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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #74,661
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:10am Mar 19, 2018 7:10am
Quoting nealpek
Until the market tells me otherwise, I have to assume the bias is still down. I'll be looking for a cleaning of the 106.40 area and in a perfect world the 106.75 area. Ideal setup would be around the 107 handle! One can only dream!!! Then I will reload for a further move south. Time will tell!!! {image}
ATM it looks plausible.
  • #74,662
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:25am Mar 19, 2018 7:25am
Quoting ItsAtrap
IMO it's not yet time to go long USD/JPY. The bottom of the bullish weekly candle of Nov 6, 2016, is a big target that is likely to be taken out (circled) Similar situation with GBP/USD but in that case the target is on the long side Imagine how many longs have their SL at that point. edit: weekly chart {image}

The long-term image I described in the above post last month is still in play, imo.

However, since the middle of last month when I last posted here, the price has just been ranging, so it has not yet created enough space for me to move stops below the 110s previous peak. Therefore, only my first shorts which I took at 113s are safe. The rest of my short positions are still exposed to losses.

I post a 4-hour chart of the past few days showing the peak I am talking about. As you can see, I added to my shorts at just below 108, as I commented on Feb that that was likely the top of any retracement. However, as I note, 108 is NOT a proper SL level for shorts. Not yet
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY short 19Mar18 4h chart.jpg Size: 397 KB
  • #74,663
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:43am Mar 19, 2018 7:43am
Quoting nealpek
Price could very well sweep higher(large red circle) to clean out the entire range. What looks more plausible, in the short term anyways, is for price to sweep immediate shorts above, then turn around and sweep all the orders sitting below(small red circles) Nothing is written in stone, but before a larger move up, they most probably would sweep and gather all the orders sitting below. {image}
So, USDJPY have 1 consolidation / accumulation.
Together we can be strongest
Vantage Return This Month: na
  • #74,664
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:47am Mar 19, 2018 7:47am
USD/JPY has recovered from the lows and today is trading slightly above 106.00. However the pair ramains range bounded until Wednesday when high impact is expected on Fed’s rate hike.
  • #74,665
  • Mar 19, 2018 8:32am Mar 19, 2018 8:32am
Looking for a big quick decisive squirt north. The faster it rises the more of a false move it usually is....maybe, maybe not. That's trading....
But hey, it's only monday,lol!!!
  • #74,666
  • Mar 19, 2018 8:40am Mar 19, 2018 8:40am
Quoting nealpek
Looking for a big quick decisive squirt north. The faster it rises the more of a false move it usually is....maybe, maybe not. That's trading.... But hey, it's only monday,lol!!!
See if this demand at 106.08 holds. If not, then the next area there should be buyers would be 106 and below that probably at 105.91. I almost bet price bounces between the supply at 106.40 - 106.28 and down to 106 today. Chopping around and waiting until FOMC.
  • #74,667
  • Mar 19, 2018 9:59am Mar 19, 2018 9:59am
I passed on touch trading the gray supply zone due to the strong move up this morning. Bad decision on my part, the odds were in my favor to hit at least one and one and now it has hit nearly 2:1.

I then passed on the 30M reversal sign (two bar pin bar, railroad tracks, etc.) which would be over 1:1 as well.

Double mistake this morning of trying to get it right and not just playing the odds to my favor. This is my toughest habit to break, this isn't IT work that has to be 100% correct, this is putting the odds in your favor over and over.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM30.png Size: 49 KB
  • #74,668
  • Mar 19, 2018 10:40am Mar 19, 2018 10:40am
Quoting nealpek
The most difficult challenge every trader faces isn't support and resistance. It's the triad of competing forces between your eyes, mind and gut. Oh those little voices are strong.....
It really is the next hurdle for me. I took years to learn how to read charts. Probably way longer than needed, because I always over do everything. I finally realized I don't need to sit back and just learn more, I need to start doing.

