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USD/CAD

  • #12,781
  • Mar 22, 2018 3:47pm Mar 22, 2018 3:47pm
Quoting TambienSolo
Anybody long on USD/CAD?? Its currently at support @ around 1.28907 , shows signs to bounced of reversal
I spotted it, but didn't pull the trigger. Tried to get in too early last night and took a stop. Has the potential to break north.
  • #12,782
  • Mar 22, 2018 4:01pm Mar 22, 2018 4:01pm
Quoting KeenPips
This is a pair I'm currently watching. It's now heading towards an area I would like to look for a southward turnaround (bound by magenta coloured lines in the attached H4 chart). I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {image}
I did catch this, I'm still patiently waiting for further information before I take trade. CPI is due to be announced early tomorrow (GMT) so be weary of the trade.
  • #12,783
  • Mar 22, 2018 5:45pm Mar 22, 2018 5:45pm
Quoting KeenPips
This is a pair I'm currently watching. It's now heading towards an area I would like to look for a southward turnaround (bound by magenta coloured lines in the attached H4 chart). I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {image}
I would like it to break 1.28000 level before I would consider shorts. GL green pips
Price is King
  • #12,784
  • Mar 22, 2018 5:46pm Mar 22, 2018 5:46pm
Quoting TambienSolo
Anybody long on USD/CAD?? Its currently at support @ around 1.28907 , shows signs to bounced of reversal
Price is a weekly demand zone im watching. If price break 1.28000 I will start looknig at shorts....GL green pips
Price is King
  • #12,785
  • Mar 23, 2018 4:13am Mar 23, 2018 4:13am
The protectionism fears in Canada have eased as the US has signalled more flexibility in some of the most contentious issues of the NAFTA negotiations, which benefitted CAD notable the day before yesterday. This has increased the likelihood of an amicable agreement and thus also for further Bank of Canada rate hikes. The BoC had seemed cautious recently mainly against the background of the deadlock in the NAFTA negotiations resulting in uncertainty for the Canadian economic outlook. As inflation remains close to the 2% inflation target speculation as to when the BoC will take the next rate step will depend mainly on how resilient the real economy remains in the still tense risk environment. As a result the focus is likely to be more on January retail sales than on the inflation figures for February today. Despite positive signals from the NAFTA negotiations participants forex markets only see limited upside scope for CAD as the rate hikes expected by us are already largely priced in.
  • #12,786
  • Mar 23, 2018 4:16am Mar 23, 2018 4:16am
Here is my view:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdCad180323d1.PNG Size: 31 KB


Break and re-test of the October - December highs. Divergent daily pin bar off of support area. News at 12:30 GMT, 08:30 ET. Get out of bed USA!

Come on! I'm giving this stuff away!
Gone to a better place
  • #12,787
  • Mar 23, 2018 8:19am Mar 23, 2018 8:19am
That's the way to turn it around!

There was a scary looking hammer that made the chart look bullish. That was engulfed today and should see some steady retrace of the huge move since the trade wars erupted in beginning of February (1.22xx area).

