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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #11,161
  • Mar 8, 2018 7:24am Mar 8, 2018 7:24am
Quoting Nivad
{quote} On another note, I've traded DIBS with no modifications before for about a year, getting up at midnight and trading for 8-9 hours for a year straight and not missing a single trade. The tough part is the psychological and physical aspects. The low win rate really plays on you psychologically when you go into a drawdown but for me what was even worse was the toll it takes on you physically. By Friday I was a zombie and all I could do was sleep for the weekend so I could get up and do it all again Monday. Good luck to any of you using the...
What an outstanding post! It's hard to find something so helpful. Thanks and congratulations.

If you say that you were able to be profitable but it costed a lot personally, that's wonderful. Everybody wants to be profitable, but nobody should expect to have it without hard work.

Would you mind to tell more about your experience?
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,162
  • Mar 8, 2018 8:05am Mar 8, 2018 8:05am
Quoting Nivad
{quote} Isn't a double inside bar a valid inside bar?
Of course it is.
Gone to a better place
  • #11,163
  • Mar 8, 2018 9:17am Mar 8, 2018 9:17am
Quoting Nivad
{quote} Isn't a double inside bar a valid inside bar? On another note, I've traded DIBS with no modifications before for about a year, getting up at midnight and trading for 8-9 hours for a year straight and not missing a single trade. The tough part is the psychological and physical aspects. The low win rate really plays on you psychologically when you go into a drawdown but for me what was even worse was the toll it takes on you physically. By Friday I was a zombie and all I could do was sleep for the weekend so I could get up and do it all again...
Tomorrow it will be two months since I started trading Dibs live. Im getting up everyday at 5.45 and trading all day until 15.00, then I'm going to work until 1.00 morning so Im feeling same as you, very often, when there is no signal, Im having nap for one-two hours,which is helping me going through the day and fresh coffee.
  • #11,164
  • Mar 8, 2018 2:13pm Mar 8, 2018 2:13pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} Of course it is.
We can't talk about inside bars in a thread about inside bars?

Nevertheless, the experience was eye opening.I learned a lot about myself and what I was and wasn't willing to do to be successful at this game.

The best piece of advice I could give to somebody is to backtest the method to the extent that you feel comfortable trading it before starting live.

You need to have the confidence to be able to power on when the inevitable drawdown hits. It's pretty hard on the psychology getting up at midnight and experiencing loss after loss and small wins for days and weeks. You need to have confidence the method works and will bring you out of the drawdown and on to new equity highs to be able to continue when the weight of those losses and drawdowns weigh on you mentally.

Everything you need to know is in this thread or the original one with Peter's contributions.
  • #11,165
  • Mar 8, 2018 5:15pm Mar 8, 2018 5:15pm
Hello from Morocco!
I'm a new trader and learning a lot of thing from good people here in FF.
I would like to know from someone who already use that strategy if that works good ?
I'm still working in Demo and sametime got good results but other time no and the reaison is that i enter at bad moment.

Thank you to all of you!
  • #11,166
  • Mar 8, 2018 5:48pm Mar 8, 2018 5:48pm
Quoting Nivad
{quote} We can't talk about inside bars in a thread about inside bars? Nevertheless, the experience was eye opening.I learned a lot about myself and what I was and wasn't willing to do to be successful at this game. The best piece of advice I could give to somebody is to backtest the method to the extent that you feel comfortable trading it before starting live. You need to have the confidence to be able to power on when the inevitable drawdown hits. It's pretty hard on the psychology getting up at midnight and experiencing loss after loss and small...

hi, how you exit for the profit positions?
  • #11,167
  • Edited 5:33am Mar 9, 2018 1:49am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting Nivad
{quote} We can't talk about inside bars in a thread about inside bars? Nevertheless, the experience was eye opening.I learned a lot about myself and what I was and wasn't willing to do to be successful at this game. The best piece of advice I could give to somebody is to backtest the method to the extent that you feel comfortable trading it before starting live. You need to have the confidence to be able to power on when the inevitable drawdown hits. It's pretty hard on the psychology getting up at midnight and experiencing loss after loss and small...
Well, Nivad, I did not say we could not talk about inside bars on this thread, did I? What I said was the thread was not about double inside bars. It's OK if you want to let it go, but when I see someone posting that they wish to make a living out of trading double inside bars, I see someone who has completely misunderstood the title of the thread and also someone who is off topic and posting something misleading for a new reader.

