Forex Factory: news updates ; calendar (expand individual news items to get an explanation of the data).
I also keep up to date with summaries from BKforex (Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien) who send free summary e-mails: in addition to the BK Insights link provided by numbnuts in post #7, you can also download their weekly market reports. If you want a quick review summarizing monetary policy, data, geopolitics and general outlook for each of the 8 majors, see Kathy's fundamental heatmap.
I also get weekly updates from Sam Eder and Justin Paolini at fxrenew (no need to pay for anything, just sign up for their free material).
CNN fear & greed index here. Risk on/off timeseries plot here (credit: thanks to ppxdf for the link).
Some other good base sources of news: forexlive ; central_bank_news ; bloomberg_markets ; xm; mtrading (a good summary); investing.com (forex news and analysis); fxstreet news and analysis.
Live/delayed news feeds: efxnews ; see links to possible alternatives to RANsquawk in posts #14 onward in this thread.
YouTube video by Ray Dalio on how the economic machine works (not specific to forex).
Comprehensive list of economic indicators (thanks to Shabs19 for pointing me to this).
Pundits' probabilities on future USD interest rate changes; AUD rate changes.
Also found this (0anda), this (DailyFX), this and this using Google (hundreds more links there also).
FXSSI and myfxbook provide retail data for savvy traders to trade against (on the assumption that the vast majority of retailers lose).
fxweek currency forecast tool gives dealer forecasts on future major pair quotes.
I will add to this list as I find more sources.
@anybody else: please feel welcome to contribute also. Thanks in advance.