Inflation is going to be a problem if BoC keeps rates low. Expect some noise from BoC especially since trade wars will increase inflation further in Canada.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 86 KB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #12,788
  • Mar 23, 2018 8:45am Mar 23, 2018 8:45am
There are a lot of stops between here and 1.2800. Chart pattern has nice H&S and looks like easy 200 pip drop but looks like hard nut to crack to get below 1.2800.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4.png Size: 82 KB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #12,789
  • Mar 23, 2018 11:16am Mar 23, 2018 11:16am
Quoting smikester
Here is my view: {image} Break and re-test of the October - December highs. Divergent daily pin bar off of support area. News at 12:30 GMT, 08:30 ET. Get out of bed USA! Come on! I'm giving this stuff away!
Great analyses. We eyed same level. Am already in it and see how it goes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadu.png Size: 43 KB
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -62.9%
  • #12,790
  • Mar 23, 2018 11:39am Mar 23, 2018 11:39am
Quoting 9jatrader
{quote} Great analyses. We eyed same level. Am already in it and see how it goes {image}
Thank you. I'm surprised it didn't take off, but I am scaling in at these levels. With luck this support will hold and we'll continue the up trend.
Gone to a better place
  • #12,791
  • Mar 23, 2018 11:46am Mar 23, 2018 11:46am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Thank you. I'm surprised it didn't take off, but I am scaling in at these levels. With luck this support will hold and we'll continue the up trend.
I hope so too since it was formed on already existing uptrend
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -62.9%
  • #12,792
  • Mar 23, 2018 11:51am Mar 23, 2018 11:51am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Thank you. I'm surprised it didn't take off, but I am scaling in at these levels. With luck this support will hold and we'll continue the up trend.
The reason why it had not taken off was the interruption by the SMA, even though it closed above the middle band from the chart. The bullish bias still remains as the middle band and the SMA had not crossed each other.
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -62.9%
  • #12,793
  • Mar 23, 2018 2:08pm Mar 23, 2018 2:08pm
Dips are a buy
Don't Worry Be Happy
  • #12,794
  • Mar 24, 2018 10:29am Mar 24, 2018 10:29am
Short entry seems like a good deal now.
  • #12,795
  • Mar 25, 2018 5:34am Mar 25, 2018 5:34am
Scotiabank's technical view on the Canadian dollar

FX market strategists at Scotiabank have a neutral/bearish view on the USDCAD pair, noting decent resistance around 1.2970/90. "During the last 24 hours, the US dollar consolidated losses for the week around 1.29, and despite a strong rebound from the low on Thursday, we believe that the short-term risks are skewed in the direction of the dollar decline. Intraday models suggest that the dollar will consolidate, forming a bearish flag model, and we expect the dollar's weakness to resume at a break below 1.2905 this morning. We see support in the mid-1.28s, with a key one around last week's minimum of 1.2804, which looks very achievable in the case of a breakthrough below 1.29. We see resistance at 1.2970/90, " the experts said.
  • #12,796
  • Mar 26, 2018 1:22am Mar 26, 2018 1:22am
The pair seems to stay neutral after initially broke above 1.31 level.
  • #12,797
  • Mar 27, 2018 3:08am Mar 27, 2018 3:08am
Fed forecasts suggest three increases in the federal funds rate this year, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that the Bank of Canada will not remain in debt.

Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that the Bank of Canada will follow in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve this year, but if the latter, based on its own forecast, raises the rate one more time, then from the Canadian central bank, we can expect three more increases - in April, July and October. BoAML emphasizes that the exact time of the increases is not exactly certain (perhaps the Bank of Canada will elect for this meeting in May, October and December) and will partly depend on the dynamics of the Canadian dollar, but the central bank will definitely have to act. BoAML note that in favor of tightening the policy says higher inflation, tougher labor market conditions and a good economic growth, which will still feel the consequences of fiscal stimulation in the US.

Bank of America, Merrill Lynch expects that by the end of 2018 the Bank of Canada rate will reach 2.00%, and the US dollar to Canadian currency will reach 1.25, and in 2019 - 1.23.
  • #12,798
  • Mar 27, 2018 11:21am Mar 27, 2018 11:21am
Does anyone have any input on this potential 5-3-5 zig zag wave pattern? Because that would put alot of reinforcement on my theory for a good shorting opportunity. Ive i just want to know becuase ive been short since 1.3070
  • #12,799
  • Mar 27, 2018 11:23am Mar 27, 2018 11:23am
If we broke 1.3070 again I'd be WAY WAYY long haha
  • #12,800
  • Mar 27, 2018 6:32pm Mar 27, 2018 6:32pm
Scotiabank: sell USDCAD on growth

"Last week, the pair broke through the bottom of the weekly uplink, which should at least weaken bullish pressure," Scotiabank currency strategists write. - "So far, the demand for US currency does not allow the USDCAD to fall below C$ 1.28, and in the near future the pair can adjust slightly higher - for example, in the area of C$ 1.2950. However, the inability of the USDCAD to gain a foothold above the key resistance C$ 1.31 (C$ 1.3133 - correction of 61.8% from the decline of C$ 1.38-C$ 1.20), most likely indicates that the uptrend is broken. We recommend selling the pair on growth attempts, expecting an early drop below C$ 1.28 "
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