While writing, I should also point out that to quote Peter Crowns verbatim, this is "one of the methods he uses". It seems as though some traders here have built their lives around it and I am pretty sure it was not the intention of Peter Crowns when he originally posted.

For all you traders who are experiencing a low win rate and enduring unacceptable draw down, I say go here and read again what Mr Crowns had to say.

If you are enduring unacceptable draw down, it may be you are taking trades which are questionable. Certainly, you are over-leveraging. This is a trend following method. If you don't define the daily and/or weekly trend before you take a trade, you have no method of getting out of it and certainly should not be getting into it. If your trend is not already well defined, you are not trading the "hot hand".
Gone to a better place
  • #11,168
  • Mar 9, 2018 6:05am Mar 9, 2018 6:05am
Quoting smikester
{quote} This thread is not about double inside bars.
Somewhat harsh considering my question was asking what the setting was, the rest was context setting and not aimed at misleading or being off topic. I would be mindful of how you respond to posts in future.
  • #11,169
  • Mar 13, 2018 7:36pm Mar 13, 2018 7:36pm
GJ in good up move, anyone catch it? i analyze the past 2 weeks result, the top contribution from both GJ and Ucad.
  • #11,170
  • Mar 14, 2018 7:18am Mar 14, 2018 7:18am
Quoting happytrade38
GJ in good up move, anyone catch it? i analyze the past 2 weeks result, the top contribution from both GJ and Ucad.
Unfortunately not. I'm trying to concentrate on the major pairs at first, but I think the cross pairs a great option to be explored.

I did entered on GBPUSD yesterday and it was a great surprise. Trying to control the anxiety while it doesn't break the 1.4000 level...
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,171
  • Mar 16, 2018 1:31pm Mar 16, 2018 1:31pm
Hello guys, I have to confess, this week I have been struggling with either close my winning positions or keep them open. Yesterday I closed my two positions EU and UC with 210 pips profit. And today they are still going in the right direction. I really like to see my account in the profit.
I also noticed that approximately every week or two there is really nice move in at least one pair with DIBS signal to catch it and grab it minimum 200 pips.
I also moved my trading hour from 6:00 to 7:00 a.m. because I need sleep. 5 hours is still not enough, but never mind.
And I started reading this thread again from beginning to get some ideas.
  • #11,172
  • Mar 16, 2018 9:19pm Mar 16, 2018 9:19pm
have backtested EU from 2015 to 2017 and taking all signals as per entry rules. am exploring various exit rules, one based on H1 ATR, mostly end up in loss for 2015 to 2017 except you put large H1 ATR like 10 ATR, then will have positive profit in year where large trend found.

i also try exit at Daily time frame for entry follow MA direction, for entry against Daily direction, i trail it using H1 ATR. this case end uP in profit for the year with trend.

year 2015 is a ranging period for EU, so this method will end up in lossing year.

purpose of writing this is, this is good as one of the trade with trend method. but couldn't just rely on this strategy alone.
  • #11,173
  • Mar 17, 2018 1:06am Mar 17, 2018 1:06am
just a point of view.(the simpliest model)

try to use insidebars to buid a possition in the direction of long term trend.

1. build a basket: trade the pairs from G8 countries + 2 or 4 more pairs at you'r own choice, trade commodities (gold,corn,oil etc.) trade some stocks (because only in US they are more than 16.000 companies trade for example only stocks that are above 30$ or some number and for stocks trade only buy signal, ignore the sell ones, because stock market has a bigger bias to the upside).