The next hurdle is stop trying to be a perfectionist and go with what my eyes see. Granted I passed on the UJ short due to the strong move up, so I had a reason to pass, but I don't think that reason was strong enough in hindsight. The move while long, as not EXTREMELY strong by any means and the overall trend is down. I talked myself out of a trade that was at least 1:1 with over a 50% possibility of making money. That is how you make money trading, not by getting them all right, but by putting the odds in your favor every single time.
  • #74,669
  • Mar 19, 2018 10:41am Mar 19, 2018 10:41am
Quoting nealpek
The most difficult challenge every trader faces isn't support and resistance. It's the triad of competing forces between your eyes, mind and gut. Oh those little voices are strong..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNrbrhQknLQ
Strong indeed. It takes a hell of a lot of work to get them bad boys to shut the fuck up.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #74,670
  • Mar 19, 2018 10:50am Mar 19, 2018 10:50am
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} It really is the next hurdle for me. I took years to learn how to read charts. Probably way longer than needed, because I always over do everything. I finally realized I don't need to sit back and just learn more, I need to start doing. The next hurdle is stop trying to be a perfectionist and go with what my eyes see. Granted I passed on the UJ short due to the strong move up, so I had a reason to pass, but I don't think that reason was strong enough in hindsight. The move while long, as not EXTREMELY strong by any means and the overall...
Fourth pivots.
  • #74,671
  • Mar 19, 2018 10:55am Mar 19, 2018 10:55am
It was another Pinbar on H1 chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ Pin.png Size: 48 KB
  • #74,672
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:07am Mar 19, 2018 11:07am
Quoting Sossos
{quote} Fourth pivots.
What does this mean?
  • #74,673
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:18am Mar 19, 2018 11:18am
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} What does this mean?
More than third pivots.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #74,674
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:23am Mar 19, 2018 11:23am
Quoting unlv_tj
{quote} What does this mean?
Pivot, not pivot points, but pivots like Wyckoff, Elliott or Anderson would talk about. You know a "turn" in the market. Then you need a hand with all its fingers and a thumb to count to 5. If you investigate Andrews (median lines) you'll find he had a fellow professor by the name of Anderson that researched Elliott's theories and simplified them.
The challenge with anything you think you know, is realizing that you don't know what you don't know! The markets are always more than willing to show us just what we don't know yet.
  • #74,675
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:32am Mar 19, 2018 11:32am
Quoting arasheed
USD/JPY a test of 105.25 appears likely – UOB https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jp...b-201803191038
They're not in charge of market. Stay with your analyses and bias
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #74,676
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:40am Mar 19, 2018 11:40am
Ahh yes Pivots.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpymar19.JPG Size: 291 KB
  • #74,677
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:47am Mar 19, 2018 11:47am
Winston, those 3 minute charts are really busy. I still like the 20's. If you adjust your lines down to the next pivot the last high hit to the tick!
  • #74,678
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:48am Mar 19, 2018 11:48am
Quoting nealpek
Until the market tells me otherwise, I have to assume the bias is still down. I'll be looking for a cleaning of the 106.40 area and in a perfect world the 106.75 area. Ideal setup would be around the 107 handle! One can only dream!!! Then I will reload for a further move south. Time will tell!!! {image}
You're right mate; down, down we go
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #74,679
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:49am Mar 19, 2018 11:49am
Quoting Sossos
Winston, those 3 minute charts are really busy. I still like the 20's
LOL. I've even been doing 1 min charts. PA is the same no matter the time frame. Low time frames play out quick and offer satisfying validation of your strategy.
  • #74,680
  • Mar 19, 2018 11:52am Mar 19, 2018 11:52am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} LOL. I've even been doing 1 min charts. PA is the same no matter the time frame. Low time frames play out quick and offer satisfying validation of your strategy.
Now does the previous pivot at 105.75 hold or get beat like a rented mule.
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