2. define long term trend using ema200 on daily charts
3. for long (reverse for sell): after 3 daily bars that closed above ema200 go to lower timeframe (u can use only h1 timeframe or u can use 2 of them, h1 and h4 because we want to stack as many possitions in the direction of the trend)[if on stocks we havedaily bars that closed below ema200 just ignore the setup don't do nothing, wait for bullish trend].
4.a) risk 0.25% from capital on every InsideBar
4.b) risk 0.50% from capital on every InsideBar that has the smallest range in the last 4 bars (tony crabel concept)
4.c) risk 0.75% from capital on every InsideBar that has the smallest range in the last 7 bars (tony crabel concept)
5. if position profitable close jalf of it at 3X initial risk, let the rest jalf to run
6. close the remaining position next day at amrket open if yesterday closed below ema200(use daily ccharts)

from time to time you will have 10 or 20 lossers in a row, but also from time to time you will be able to stack some position that will be 10-200 time bigger than your initial risk, all of them open in the same time. (just think about it)
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #11,174
  • Mar 17, 2018 11:36am Mar 17, 2018 11:36am
Quoting Chrobakx
Hello guys, I have to confess, this week I have been struggling with either close my winning positions or keep them open. Yesterday I closed my two positions EU and UC with 210 pips profit. And today they are still going in the right direction. I really like to see my account in the profit. I also noticed that approximately every week or two there is really nice move in at least one pair with DIBS signal to catch it and grab it minimum 200 pips.
I had the same feeling, especially yesterday. I hoped GU would break 1.4000 (I still think it will) and got frustrated when it stalled. I even broke my own rule and didn't take +50 pips. When it reached my BE at 1.3900, I was outraged and almost closed the position - but somehow had the feeling that it was just some stop hunting or weekly profit taking and decided to double my position. Luckily it bounced back right before my SL. At same time, closed a EU position in a hurry for +80 pips. If EU continues to fall, I will just watch from the outside unless there is another IB sell signal.

All the bold text shows how strong the psychological aspect is. Too much hope/frustration/rule breaking/outrage which don't belong to trading. I was very lucky. Happytrade38 just mentioned some ranging periods when we can struggle to get profits. It's very easy to trust DIBS when you "know" it is profitable, but that trust can disappear in a matter of few days if we don't see any profits - or even worse, see big floating profits evaporate. As you said, Chrobakx: every week or two there is a 200 pips move in some of the majors. Are we able to control our feelings hour after hour during two weeks or more?


Quoting happytrade38
year 2015 is a ranging period for EU, so this method will end up in lossing year. purpose of writing this is, this is good as one of the trade with trend method. but couldn't just rely on this strategy alone.
Last week I backtested the four major pairs. Unfortunately I have only the last 8 months of data. Still, it might be useful since there are some negative months which make the experience realistic. By the way, the current month (March 2018) is the worse so far.

My execution plan is the following:

  1. catch all signals, regardless of the long/medium term trend, as long as the IB is not bigger than 20 pips (I don't want to miss any top/bottom)
  2. one single position (not two as per pure DIBS)
  3. move SL to BE after +15pips
  4. after reaching +100 pips, move SL to +50 pips; for every further +50 pips, move SL accordingly (oh boy, a small 50 pips retracement will kill great positions)
  5. if there is an open order in one direction, don't add further positions until the first one is closed (yes, it's criminal LOL)


I consider this plan quite pessimistic - hopefully it is the worse possible. The biggest profit for a single order was +250 pips. Horrible!

Those are the results (in pips):

PAIR USDCHF EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY TOTAL
JUL17 +20 +160 +120 -10 +290
AUG17 +180 +290 +50 -150 +370
SEP17 0 +50 +60 +330 +440

OCT17 +10 -100 +330 -160 +80
NOV17 -130 +220 +50 -40 +100
DEC17 +130 -100 -80 +50 0

JAN18 +90 +300 +290 +240 +920
FEB18 +190 +110 +40 +190 +530
MAR18 -40 -20 +30 -70 -100

TOTAL +450 +910 +890 +380 +2630

So while I do agree that some pairs can range for a long time, it's possible to compensate the losses by taking shorter profits. Besides that, one pair with bad results can be compensated by a profitable pair.

Eventually someone can backtest both strategies for the last 10 years and find out if the impact of limiting profits is positive or negative.

"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,175
  • Mar 19, 2018 5:41am Mar 19, 2018 5:41am
Considering posting some thoughts/ideas on IBs, and this method. Read part of this thread and the other. Decent. Used to use IBs rather heavily when I first started, but that was what seems a million years ago. I have, lately been looking at more mechanical based entries, and trading less frequently, which always seems a chore. Haven't decided to post here, or start a new thread. Don't have anything ground breaking really, just my own twist on the method discussed here. No evidence that it even works, or has prospects.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #11,176
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:32am Mar 19, 2018 7:32am
Anyway, I'll just post my thoughts here, and see if anyone else has some thoughts/comments or observations.

The twists on the original method are as follows.

1. Use the weekly open instead of the daily open.
2. No trading on MON. Entries only on TUE/WED. Exits only THU/FRI
3. Only one entry per pair, per session.

Now, I will say that I have not tested or traded the original method, nor do I plan to. These amendments where made in keeping with some Peters original concepts and are incorporating a few ideas of my own to cut down on the number trades per week, and give entries a little room to develop.

Also should state that these amendments have not been tested in any capacity. In my opinion back testing will not shed much light on their viability due to the fact that this is a manual method, and we can not recreate actual market conditions.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #11,177
  • Mar 19, 2018 8:03am Mar 19, 2018 8:03am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Don't have anything ground breaking really, just my own twist on the method discussed here. No evidence that it even works, or has prospects.
Spot on. I also don't think there is much (or anything at all) to add to the method mechanics, except for the personal twists to be tested. You are welcome to share your ideas and results.

To post here or on a journal? Good question. I ask it to myself too. As long as it doesn't disturb anybody, I prefer to post here once in a while about my struggles so that, eventually, some new traders might be aware of the mindset challenges related to such a great trading strategy as DIBS.
"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,178
  • Mar 19, 2018 8:43am Mar 19, 2018 8:43am
What a shot on GU! Hope many people are holding longs on it.

From my side, I am happy but not satisfied. Happy for the profit but not satisfied by the way it happened.

My main objective is not to make profit, but to make it consistently and methodologically. Borrowing PayTheLimit's terminology, it should be "mechanical". Profit cannot happen out of luck, or due to a single nice shot.

On the daily chart, GU seemed squeezed. Feelings: "it should follow the trend and go up". The question: can I hold any long position without being stopped?

So the trouble was: my entry on March 9th @1.3818 was stopped right away on BE (disgusting!) and the entry on March 13th @1.3895 should have been closed anywhere between BE and a maximum of +100pips.

I was stubborn enough to risk twice as much, doubling my position on Friday. It paid off but was totally out of the DIBS strategy: besides wasting +50pips from the theoretical TP, I could have gotten a -40 pips loss (2 x 20) for not following the rules. It was not different from the ominous "revenge trading"...
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"The reason I was born and came into the world is to testify to the truth."
  • #11,179
  • Mar 19, 2018 9:01am Mar 19, 2018 9:01am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Anyway, I'll just post my thoughts here, and see if anyone else has some thoughts/comments or observations. The twists on the original method are as follows. 1. Use the weekly open instead of the daily open. 2. No trading on MON. Entries only on TUE/WED. Exits only THU/FRI 3. Only one entry per pair, per session. Now, I will say that I have not tested or traded the original method, nor do I plan to. These amendments where made in keeping with some Peters original concepts and are incorporating a few ideas of my own to cut down on the number trades...
Hi!

Thank you for your twists!
I did some tests by programming the rules and my conclusion is DIBS is not working with currencies.
There is small edge on DAX, XAUUSD, XTIUSD. But it is not enough for me.
May I ask, how you make your entries? Still based on 1H DIBS?

With regards,
SP
  • #11,180
  • Mar 19, 2018 9:10am Mar 19, 2018 9:10am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Anyway, I'll just post my thoughts here, and see if anyone else has some thoughts/comments or observations. The twists on the original method are as follows. 1. Use the weekly open instead of the daily open. 2. No trading on MON. Entries only on TUE/WED. Exits only THU/FRI 3. Only one entry per pair, per session. Now, I will say that I have not tested or traded the original method, nor do I plan to. These amendments where made in keeping with some Peters original concepts and are incorporating a few ideas of my own to cut down on the number trades...
At least your iterations make market sense.

1. Good. The weekly open is the only universal open.
2. Good. Monday the range is usually small and you will get chopped up if you day trade. The market needs time ingest data.
3. Great. Stops over trading and revenge trading. Now I read on one of these threads that a few do not understand over trading. Over trading is throwing good money after bad. If you have been wrong a couple of times today, then you think you are smarter than price. Chill out and wait for the market to clearly tell you what to do.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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